Recently, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Issues Related to Adjusting Differentiated Housing Credit Policies, which adjusted the lower limit of mortgage interest rate and released a new signal to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The "Notice" mainly includes two aspects: First, residents purchase ordinary self-occupied housing, and the lower limit of the interest rate of the first set of commercial housing loans is adjusted to LPR minus 20 basis points in the same period, and the second set is still implemented according to the current regulations; Second, commercial banks can independently determine the lower limit of the first and second sets of commercial personal housing loan interest rates within their jurisdiction according to the changes in the local real estate market situation and the regulatory requirements of the city government.
First of all, it should be pointed out that the differentiated housing credit policy was implemented on 20 1 1, with the aim of limiting the investment and speculative demand for housing by adopting differentiated down payment ratio and interest rate. Due to the obvious regional characteristics of China's real estate market, the interest rate of individual housing loans is determined according to the principle of "making policy according to the city", and a three-level determination mechanism of "national local banks" is adopted, that is, the central bank determines the lower limit of interest rates nationwide, the provincial branches of the central bank determine the lower limit of their own regions, and the local banks determine the specific price of each loan on the basis of the lower limit of regional interest rate policy.
From August, 2065438 to August, 2009, after the implementation of LPR quotation reform, the central bank set the first home loan interest rate at the national level as LPR, and the second home loan interest rate as LPR plus 60 basis points. According to the "Notice", the lower limit of the interest rate of the first suite nationwide has dropped to LPR-20 basis points. At present, the five-year LPR is 4.6%, which has become 4.4% after downward adjustment, which is close to the level of 4. 165% during the 8.5% discount period of the 20 16-year mortgage interest rate.
At the end of April, the Politburo meeting made it clear that it was necessary to "strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year" and "plan incremental policy tools and increase camera control". To implement the real estate policy, it is necessary to "support local governments to improve real estate policies according to local conditions and support rigid and improved housing demand". Subsequently, both the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission indicated that they would optimize the real estate credit policy in time, keep the real estate financing stable and orderly, and support the rigid and improved housing demand.
On the other hand, the current real estate market is really not optimistic. Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that from June to April, the sales area of commercial housing was -20.9%, and the sales volume of commercial housing was -29.5%, so the market transaction was extremely light. In April, residential housing loans decreased by 60.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 402.2 billion yuan. Instead of increasing leverage, the housing sector is deleveraging. The national housing boom index has dropped to 95.9%, reaching the lowest level since the beginning of 20 16.
Since the beginning of this year, many places have made marginal adjustments to real estate financial policies by reducing the down payment ratio, lowering the loan interest rate and relaxing the restrictions on purchases and loans, but at present, it has not achieved the expected results. In this case, it is necessary to introduce higher-level and more powerful measures to stabilize the market. This is not only the urgent task of steady growth, but also the meaning of preventing risks.
This downward adjustment marks the overall downward movement of the lower limit of mortgage interest rate at the national level, which undoubtedly releases a stronger policy signal. Under the positioning of staying in the house and not speculating, the downward adjustment only involves the first suite, excluding the second suite. However, due to the relaxation of the first suite certification standards in some places, it is expected that the spillover effect of the policy will expand. According to the monetary policy implementation report in the first quarter, the average interest rate of new personal housing loans in March was 5.49%, which is still not small compared with the lower limit of 4.4%.
In addition, it should be pointed out that mortgage is a high-quality asset for banks, and the interest rate of individual housing loans has been lower than the average interest rate of general loans until 2020. After 2020, the policy shifted to focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, manufacturing and other fields, and the general loan interest rate began to be lower than the personal housing loan interest rate. The former was only 4.98% in the first quarter, 5 1 basis point lower than the latter. Judging from the cost-benefit ratio, banks are definitely willing to lower the mortgage interest rate. The downward adjustment of mortgage interest rate will help reduce the cost of housing purchase, activate the credit demand of residents, and guide residents to increase leverage reasonably, thus forming a substantial positive for the real estate market.
From the historical experience, real estate sales usually lag behind the adjustment of mortgage interest rate for one or two quarters. If the epidemic situation is basically controlled at the end of May, residents are expected to gradually improve, and the subsequent decline in real estate sales is expected to gradually narrow. Under the clear policy signal, all parties expect to stabilize, which is not only conducive to the healthy development of housing consumption, but also conducive to enhancing the confidence of housing enterprises, and ultimately conducive to promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.