Today, the central bank announced that it decided to implement inclusive finance's targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio on March 6, 2020, and targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 to 1 percentage point for banks that meet the assessment criteria. In addition, eligible joint-stock commercial banks will receive an additional directional deposit reserve ratio of 65,438+0 percentage points to support the issuance of loans in inclusive finance. The above-mentioned targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio released long-term funds of 550 billion yuan.
The People's Bank of China implements a prudent monetary policy and is more flexible and moderate. Give a more prominent position to supporting the recovery and development of the real economy, do not engage in flood irrigation, give consideration to internal and external balance, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and adapt the growth of monetary credit and social financing to economic development, so as to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.
The National People's Congress will deploy RRR cuts, and the central bank will make frequent noises.
It is worth noting that on the eve of RRR cut, the State Council has just made clear arrangements. The executive meeting of the State Council held on March 10 demanded that inclusive finance and targeted cuts to required reserve ratios measures should be taken as soon as possible to increase RRR reduction for joint-stock banks, encourage commercial banks to increase loan support for small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, help them resume their work and production, and promote the reduction of financing costs.
At the same time, recently, the central bank has repeatedly stated that it will choose to reduce the deposit reserve ratio as an opportunity to guide the overall market interest rate and loan interest rate down and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.
Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, said on February 27 that he would take the opportunity to implement the dynamic assessment of the 20 19 inclusive finance targeted cuts to required reserve ratios reserve ratio to release long-term liquidity; In addition, in an exclusive interview published by the Financial Times, the central bank's competent media, on February 22, Liu Guoqiang said, "With the targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio, inclusive finance will also make annual dynamic adjustments in the near future. It is expected that more banks that meet the standards will enjoy preferential policies, which will further release the liquidity of the banking system."
Chen, deputy governor of the central bank, said on February 24 that it will continue to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity; It is necessary to make greater efforts to make good use of structural monetary policy tools and give full play to the role of inclusive monetary policy tools such as supporting agriculture, refinancing and rediscounting. Recently, inclusive finance has made an annual dynamic adjustment to the targeted RRR reduction, and more qualified banks may get preferential policies in due course.
Why is it lowered at this time?
"RRR reduction has the effect of' killing three birds with one arrow'. First, it can release long-term liquidity; Secondly, it can reduce the cost of bank debt; Third, it can send a strong stable expectation signal to the market. " Dong Ximiao, a distinguished researcher at the National Finance and Development Laboratory, told the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei.
It is worth mentioning that after the outbreak of the epidemic, the central bank strengthened counter-cyclical regulation. After the Spring Festival holiday, 3 trillion yuan of liquidity was released in the open market through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, 300 billion yuan of special refinancing loans and 500 billion yuan of special rediscount loans were set up, and the reverse repurchase and MLF interest rates were lowered to guide LPR downward, which helped alleviate the problem of insufficient liquidity of enterprises.
Although there are various support policies, many small and micro enterprises still face difficulties in survival and production, and need more powerful and accurate financial assistance policies. Inclusive finance's RRR reduction is also an urgent need. Dong Ximiao said that a prudent monetary policy will be more flexible and moderate. It is possible to reduce RRR in an all-round way and the deposit reserve ratio in a targeted manner, and it is also necessary to reduce the benchmark deposit interest rate.
First of all, increase the RRR reduction of joint-stock banks.
For the first time, this policy specifically mentions "increasing efforts to reduce the RRR of joint-stock banks", which is undoubtedly a major attraction. In the opinion of many experts, the debt source and cost pressure of joint-stock banks are greater, which helps small and medium-sized banks to better guard against risks and enhance their ability to serve the real economy. It is a continuous optimization of the policy framework of "three grades and two excellent" deposit reserve ratio.
Dong Ximiao believes that there are two reasons for increasing RRR reduction for joint-stock banks: First, the first batch of 300 billion special refinancing loans did not cover joint-stock banks, and the second batch of 500 billion refinancing and rediscounting mainly covered small and medium-sized banks (such as city commercial banks and rural commercial banks); Second, joint-stock banks have neither large bank outlets all over the country, nor city commercial banks and rural commercial banks rooted in local geographical and popularity advantages, so the debt pressure and cost are relatively greater.
According to Wen Bin, the chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, apart from large banks, joint-stock banks are the main service force in inclusive finance, and additional RRR interest rate cuts will help to increase loan support for small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. "After the implementation of a series of rescue measures such as temporarily delaying the repayment of loan principal and interest and reducing overdue penalty interest during the epidemic, it will inevitably have an impact on the profitability and asset quality of banks. Compared with large banks, joint-stock banks need additional policy support such as RRR reduction. "
Is it possible to cut interest rates later?
Analysts said that with the development of the epidemic, it is necessary for the central bank to further intensify countercyclical adjustment, comprehensively use monetary policy tools such as open market operation, directional reduction of deposit reserve ratio and refinancing, keep the overall market liquidity reasonable and sufficient, and implement special support policies for weak economic links to create a good financial environment for the development of the real economy.
In addition to RRR cuts, interest rate cuts may not be far off. In fact, with the increasingly prominent impact of the epidemic on the global economy, since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, many central banks have joined the "army of interest rate cuts", including Britain, Australia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Canada and other central banks announced interest rate cuts. In addition, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Macao Monetary Authority also followed suit to cut interest rates.
"Because LPR is linked to MLF interest rate, lowering MLF interest rate to guide LPR is the smoothest path to achieve cost reduction under the condition of interest rate marketization." The chief fixed income analyst of CITIC Securities clearly predicts that there will be regular MLF operation on March 16, and it is expected that the MLF interest rate will be lowered by 5- 10 basis points with high probability, so as to guide the LPR to continue its downward trend on the 20th, release a more "flexible and moderate" monetary policy signal, and further reduce the financing cost of entity enterprises.
Wen Bin also believes that LPR will further decline on March 20th, which will push down the financing cost of enterprises. In addition, banks are still facing greater debt cost pressure, and timely and moderate reduction of the benchmark deposit interest rate will be an option for the next stage of monetary policy. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)