Some data recently released by the central bank show that residents' expectations have changed and residents' consumption and investment loans have weakened due to the epidemic and severe real estate regulation. They prefer to invest in financial products with relatively low risk of fixed income.

The April RMB credit balance sheet of financial institutions released by the central bank shows that at least from April last year to April this year, the growth rate of resident deposits is accelerating, the growth rate of demand deposits is slowing down, and the growth rate of time deposits is accelerating. At the same time, the growth rate of residential loans is slowing down.

We can see that in April 2020, residents' deposits were 869.726 billion yuan; In April of 20021year, residents' deposits were 97,706.7 billion yuan, an increase of 10734 1 billion yuan; In April 2023, residents' deposits109616.7 billion yuan, an increase of11910 billion yuan; In April this year, it increased by1175.9 billion yuan compared with the same period last year.

In terms of deposit structure, in April 2020, residents' time deposits were 57,333.3 billion yuan, and in April 2026, they were 54,342.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8,009 billion yuan. In April 2023, residents' time deposits were 75,506.4 billion yuan, an increase of 1 64 1 billion yuan over last year.

In April 2020, residents' demand deposits were 29,639.3 billion yuan, and in April 2026, they were 32,364.3 billion yuan, 5438+0, an increase of 2,725 billion yuan; In April 2023, residents' demand deposits were 3.41/kloc-0.20 billion yuan, an increase of only/kloc-0.8459 billion yuan, which was 87.9/kloc-0.00 billion yuan less than last year.

On the one hand, the growth rate of resident deposit balance is slowing down. In terms of deposit structure, residents change demand deposits into time deposits, indicating that the demand for "living money" is decreasing, but they show strong interest in relatively low-risk and high-yield financial products. Then this kind of investment behavior has squeezed the consumption and investment of residents, indicating that it has become relatively conservative compared with the previous high-risk preference.

It is worth mentioning that demand deposits are growing slowly and time deposits are growing rapidly, which is not good news for banks. One of the secrets of bank profitability is to make a pool of funds, and then make short-term loans and long-term loans to reduce the cost of debt and achieve profitability. After the growth rate of demand deposits is relatively slow, the debt cost of banks has increased significantly.

Let's look at the loan. Judging from the data, in recent years, the growth rate of loans in the residential sector has been slower than that of deposits. In April 2020, residents' loans were 56.53 trillion yuan, and in April 2026, it was 5438+0, which was 65.5071billion yuan, an increase of 8977 1 billion yuan. In April 2023, the loan balance was 710.4007 billion yuan, an increase of 5,893.6 billion yuan. This shows that residents' loans increased by 3,083.5 billion yuan in April this year, almost two-thirds less than the same period last year.

In terms of loan structure, residents' short-term loans were 13743 1 billion yuan in April 2020 and 160803 billion yuan in April 2026, an increase of 2,337.2 billion yuan. In April 2023, the balance of short-term loans was173155 billion yuan, only increasing by1235.2 billion yuan, with an increase of nearly half.

In terms of medium and long-term loans, it was 42,786.8 billion yuan in April 2020, 49,426.8 billion yuan in April 2002/KLOC-0, an increase of 664 billion yuan, and 54,085.2 billion yuan in April 2023, a decrease of1981600 million yuan.

From the above data, it can be concluded that at least in the past year, residents have spontaneously adjusted their assets and liabilities institutions. In terms of liabilities, the growth rate of loans slowed down sharply, while in terms of assets, the growth rate of deposits increased rapidly. The pursuit of stable income rather than excess income has become their potential pursuit, and the risk exposure has further converged.

The possible reason is that the downward pressure on the economic cycle is great, especially when the epidemic situation continues to break out in many places. In the past year, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and other first-tier cities have all experienced risk control measures in life and production brought about by the epidemic. The interruption of some small and medium-sized enterprises and the difficulties of some enterprises have impacted the employment and income of many residents to a certain extent, thus undermining their expectations of future income. Preventive asset allocation is dominant, o trend.

According to the Statistical Report on Loan Investment of Financial Institutions in the First Quarter of 2023 released by the Central Bank, at the end of the first quarter of 2023, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.22 trillion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, which was 1.9 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of last year. In the first quarter, it increased by 779 billion yuan, accounting for 9.3% of all loans in the same period, 9.8 percentage points lower than last year.

The report also revealed that at the end of the first quarter of 2023, the balance of domestic and foreign currency household loans was 72.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10. 1%, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points lower than the end of the previous year; In the first quarter, it increased by 1.26 trillion yuan, and decreased by 1.3 trillion yuan year-on-year.

At the end of the first quarter of 2023, the balance of households' operating loans was 17. 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, which was 3. 1 percentage point lower than the end of the previous year; In the first quarter, it increased by 888.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4/kloc-0.40 billion yuan. The balance of residents' other consumer loans (excluding personal housing loans) was 16.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7. 1%, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. In the first quarter, it decreased by 654.38+050.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 358.5 billion yuan. The reduction of loan consumption is rare in recent years.

According to a recent report released by Guotai Junan Securities Company, the leverage ratio of the residential sector was 62.0% in April this year, down 0.3 percentage points from March. Since the fourth quarter of 20021,housing enterprises have been in the process of deleveraging.

The report pointed out that the main force of this deleveraging is the residential sector. Since the second half of 20021,the leverage ratio of the longest-lasting residential sector in history has declined.

Although the trend of residents' spontaneous deleveraging is mainly caused by the epidemic and the active adjustment of real estate, under the current economic background, we must pay attention to this trend and take effective measures to curb it, because residents' deleveraging means that residents' investment and consumption tend to decline, which is extremely unfavorable to the overall economic growth, especially to the service industry and manufacturing industry.

At present, the government has realized this problem. With the further improvement of the national epidemic situation, various fiscal and monetary policies, especially preferential measures for small and medium-sized enterprises, will be further introduced, which will encourage residents to restore confidence, change their expectations and slow down the deleveraging process.

Related Questions and Answers: Related Questions and Answers: The balance of personal housing loans in the first quarter was 26.87 trillion yuan, the lowest growth rate in the past three years. what do you think? In the first quarter of 20 19, all real estate-related data slowed down, which was the result of past regulation. Let's look at several sets of data first:

1, the growth of individual housing loan balance slowed down.

In the first quarter of 20 19, the balance of individual housing loans was 268,700 yuan, up by 17.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points compared with the end of last year.

In the first quarter of 20 18, the balance of individual housing loans was 22.86 trillion, up 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year.

20 17 The balance of personal housing loans in the first quarter was 20. 1 trillion, up 36.2% year-on-year.

20 16 The balance of individual housing loans in the first quarter was15.180,000, up by 25.5% year-on-year. Personal housing loans increased by 1 trillion in the first quarter, a record high!

As can be seen from the above data, the growth rate of individual housing loan balance in the first quarter of 20 19 was the slowest, and it continued the trend of slowing down. The period of 20 17 was the fastest growing period, and it began to slow down in 20 18, and this trend continued in 20 19.

Why is this?

In fact, the core reason lies in the cycle of real estate, which is particularly obvious because of regulation. The starting point of this cycle is June 20 15. At that time, because the house inventory hit a record high, many policies were introduced, such as lowering interest rates, reducing the down payment ratio, relaxing the qualification for buying houses and so on. The demand for commercial housing was activated at once, starting from June 20 15. The sales area of commercial housing began to increase positively, and this trend continued until 20 18 and 12, which means that this bull market of real estate lasted for 43 months, the longest in history. This trend began to change in 20 19, and the sales area of commercial housing was negative in the first two months of 20 19, with a negative growth of 3.6%.

In the period from 20 15 to 20 19, it can be divided into more details. After the relaxation of regulation, first-tier cities first opened the channel of rising house prices, which was soon completed. 20 17 began to enter the stage of strict control, and house prices in first-tier cities began to sideways; In 20 16, the rising trend of house prices spread to second-and third-tier cities, which lasted for about two years. In 20 18, the control measures of purchase restriction were also ushered in. From 20 17, this trend spread to other cities and continued until the end of 20 18.

So we can see that 20 17 is the fastest growing year, and this data can also be seen from the transaction area of commercial housing.

2. Changes in the transaction area of commercial housing

The chart below is based on the data of the National Bureau of Statistics. 13 changes in the growth rate of the transaction area of commercial housing in the past can clearly see the beginning and end of the housing market cycle in the past. The latest round began in June of 20 15, and the real estate transaction area slowed down significantly in 20 18, directly becoming 20 19.

3. Changes in the growth rate of commercial housing turnover

This chart shows the change of the growth rate of commercial housing turnover in the past 13 years. The trend of the chart is highly consistent with the trend of the sales area of commercial housing. This chart thoroughly reveals the past trend of the real estate market. Interestingly, the growth rate of sales is much faster than the growth rate of transaction area, and the meaning contained therein should be very clear.

What inspiration will you get from these two pictures? What will be the future trend of the property market?