Judging from the long-term trend, it is the general trend that the interest rate of real estate mortgage loans in China Mainland will fall. At present, China's mortgage interest rate is far ahead in the world, and it may not be obvious in the short term in 2022. However, from the perspective of healthy economic development, it is a trend that the mortgage interest rate is greatly lowered.

According to relevant data, in September of 20021year, the interest rate of the first home loan in China was as high as 5.46%, and the interest rate of the second home loan was even as high as 5.83%, ranking first among the major economies in the world. The current mortgage interest rate in the United States is only 3.69%, while it is only about 2% in Britain, France and Germany in the euro zone, about 2% in Japan and South Korea in East Asia, and about 2% in China, Hongkong and Taiwan Province Province in China.

Especially since the beginning of 20021,mortgage interest rates in many cities across the country have continued to rise, and the highest mortgage interest rate even rose to 7.5% for the second suite. The rise in mortgage interest rates is almost the same as that of cities across the country, and no one is spared. Property buyers can only hope to "sigh"!

However, from the long-term and phased perspective in the future, it is inevitable to cut interest rates on mortgage loans. Because in the next five years, it is difficult for China's GDP growth rate to remain above 6%, but it may drop to 4%-5%, and the economic base of high interest rate no longer exists. Therefore, in the next five years, the mortgage interest rate will also drop from the current 5%-6% to 4%-5%, and the operating loan interest rate may even remain below 4% for a long time.

The deposit interest rate is likely to "fall" in the next five years. After the economic growth slows down, the deposit interest rate will definitely fall. Because the return on investment of the whole society has "declined", everyone is unwilling to invest in business, but willing to save money to avoid risks, which will inevitably lead to a decline in deposit interest rates.

When the urbanization process slows down, the demand for housing will decline and the purchasing power will also decline. The real estate policy will shift from "high pressure" to "stability", and the relaxation trend will be very obvious.

Under the evolution of the above factors, it is basically impossible for China to maintain "high mortgage interest rate" for a long time, and "interest rate reduction" is the only way out.