With the implementation of a package of policies to stabilize the economy, a series of measures to promote consumption have been introduced. According to the data released by the central bank, the personal consumption loan data turned positive in May. To some extent, it shows that interest rate cuts have played a certain role in promoting the growth of consumer loans. According to industry insiders, the effect of making loans may be lagging behind. With the stability of epidemic prevention and control and steady growth policies, consumer demand will further recover. At the same time, Ji Xiang, global managing partner of McKinsey, called on banks and other financial institutions to take this opportunity to pay attention to customers' needs, so as to better meet their needs and spending power. This bank is not the only one with low interest rates to stimulate consumption vitality and reduce loan interest rates. For example, the provident fund consumer loan launched by a state-owned bank in Henan has a minimum annual interest rate of 3.7% and a maximum loan of 300,000 yuan; The consumer loan provided by another state-owned bank, with the lowest interest rate of 3.85%, can enjoy 28 days of full interest-free, and can be lent every second. Not only that, some banks have also launched various promotional activities, such as China Merchants Bank's flash loan, which can enjoy 7.8% discount coupons from June 2 to June 16, with a minimum annual interest rate of 3.95%. For example, Guangfa Bank provides customers with loan interest rate coupons and other services through "group", "lottery" and "targeted invitation" to further reduce their financing costs. According to the data released by the central bank, in March, the interest rate of new household other consumer loans was 7.68%, which was 67 and 4 1 basis point lower than that at the beginning of the year and the same period of last year respectively. According to the monitoring data of Rong 360 Digital Technology Research Institute, in the first quarter of 2023, the average interest rate of personal consumption loan products of state-owned banks in March was 4.20%, 17BP was lower than the level of 65,438+at the end of February last year; In the first quarter, the interest rate of personal consumption loan products of joint-stock banks first fell and then rose, and the average level in March was 4.92%, down 3BP from the end of last year. It can be seen that the interest rates of consumer loans launched by some banks have been significantly lowered recently. According to a set of data released by the central bank, in May, the personal consumption loan data turned positive, and the short-term loans of the household sector increased by 654.38+084 billion yuan. It can be seen that after the interest rate was lowered, it played a certain role in promoting the growth of consumer loans. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, pointed out that with the easing of the epidemic, residents' consumption and business activities have recovered, and the regulatory authorities have demanded more financial support for individual industrial and commercial households. In May, residents' short-term loans, mainly consumer loans and business loans, increased by 369.6 billion yuan from the previous month, but decreased by 3.4 billion yuan year-on-year. This shows that the current household consumption is recovering, but the recovery is weak. The expansion or lag of loan demand Although the interest rate of consumer loans has been lowered, it has promoted the consumption power to a certain extent, but the account managers of the above-mentioned joint-stock banks admit that many banks have hit a wall when promoting consumer loans through active marketing methods such as telephone. "When communicating with customers, we also learned that some customers are troubled by salary cuts. Some customers also said that consumer demand was not as strong as before, and the original consumption plan was temporarily put on hold. " Recently, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 6.7% year-on-year in May, narrowing the decline by 4.4 percentage points. Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, pointed out that this number has dropped for the third consecutive month due to the epidemic. At present, the decline in consumption is still not small, and it is difficult to recover consumption. From the specific categories of consumer goods, grain, oil and food kept growing, increasing by 12.3%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points; Chinese and western medicines increased by 10.8%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points; Zhongtai Securities's analysis of the increase of petroleum products shows that from the high-frequency data since June, the improvement of consumption during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday is limited, but the recovery of production is still obviously faster than the demand, and the recovery of consumption, especially offline consumption, lags behind. If the epidemic does not expand, we can be moderately optimistic about the improvement of consumption, and with the support of a series of measures to promote consumption, the demand for the economy is expected to increase. "In general, the recent epidemic situation has generally improved and the restrictions on economic activities have weakened. With the implementation of a package of measures to stabilize the economy, the real economy has also shown some signs of improvement. However, we must also see that the uncertainty of the global economic development prospects is rising. In the next stage, we must implement a package of measures to stabilize the economy, continue to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, increase efforts to boost domestic demand, help difficult regions, industries and personnel, increase employment support, and let market players reverse expectations and enhance confidence. Keep the economy running in a reasonable range as soon as possible. " Wen said. Return to the source of customer demand in this case, as a financial institution, how can we better stimulate consumption power? Ji Xiang believes that banks, consumer finance companies and other institutions should be called upon to focus on some right and difficult things, that is, to return to the level of customer demand, and to stimulate the vitality of the consumer market through measures such as collectivization, hierarchical management and digital use. According to McKinsey's analysis report, in the future, the whole consumer finance market will change from a partial incremental market to an incremental market with the stock market superimposed, and it will be increasingly difficult to cope with the current fierce competition based on the thick-line stratification of risk performance. In this case, it will gradually become a compulsory course for practitioners to establish a systematic customer base and scenario play, and to systematically match business strategies and supporting capabilities. Specifically, for the C-end customer group, the leading financial institutions in the future should finely stratify customers according to the dimensions such as usage frequency, quota utilization rate, wallet share, consumption potential, and staging potential, and make multi-dimensional refinement and cutting according to customers' consumption behavior characteristics, consumption demand preferences, and demographic data (such as age, education, region, employment status, and occupation map). Form focused customer portraits (such as intellectual women who consume a lot of goods periodically, young hipsters who pursue the latest consumption trends, blue-collar workers who work in the first line of third-and fourth-tier cities, etc.). ).), and design differentiated marketing activities on this basis. For example, consumer credit product marketing can be provided for the periodic high unit price consumption of migrant workers in first-tier cities (such as changing mobile phones). Yang Li, deputy general manager and secretary of the board of directors of China Post Consumer Finance Co., Ltd. said that financial technology is the core competitiveness of consumer finance. The consumer finance industry should deepen the application of financial technology, build links with consumers with Internet thinking and technological innovation, and provide customers with convenient consumer credit services with innovation and technology. The relevant person in charge of Jiangsu Bank also believes that financial institutions should increase technological empowerment and accelerate industry breakthroughs. "First of all, future services, from customer capture and identification to strategy formulation, service push, effect evaluation and behavior improvement, will be automated and accurate, and service behavior will become data-driven. Secondly, the computing power of the machine will become the protagonist of the operation. Through the training of intelligent talents such as robot trainers and big data analysts, machines can independently drive various operational behaviors, and the future credit card business operation will be more quantitative and efficient. Finally, the data-driven intelligent risk control system will run through the entire life cycle of credit cards. The traditional risk control process before, during and after lending will become digital, intelligent, automatic and visual, and finally promote risk insight, risk prediction and risk decision-making to be more global and real-time. " Related Q&A: Related Q&A: Is the decline in people's purchasing power in third-tier cities due to mortgages? In fact, it is not only the purchasing power of third-tier cities that is affected by housing prices, but this phenomenon is common in all cities. In the context of high housing prices, the funds for buying a house actually bind the savings and income of two generations. The current housing price is so high that many families who buy houses not only come from their parents' savings, but also bind their children's future income. Some even add their ancestors' income and savings, that is to say, buying a house takes two or three generations' savings and one generation's future. The pressure of mortgage actually limits people's spending power. Many people are in a state of austerity because of the pressure of mortgage. The whole consumption has been shrinking and in a downturn. This can be clearly seen from the data of the whole consumer index. The impact of mortgage on the whole consumption is not short-term, but long-term. Most of the mortgage time is more than ten years, and many mortgage time is between 20 and 30 years. However, the overall income level has not improved much in recent years. In other words, the impact of mortgage on the whole consumer market is not short-term, but long-term, and this impact will even last for 20 years after 10. I know the financial market like the back of my hand, and I have been focusing on analyzing and transmitting the latest financial market and real estate market information for a long time. One more message, one more chance. I look forward to your praise and attention!
Second, does the interest rate of consumer loans fall after the central bank cuts interest rates?
Hello, the following is the latest loan interest rate (20 15,151effective on October 24th).
4.35 a year
One to five years 4.75
More than five years 4.90
Provident fund loan
Less than five years (including five years) 2.75
More than five years 3.25
Third, what is the relationship between falling interest rates and consumption delays?
It feels good to be supportive.