Dagong International Credit Rating Company 20101KLOC-0/0, a private rating agency in China, said that the United States launched a new round of quantitative easing monetary policy, which showed that its actual solvency deteriorated and the government's willingness to repay debts dropped significantly. Therefore, the credit rating of American local and foreign currency countries was downgraded from AA to A+, and the credit outlook was adjusted to "negative".

After the United States announced a new round of quantitative easing measures, all countries put forward a series of sharp criticisms. Xia Bin, member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of China, also said in June 10 that the effect of US monetary policy is similar to printing money without restraint. The United States can gain temporary benefits by spamming money and make profits for the two-party elections in the United States, but in the long run, the dollar will definitely depreciate.

Juncker 10, Chairman of Euro Group, severely criticized the decision of the Federal Reserve in Brussels on 8 October. He said that the United States should not adopt more national egoism, but should consider the concerns it brings to the international community.

However, analysts said in an interview that whether the introduction of a new round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States will affect its national credit rating remains to be considered.

Wang Zhihao, chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank in Greater China, said in an interview with CBN that considering a country's credit rating generally depends on many factors, such as macroeconomic situation, financial capacity, political risks and so on. He believes that there is deflationary pressure in the United States now, so there is no inflationary pressure in the short term, so the macroeconomic situation will not change much.

He believes that the current launch of QE2 in the United States has increased political risks, and some market participants have begun to worry that the depreciation of the US dollar and the high cost of domestic medical reform in the United States will also affect the long-term financial capacity of the United States. However, the national integrity of the United States is not doubtful, but he thinks it is not good to evaluate whether the national credit rating of the United States should be downgraded.

In an interview with reporters, a fixed-income securities analyst of a brokerage firm said that although the launch of QE2 in the United States has not yet reached the level of affecting its national credit rating, it does have a negative impact on its national credit.

Although this statement made by China's rating agencies did not arouse repercussions among financial institutions, the report that China's rating agencies downgraded the credit rating of the United States was reprinted by many domestic media and attracted the attention of many foreign media. Both The Wall Street Journal and Reuters reported the news.

The first financial call contacted the vice president of the bond trading department of a large domestic brokerage firm. He said that he had not read Dagong International's rating report, and they paid little attention to the evaluation of domestic rating agencies.

However, Dagong International's domestic competitor, a related person of a rating agency, thinks that the rating report is self-hype.

However, the disadvantages of China's rating agencies in the international discourse power still attract the attention of analysts.

The aforementioned fixed-income securities analyst of the brokerage firm told CBN that several major rating agencies in the United States downgraded the sovereign ratings of several European countries, which ignited the fuse of the European debt crisis. Therefore, after the financial crisis, countries began to pay attention to the importance of rating agencies for national economic security. China's rating agencies will have no right to speak internationally and will be subject to the three major rating agencies in the United States in the future.

So far, several major domestic rating agencies have not obtained international qualification certification. The three major rating agencies in the United States have occupied two-thirds of the rating market in China. Not long ago, the US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected Dagong International's application for practicing qualification in the United States on the grounds that it could not conduct "cross-border supervision". Downgrading from A+ to A, the prospect is negative.

The US debt crisis has been lifted, but its solvency is still in doubt. On August 3, Dagong International, a domestic rating agency, took the lead in issuing an announcement, announcing that the credit rating of American domestic and foreign currency countries would be downgraded from A+ to A, with a negative outlook. Dagong International believes that the US Congress has passed the government's resolution to raise the debt ceiling. Although this can enable the government to continue to borrow new debts to repay old debts, it has not changed the general trend that the growth rate of national debt exceeds the growth rate of economic and fiscal revenue. This incident has become the turning point of the further decline in the solvency of the US government.

The decline of American solvency is irreversible.

Contrary to western rating agencies Moody's and Fitch, which continue to maintain the highest rating in the United States, Dagong International clearly pointed out in the announcement that the solvency of the US government is declining. The concrete manifestations are as follows: first, the political system abuses exposed by the struggle of American political parties show that it is difficult for the American government to fundamentally manage the national sovereign debt crisis, and the interests of American creditors are not guaranteed by the political and economic system; Second, raising the debt ceiling in the United States temporarily avoided government debt default, but did not improve the country's solvency. The increase of government debt burden will push the US sovereign debt crisis to deepen. Third, the reduction rate of the US fiscal deficit is much lower than the growth rate of new debt, and the fiscal policy of making ends meet will inevitably continue to promote the rise of the US government debt level; Fourth, the U.S. Congress has not formed a constructive resolution on how to fundamentally solve the country's lack of economic growth momentum, which shows that the U.S. government cannot solve the fundamental impact of low economic growth, high fiscal deficit and rising debt on its solvency by increasing real wealth creation, and the decline of the country's solvency is irreversible.

Professor Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Information Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, said in an interview with this reporter that Dagong International, as a new rating agency, broke the monopoly of the three major rating agencies in the United States and took the lead in issuing its own independent voice, which is conducive to the world to understand the real situation of American economic development. Credit rating agencies should be fair, independent and objective, and should provide information that is conducive to the rational choice of market participants. However, rating agencies in the United States maintain a high-level credit rating for their own countries in order to continue low-cost financing around the world and make cheap use of international resources.

Let the world know the real America

Dagong International analyzed in the announcement that the approval of the US Congress to raise the government debt ceiling further shows that many factors affecting the country's solvency will not change positively in a long period of time, and the serious imbalance between the country's wealth creation ability and the country's huge consumption will not change fundamentally. Dagong International speculates that the United States will inevitably launch the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the next step, which will plunge the world economy into a full-scale crisis, and the status of the US dollar will also be fundamentally shaken in this process.

"American twin deficits (trade and fiscal deficit) is notorious in the world. They borrow money from people all over the world to live. Raising the national debt ceiling this time is only a temporary relief, which is beneficial to stabilizing the market in the short term. " Xu Hongcai further explained to reporters: "The two parties in the US Congress are basically the same. In the long run, they have no fundamental will to change the economic model and lifestyle of "living beyond their means and being heavily in debt". Therefore, Dagong International downgraded the sovereign credit rating of the United States this time. On the one hand, it reminds Americans that it is time to make great efforts to solve the fiscal deficit problem, on the other hand, it is also to let the world know a real America. "

"AAA means there is no risk and A means there is risk. Now only Dagong International sends such a message to the world: be careful of risks when investing in the United States, which is not only a warning to the US government, but also can prevent creditors from losing their money. " Guan Jianzhong, chairman and president of Dagong International Credit Rating Co., Ltd., told this reporter that Dagong International's independent opinion that "the incident of raising the debt ceiling in the United States has become a turning point in the further decline of the US government's solvency" is to let the world know that the United States is not the "safe harbor and safe haven for investment" it used to be.

The world rating market needs to break the monopoly

The wrong rating of the United States has repeatedly led to the credit crisis of the world rating, which has led to the imbalance of the international creditor's rights and debts system. Insiders pointed out that the international rating system dominated by the largest debtor country can no longer bear the world rating responsibility under the background of credit globalization, and reforming the existing rating system is an important prerequisite for managing and preventing the credit crisis. The world rating market needs more voices.

Wu Hong, head of the research group "Credit Rating and National Financial Security" and inspector of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group Office, believes that at present, the national credit rating is being upgraded to the national strategic level, and it is becoming a trend to resist the current unfair international rating system by mastering the right to speak in rating, which has created a rare historical opportunity for China to participate in the formulation of new international rating rules and strive for the right to speak in international rating.

Xu Hongcai pointed out that a reasonable new credit rating order needs to develop and strengthen rating agencies in emerging economies. We should cultivate our own independent rating agencies and encourage the development of national brands in order to have our own voice in the world.

Dagong International's AAA credit rating of the Ministry of Railways was questioned.

The rating is higher than China's national credit.

On August 8, 20 1 1, the Ministry of Railways issued a three-month ultra-short loan with an interest rate of 5.55%. The issuance was comprehensively evaluated by Dagong International Credit Rating Company, and the long-term credit rating of the main body of the Ministry of Railways was AAA.

Previously, Dagong International released China's first national credit rating report, "Fifty Dagong 20 10 Credit Rating Report", in which Dagong International gave China a credit rating of AA+. In other words, the credit rating of the Ministry of Railways actually exceeds the national credit of China.

Dagong's AAA rating failed to reassure the Ministry of Railways, but its credibility was questioned.

According to Dagong's international rating standard, AAA indicates that the debtor has a very strong ability to repay the principal and interest. There is almost no risk in buying such bonds. At the mid-year working meeting of 20 1 1, Liu Ye said that he would sound an alarm for banks: even if the railway loan can repay about 6 billion interest every year, when can he get the principal of 1 more than one trillion?

In this regard, Meng Gang, director of Dagong International Rating Department, responded in an interview, "The reason why the Ministry of Railways was rated AAA is because in our view, the Ministry of Railways is not an independent legal person, but a state organ and an enterprise legal person. This dual identity shows that the bonds issued by the Ministry of Railways are issued by the Central implicit government guarantee and are part of the generalized national debt. If the Ministry of Railways cannot pay, the state will repay the debt on its behalf. Therefore, the risk of default by the Ministry of Railways will not increase significantly. "

Although the bonds of the Ministry of Railways have obtained the rating equivalent to sovereign debt, the market does not seem to recognize it, and its borrowing cost is still rising gradually. The bidding results show that the winning bid rate of the Ministry of Railways for three months is 5.55%. In the secondary market, the interest rate of 90-day ultra-short-term financing bonds of the Ministry of Railways is 5.20%. At the same time, the interest rate of 20 billion five-year treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance on behalf of local governments on that day was 4. 12%. Dagong released 2065 438+00 50 credit rating report (part of it)

1, AA-level country with local currency.

Local currency countries include Norway, Australia, Denmark, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Singapore and New Zealand.

2. A-level countries with local currency

The A A-rated countries in local currency mainly include China, Canada, Netherlands, Germany, the United States, Saudi Arabia, France, Britain, South Korea and Japan. Most A A A countries maintain very strong strength in at least three or four of the five core rating factors, but there are some defects in one or two other factors, which makes their solvency risk resistance lower than that of AAA countries.

3. A-level countries in local currency

A-level countries in local currency are: Belgium, Chile, Spain, South Africa, Malaysia, Estonia, Russia, Poland, Israel, Italy, Portugal and Brazil.

Dagong responded: Four factors determine that the AAA credit rating of the Ministry of Railways countries and enterprises cannot be compared with the fourth issue of 20 1 1 issued by the Ministry of Railways on August 8, with a total amount of 20 billion yuan and a 90-day ultra-short-term financing bill. Dagong International Credit Rating Co., Ltd., as the credit rating agency of this project, gave the main credit rating of AAA to the Ministry of Railways, which caused social concern and controversy. On June 38+03, the head of Dagong International accepted an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency on the credit rating of the Ministry of Railways.

Four factors determine the AAA credit rating of the Ministry of Railways.

The credit ratings of countries and enterprises are not comparable.

The improvement of coupon rate is not directly related to its solvency.

Reducing the fare and speed will not have a substantial impact on the solvency of the Ministry of Railways.

Dagong International: In Dagong's credit rating standard system, national credit rating and enterprise credit rating belong to two different disciplines. Therefore, the local currency AA+ granted by Dagong to China is not necessarily related to the AAA credit rating of the Ministry of Railways, so it is not comparable.