Perhaps it is based on the above underlying logic that there seems to be a causal relationship behind the rise in housing prices. For the post-70 s group, buying a house is for life, for a better life. After all, the traditional concept of marriage has influenced generations. For the post-80s generation, seeing the rapid rise of housing prices, the wealth of those who once bought a house has doubled directly, and even the freedom of wealth has been realized. For this reason, many people began to breed the impulse to buy a house, perhaps not to live, perhaps not to live, but the direct impact is to stimulate market transactions.
On the other hand, at this time, for the post-90 s group, social pressure bears the brunt, such as working, getting married and buying a house. In fact, to be fair, most young people buy houses not for investment, but for living, but because of high housing prices. See here, have you known each other before? After several rounds of regulation, the original intention of buying a house seems to have returned to the original point.
If the above underlying logic holds, let's review the market structure in recent years. Is the house no longer valuable this time? Judging from the ratio of house price to income, the average value in China is 13.3, which means that you can afford a house only if you don't eat or drink for 14 years. Of course, this is only part of the city. For first-tier cities, the ratio of house price to income has already exceeded 20, and many people dare not think about it. Perhaps because they can't afford to buy a house, "escape from the north to the south" has become the slogan of contemporary young people.
In fact, for this, the state's attitude towards the real estate industry has turned to an inflection point. Looking at the time axis, as early as 20 18, a report of China Academy of Social Sciences showed that the real estate had an inflection point in pulling the national economy, and even had a tendency to restrain the real economy. There is a simple reason. When family wealth is concentrated in large consumption, is there any other consumption? By 20 19, monetary policy had a steady trend, the central bank stopped cutting interest rates and RRR, and destocking and shed reform were gradually stopped by local governments. On the other hand, this year, developers are also exhausted in the face of huge debts, and even Evergrande can only restructure debts to repay debts. At the same time, the means of restricting land price and mortgage are endless.
Many successful cases have proved that under the high-pressure control, the effect is immediate, and the housing prices in more and more cities have dropped significantly, such as Hefei, Zhengzhou, Qingdao and the surrounding areas of Beijing. Even if house prices in some cities do not fluctuate, the phenomenon that the number of houses in the market only increases is enough to prove that this turning point is coming.
Strictly speaking, the pressure of this worthless house does not come from falling. First-and second-tier cities are supported by ceiling prices, even if house prices want to fall, I am afraid it is unrealistic. On the other hand, because there are too many stock markets in third-and fourth-tier cities, it will not be affected in the short term. Then why is there such a conclusion? The most critical factor is the existence of market expectations. It has become common sense that the policy orientation is unshakable and developers offer preferential treatment. If you are a property buyer, will you take the initiative to accept the offer? The answer is obviously not. In fact, when it comes to this, I believe everyone can see at a glance that the cost and risk of buying a house have soared due to the long liquidation period caused by the sideways market. Relatively speaking, houses don't just go up and down as before.
Perhaps for most people, they don't quite understand the impact of the New Deal, but for developers, they began to prepare early. Sun Hongbin, chairman of Sunac, said that debt reduction is the top priority for all developers at present. Only alive, they are qualified to speak. In the past, developers had money and buyers had no money. Now everyone has no money.
Generally speaking, the layout of the new round of regulation strategy is very simple, and the key is to stimulate market consumption and increase people's income. Chen, an economist at Renmin University in China, said that India's consumption rate is 66%, Brazil's is 68%, and China's consumption rate is only 39%, which is not as good as India's and totally does not match the existing economic level. At this time, I want to ask you a question, that is, where did the people spend their last money? Does everyone know the answer?