George soros, an American Jew, is known as a "financial genius". 1969 "Double Eagle Fund" has made incredible achievements since its establishment, with an average annual comprehensive growth rate of 35%, which is beyond the reach of Wall Street colleagues. He seems to have a super ability to control the world financial market. His words can suddenly change the trading situation of a commodity or currency, and the market price will rise or fall with his words. A TV reporter once described this vividly; Soros invested in gold, because he invested in gold, so everyone thought he should invest in gold, so the price of gold rose; Soros wrote an article questioning the value of the German mark, so the exchange rate of the mark fell; Soros invested in real estate in London, where the decline in house prices was reversed overnight. Many people are eager to know the secret of Soros's success, but because Soros is tight-lipped about his investment, it adds a layer of mystery to his successful experience.
In the early 1990s, western developed countries were in the process of economic recession, but the economies of Southeast Asian countries showed miraculous growth, their economic strength continued to increase and their economic prospects were bright. Before the outbreak of the economic crisis, the economic development model of Southeast Asia was once followed by developing countries. Southeast Asian countries are very optimistic about their national economies. In order to speed up the pace of economic growth, they relaxed financial control and implemented financial liberalization in order to become a new world financial center. However, under the aura of economic prosperity, Southeast Asian countries have neglected some very important things and mainly rely on the increase of foreign investment. On this basis, financial deregulation is tantamount to building high-rise buildings on the beach, exposing their respective currencies to international hot money without any protection, which is extremely vulnerable to the impact of international hot money from all directions. In addition, due to the rapid economic growth, the phenomenon of excessive real estate speculation and overestimation of enterprise scale and market demand has generally appeared in Southeast Asian countries, and the danger of economic crisis has gradually increased.
Such a big financial loophole in Southeast Asia can't escape Soros's eyes. He has been waiting for a favorable opportunity to fight another English-style battle.
With the passage of time, the signs of overheating in Southeast Asian countries have become more prominent. Central banks all over the world have adopted the method of constantly raising bank interest rates to reduce inflation, but this method also provides many opportunities for speculation. Even the banking industry itself is borrowing dollars, yen, marks and other foreign currencies to speculate in foreign currencies and join the ranks of speculators. In this way, the serious consequence is the sharp increase of short-term foreign debts of banks in various countries. Once foreign hot money flows away quickly, financial markets in various countries will experience painful and huge shocks. Although the central banks of Southeast Asian countries have realized the seriousness of this problem, they seem to be powerless in the face of open and liberalized markets. Among them, the problem in Thailand is the most serious. Because Thailand was the country with the highest degree of financial market liberalization in Southeast Asian countries at that time, the Thai baht was linked to the US dollar, and capital could freely enter and leave. Thailand's economy has the most "bubbles". Thailand's banking industry has transferred a large number of foreign currency loans to the real estate industry, resulting in a serious imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a large number of bad debts and bad debts in the banking industry, and the quality of assets has seriously deteriorated. By the first half of197, the bad debts of Thai banks were estimated to be as high as 800 billion to 900 billion baht (about 3 10 to135 billion US dollars). In addition, the unreasonable loan structure has also made the Thai banking industry worse. 95% of overseas loans of Thai banks belong to short-term loans of less than one year.
It is precisely because Soros saw this weakest link in the Southeast Asian capital market that he decided to attack the Thai baht on a large scale first, and then swept the capital markets of the entire Southeast Asian countries.
In March 2006, when the Central Bank of Thailand announced that nine domestic finance companies and 1 home loan companies had problems of low asset quality and insufficient liquidity, Soros thought that the golden opportunity had come, and Soros and other arbitrage fund managers began to sell Thai baht in large quantities, and Thailand's foreign exchange market immediately became choppy and turbulent. The Qin baht fell all the way, and the lowest in May fell to 1 US dollar against 26.70 baht. At the critical moment, the Bank of Thailand took various emergency measures, such as using 654.38+0.2 billion US dollars of foreign exchange to buy Thai baht, raising the overnight lending rate and restricting the lending behavior of domestic banks. These powerful measures made Soros's transaction cost soar and lost $300 million at once. However, Soros is confident in his original theory and insists that his point of view is correct. The loss of $300 million doesn't scare Soros at all. He thinks that Thailand can't resist his impact even if it tries its best, and he is determined to win.
In late June 2006, Soros raised more funds and launched another fierce attack on the Thai baht. The major exchanges were in chaos, the Thai baht plummeted and traders sold the Thai baht crazily. The Thai government used $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves and $654.38+0.5 billion in international loans to try to turn the tide. However, compared with the astronomical international hot money, this mere $45 billion is like a drop in the bucket, which is of no help.
On February 2, the Thai government was forced to change the currency linked exchange rate system that had been maintained for 13 years and implement a floating exchange rate system because it could no longer compete with Soros. The Thai baht fell even more. On July 24th, the Thai baht has fallen to the lowest level of 1 US dollar against 32.63 baht. The Thai government was swept away by international speculators, and many Thais were stripped of their pockets. Soros's victory in the first battle was not satisfied with this. He decided to sweep across Southeast Asia and make a profit again. Hurricane Soros quickly swept through Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Malaysia and other countries. The Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso, Myanmar dollar and Malaysian ringgit depreciated sharply, leading to terrible situations such as factory closures, bank closures and rising prices. This hurricane Soros, which swept through Southeast Asia, swept away billions of dollars of wealth in one fell swoop and reduced the economic growth of these countries to ashes for decades.
After sweeping Southeast Asia, Soros's invisible hand began to quietly reach out to the Oriental Pearl Hong Kong, which has just returned to the motherland.
In mid-July, 2008, the Hong Kong dollar suffered a lot of speculative selling, and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar was hit, all the way down to the psychological barrier of 1 US dollar against HK$ 7.7500. Hong Kong's financial market is in chaos, and the front doors of major banks are crowded with people running, so the Hong Kong dollar is in a hurry for the first time in many years. Hong Kong monetary authorities immediately entered the market, forcibly intervened in the market and bought a large amount of Hong Kong dollars, keeping the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollars against the US dollar above the psychological barrier of 7.7500 Hong Kong dollars.
In the first week, the expected effect was indeed received. But soon, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar fell below the 7.7500 mark. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority once again used its foreign exchange reserves to fully intervene in the market, raising the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar to over HK$ 7.7500 again, showing its strong financial strength. Soros's first exploratory attack failed under the strong defense of Hong Kong's financial management authorities.
Judging from past experience, Soros is by no means the kind of person who is willing to give up easily. He began to buy a lot of Hong Kong dollars, ready to reproduce the glory of the battles in England and Southeast Asia. But this time, Soros's decision is not wise, because he may forget to consider Chinese mainland behind the harbor. The foreign exchange reserves of Hongkong and Chinese mainland are as high as more than 200 billion US dollars, which is not comparable to those of Britain, Thailand and other countries. The odds of winning this attack on the Hong Kong dollar are slim.
For Hong Kong, maintaining a fixed exchange rate system is a guarantee to maintain people's confidence. Once the fixed exchange rate system falls under the impact of international hot money led by Soros and others, people will lose confidence in Hong Kong, thus undermining its prosperity. Therefore, defending Hong Kong's monetary stability is doomed to be a life-and-death battle. The Hong Kong government will fight back against any challenge to the Hong Kong dollar at all costs.
On July 2 1 2008, Soros began to launch a new round of attack. On the same day, the three-month forward premium of the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar rose by 250 points, and the three-month interbank offered rate of the Hong Kong dollar rose from 5.575% to 7.06%. The next day, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority immediately planned a counterattack. The Hong Kong government raised the interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar by issuing a large number of government bonds, which in turn pushed the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar up sharply against the US dollar. At the same time, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority gave verbal warnings to two banks suspected of speculating in Hong Kong dollars, which made some Hong Kong dollar speculators tremble and finally chose to quit the Hong Kong dollar speculation team, which will undoubtedly weaken Soros' speculative power. When speculative selling of the Hong Kong dollar began, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority sharply raised short-term interest rates, which led to a surge in overnight lending rates. A series of counter-attacks, so that Soros's Hong Kong campaign failed to get any cheap, it is said that this move made Soros suffer heavy losses.
The China government has repeatedly stressed that it will fully support the Hong Kong government in maintaining the stability of the Hong Kong dollar, and the Bank of China will cooperate with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority when necessary. Join hands to crack down on Soros's speculation. This is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for Hong Kong, but it is definitely bad news for Soros. The "bad news" Soros heard was far more than that. 1On July 25th, 1997, the central bank meeting of1countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region, including China, Australia, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Japan and ASEAN countries, issued a statement: the economy in the Asia-Pacific region is developing well, so it is necessary to strengthen mutual cooperation and combat currency speculation. This made Soros feel that the hope of speculating in Hong Kong dollars to make a lot of money was lost and he had to leave angrily.
The failure to attack the Hong Kong dollar also taught Soros a lesson. Don't overestimate your power to control the market, otherwise the market will sometimes give you a fright and make you suffer.
Soros is a well-deserved number one investor in the world. Since he entered the field of international finance, his impressive achievements are almost unparalleled. Maybe some investors will make amazing achievements in a year or two, but it is very rare that Soros has been outstanding for decades. Although he has experienced painful failures, he can always overcome them and get up from where he fell, and he will become stronger. He is like an "evergreen tree" in the financial market, attracting many gold diggers who are eager to succeed.
Some people also call Soros a "financial killer" and a "devil". The speculative fund he led made waves in the financial market, swept away the wealth of many countries, emptied the pockets of thousands of people and made them poor overnight, so he became the target of public criticism. He once defended himself by saying that he speculates to make money just to make money. In the transaction, it is normal that some people gain and some people lose. He didn't hurt anyone. He won't feel guilty about anyone who suffered losses in the transaction, because he may also suffer losses, which may clearly show his Jewish descent.
No matter what the world says, Soros's financial ability is recognized. His assets are at least higher than the GDP of 42 member countries of the United Nations, and his wealth is comparable to that of 42 countries. This is a full affirmation of his economic ability.