On February 8, Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau issued the Notice on Establishing the Reference Price Release Mechanism for Second-hand Housing Transactions, indicating that it will establish a reference price release mechanism for second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen. With the release of this notice and the first reference price catalogue, 3,595 communities were "priced" one by one.
However, there is a big gap between the reference price issued by the Housing and Construction Bureau and the market price, which makes most real estate assets "shrink" greatly, causing heated discussion in the market, among which luxury property assets are more serious, and even the housing with a unit price of 6.5438+0.9 million has "fallen" to 6.5438+0.3 million.
The "price difference" between the reference price and the market listing price is obvious
Some buyers told the National Business Daily that the original intention of the Housing and Construction Bureau to release the transaction reference price was good, but the data was not particularly accurate. At present, the official price is much lower than the price of the community they are concerned about, and they are very confused about it.
So how is this second-hand housing reference price list calculated?
According to the introduction of Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, Shenzhen Real Estate and Urban Construction Development Research Center, on the basis of investigation and analysis, based on the online price of second-hand houses and referring to the prices of surrounding first-hand houses, comprehensively formed the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in residential quarters in the city, and released the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in 3,595 residential quarters in the city according to the principle of full coverage and regional grid.
The reference price is regularly published on the official website of Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, WeChat official account and Shenzhen real estate information platform.
Comparing the reference transaction price of 3,595 residential second-hand houses released this time with the listing price in the current market, we can find that the reference price released this time is obviously lower than the listing price and transaction price in the market, especially the "price difference" between high-priced luxury houses and high-quality school districts is more obvious.
Take China Resources City, which was hot last year, as an example. The latest issue of Runxi of this project once attracted national attention because of last year's "10,000 people making innovations".
According to the National Business Daily's inquiry about Zhuge's housing search, it was learned that the highest transaction price of the residential area in the past has exceeded 200,000 yuan/square meter. In the second half of last year, the average transaction price was 6.5438+0.7 million yuan/square meter, while the current average listing price was about 6.5438+0.9 million yuan/square meter, but the reference price released this time was only 6.5438+0.32 million yuan/square meter, equivalent to 73 yuan.
In response to this data difference, shortly after the release of the policy, some netizens broke the news that some buyers had complained to the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau at telephone number 12345.
However, although there are differences in data, the release of Shenzhen policy is still highly praised by the industry. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that with the publication of second-hand housing price data in Shenzhen, it is expected to become a reference template for other cities in the country. There has always been a problem in the second-hand housing market in the past, that is, the transaction situation is unclear and opaque. This release in Shenzhen shows that it will continue to guide the market to expect stability from the perspective of information disclosure, which has a positive effect.
The sword means that the prices of second-hand houses and new houses are upside down.
What is the role of the reference price of second-hand housing transactions? The Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau responded that releasing the reference price of second-hand housing transactions is conducive to increasing the information disclosure of second-hand housing transactions, guiding rational market transactions, guiding real estate brokers to reasonably release listing prices, guiding commercial banks to rationally issue second-hand housing loans, preventing and controlling personal housing credit risks, and stabilizing market expectations.
Due to the long-standing contradiction between supply and demand and the high elasticity of products in Shenzhen real estate market, Shenzhen property market is favored by buyers from all over the world. The transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen is the highest in first-tier cities, with an average transaction price of 66,000 yuan/square meter. This price level is more than twice the average price of second-hand residential online signing in Guangzhou.
Image source: Picture Network
The rise in housing prices in Shenzhen is largely caused by the rise in second-hand housing prices. The price of new houses can be regulated by land transfer price limit, pre-sale pricing, batch sales control and developer's "window guidance", but it is relatively difficult to regulate the second-hand housing market, so the transaction volume and price of second-hand houses are driven by thousands of traders in Qian Qian. At the end of 20 19, the owners of COFCO Phoenix Lane and Yuheng Penang "violently raised" the price of second-hand houses. The unit price per square meter of second-hand houses in the same lot is higher than that of newly-built first-hand houses, that is, the price is upside down.
According to the information times, according to CRIC's incomplete statistics, there will be a second-hand house upside-down project in 2 1 city in 2020. Among them, Nanjing has the most upside-down projects, reaching 92. In addition, there are more than 50 upside-down projects in Chengdu, Xi and Changsha. There are many projects in Nanjing, Hangzhou and Ningbo due to the upside-down prices of second-hand commodities. Although the policy regulation is overweight, the market is still hot. Judging from the upside-down range of a set of second-hand houses, Shenzhen is the most serious, with the upside-down range of the average transaction price of second-hand houses and new houses reaching 12%.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, compared with 65438+February in 20 19, the second-hand house price in Shenzhen increased by 14. 1% in 2020, ranking first in the country. According to Le Youjia's data, the average transaction price in Guimiao area of Nanshan and Baoan central area increased by over 60% year-on-year, and that in Bagualing area of Futian increased by 58.97% year-on-year. Futian Baihua, Nanshan Nantou and Baoan Shajing rose by more than 40%.
According to Time Finance, Zheng Shulun, managing director of SZSE Zhongyuan, believes that the reference price announced by this policy has released the signal that the government should start to control the price of second-hand houses. There is no precedent for the control of second-hand housing in Shenzhen. The second-hand housing has been rising all the way, and the consequence is that the first-hand housing is seriously upside down, which distorts the trading situation of the whole market.
Zheng Shulun said that compared with the direct price limit of new houses, the control of the second-hand housing market is very difficult. The transaction subjects of second-hand houses are different small owners and buyers, and the information from quotation to transaction is relatively closed and extremely asymmetric. Therefore, it is difficult to grasp the transaction price of second-hand housing, which is high and low, and the trend is chaotic. The government issued a reference price release mechanism for second-hand housing transactions. It can be seen that the government hopes to increase transparency, make market transactions in a transparent scene, and guide the development of second-hand housing prices in a more reasonable direction.
The specific implementation rules still need to be observed.
Owners' withdrawal and reluctance to sell may reappear.
In fact, as early as last year, Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association has been selecting some hot real estate projects as observation objects, collecting the listing information published online by major institutional platforms, forming an "observation table of sample real estate quotation data in hot spots in Shenzhen", which is published regularly every month.
So, how hot is the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen? In addition to the price, the volume can also see the heat.
According to the data analysis of the online sign of second-hand houses in Shenzhen Housing Society, in 2020, the online sign of second-hand houses in Shenzhen (including self-service) 120295 sets, an increase of 17.3% compared with the data in 20 19. If the self-service online sign is excluded, the number of online signs in 2020 will hit a new high of 20 16.
According to China, a brokerage firm, Hua Hong, director of the Development Research Department of Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, believes that from the current situation, only the guiding prices have been issued in various districts, and the details of specific operation and implementation have not been announced yet, so we need to continue to observe. There is indeed a difference between the guide price and the listing price in the display, and the result will have a direct impact on the expectation, that is, the wait-and-see atmosphere will reappear. For the seller, there may be withdrawal of orders and reluctance to sell in the next time period, which of course also belongs to the market fluctuation after the policy. But on the whole, the reaction of the specific market has to wait until the corresponding implementation rules are issued, and then see how the bank's wealth management side can follow up, which can be seen specifically.