In recent months, real estate regulation and control has shown the characteristics of "pinching the tip", that is, beware of excessive rise in real estate prices and speculation in some areas. Not only the mortgage policy, but also the purchase policy and land policy in many places. According to industry insiders, while the regulation of real estate is tightening, it will still be the main tone of relevant policies to prevent the excessive leverage ratio of residents buying houses in the future.
First, mortgage interest rates in some key cities have risen.
A person related to the mortgage business of a bank in Nanjing told me that in order to prevent the property market from overheating, the relevant local regulatory authorities intend to guide the mortgage interest rate to rise by a certain percentage. At present, the bank's overall mortgage business quota has also been tightened.
The director of the business department of a branch of a state-owned bank in Hangzhou said that the interest rate of the bank's first home loan has been raised from 9.5% to 20%, and the loan amount has to wait. A related person from another bank in Hangzhou also said that the interest rate of the first home mortgage also rose to 8%, while the interest rate of the second home mortgage remained at 10%, and there was no change. The source also said that the current mortgage quota is relatively tight.
According to the latest monitoring data released by Rong 360 Big Data Research Institute a week ago, there are 1 1 banks in Tianjin, and the interest rate of the first home loan has risen from the benchmark to a minimum of 9.5 fold. Five banks in Suzhou have raised the interest rate of the first home loan, and many banks in Nanning have also raised the interest rate of home loans. In addition, the mortgage interest rate in Ningbo has recently started to rise quietly. Bank of China, Bank of Communications and Xingye took the lead in adjusting the interest rate of the first home loan from the benchmark to 10%, and the interest rate of the second home loan from the benchmark to 15%.
Overall, the current rise in mortgage interest rates is mainly concentrated in some key cities. A person related to the mortgage business of a large state-owned bank said that the mortgage policy at the head office level has not changed significantly, but the local government will make adjustments according to market conditions and local government regulatory requirements.
Huatai Securities released a report saying that most of the cities where the mortgage interest rate is raised or the quota is controlled are cities with high real estate market prosperity this year. Statistics show that the price index of new commercial housing in 70 cities increased by 1 1.3% year-on-year and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter from May 2065438 to May 2009. The recent adjustment of mortgage interest rates in Chengdu, Fuzhou, Nanning, Wuhan and Xi 'an all exceeded the average level of 70 cities.
Second, the leverage ratio of residents has risen too fast, and we still need to be vigilant.
According to industry insiders, while the regulation of real estate is tightening, it will still be the main tone of relevant policies to prevent the excessive leverage ratio of residents buying houses in the future. According to the data of Rong360 Big Data Research Institute, the leverage ratio of China residents in 20 18 was 53.2%, far lower than that of American residents (76. 1%). However, insiders also said that although the absolute leverage ratio of Chinese residents is low at present, we still need to be alert to the risk of excessive growth.
Ren Zeping, president of Evergrande Research Institute, said that we should still be alert to the risk that the leverage ratio of residents will rise too fast. After the international financial crisis in 2008, China's residential sector experienced three rounds of rapid leverage, and the leverage level quickly moved closer from emerging market economies to developed economies, and the security space was rapidly consumed. The excessive increase in the leverage ratio of residents will lead to the deterioration of bank assets, the accumulation of financial risks and the suppression of residents' consumption growth.
This issue has also aroused the high vigilance of regulators. Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, recently said at the 11th Lujiazui Forum that in recent years, the leverage ratio of households in some cities in China has risen rapidly, and the debt ratio of a considerable proportion of households has reached an unsustainable level. More seriously, about half of the new savings resources are invested in the real estate sector. Excessive financing in the real estate industry not only squeezes the credit resources of other industries, but also easily encourages real estate investment speculation, making its bubble problem more serious. He said that the real estate market has a strong regional nature, and it is normal for housing prices in different regions to rise and fall. However, "the house is for living, not for speculation". History has proved that all countries that rely too much on real estate to achieve and maintain economic prosperity will eventually pay a heavy price. All residents and enterprises that rely on blind investment in speculative real estate to manage their finances will eventually find that it is not cost-effective.
Third, stabilize housing prices and land prices, and the regulatory situation is obvious.
The tightening of mortgage policy can be seen as a microcosm of the tightening of overall real estate regulation. According to the latest report of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in the first half of 20 19, the real estate control policies were issued as many as 25 1 times, which was 3 1% higher than the 92 times in the same period of 20 18. From June, the number of real estate control policies issued across the country reached 46 times, which was also a substantial increase compared with May.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that before 20 18 1 1, the property market regulation policies issued by various localities were mainly tightened, and from 20 18 1, the tightened property market regulation policies issued by various localities decreased significantly. On April 19 this year, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to emphasize that "houses are for living, not for speculation". Since then, the tightening trend of real estate control policies has once again appeared.
According to industry sources, in recent months, real estate regulation has shown the characteristics of "pinching the tip", that is, beware of excessive rise in real estate prices in some areas.
In terms of the property market, at the end of April and mid-May, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development twice issued an early warning to 10 cities whose prices had risen sharply before. Subsequently, Suzhou convened more than 30 real estate developers to hold a forum and pointed out that the increase in local house prices should be controlled within 5% this year. Xi has also issued the strictest purchase restriction order after the house price has been rising for 39 consecutive months, that is, since June 20th, families who have moved into the household registration from outside the city must meet the conditions of paying social insurance or personal income tax 1 year or 12 months in this city. Families who are not registered in Xi city need to pay personal income tax or social insurance in this city for 5 years before they can buy a house in Xi city.
In terms of land, Dongguan recently released the latest land quotation details. Under the new rules, land auction is no longer the highest bidder, and the final transaction price of land is the average price closest to the final offer of all bidders. Doing so can limit the birth of the "land king".
Jaco, chief analyst of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said that the regulation in the first half of the year showed a "bilateral multipoint" effect. "Bilateral" means that under the policy of the city, the policy of hot cities is generally tight, and cities with the risk of falling house prices will introduce the policy of "supporting the market"; "Multi-point" is reflected in the regulation not only for housing prices, but also for land prices, sales restrictions, purchase restrictions, provident fund and other dimensions.
Qin Hong, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China, said that the current requirements and objectives of real estate market management are three stabilities that can be quantified and assessed: stable land prices, stable house prices and stable expectations. Stable land price is the premise, and stable house price is the result. To prevent a series of subsequent economic, financial, social and urban risks caused by excessive overdraft of housing prices, it is fundamental to stabilize expectations, and it is necessary to establish a clear expectation judgment on future real estate policies and real estate markets.
Through the introduction of relevant information in the morning, we can know that China's housing price control policy has been continuously implemented and improved this year, especially for some key cities, its control data will be more obvious.