After P2P is finally cleared, there are two key data that Renrendai needs to close. One is that Renrendai has nearly 190,000 lenders, and the other is that the loan balance is 25 billion yuan. However, when lenders When I wanted to get my principal back, I found it very difficult. Yang Yifu, one of the founders, said that now it is true that so much money has been paid to the lender. For Renrendai’s nearly 190,000 lenders, this is truly a dark moment.

Renrendai suddenly issued a notice without any warning.

On November 2, Renrendai suddenly launched an “emergency transfer channel” without any notice: 30% off the principal and no interest.

When the lender saw this situation, he felt the seriousness of the problem, so some people wanted to use the emergency channel to get back the principal at a 30% discount. It would be better to "get off the car" and feel at ease early than to be shaken in the car. Akira feels at ease, "getting off the bus" means being able to "stop the loss" in time. At least the loss is still controllable, even if there is a 30% loss.

However, the lender obviously underestimated the difficulty of getting back the principal. The platform has risks, so you need to be cautious when getting on the platform. This sentence is used on the P2P platform in the same way as when entering the stock market. It corresponds to the same sentence: the higher the return, the greater the risk. The lender found that after applying for a 30% discount on the principal, there was no follow-up at all, and it could not be approved multiple times. With no choice, he gritted his teeth and stamped his feet, and simply applied for a transfer at a 35% discount. I wonder if the platform wanted to "cut a handful of leeks" at the end, but the 35% discount actually allowed it. "get off".

"Friendly" reminders always have a "strange" smell.

If you are interested in asking the official customer service of Renrendai, it will definitely make you furious. The usual answer is that there are too many people applying for 30% off on the platform and the system is congested. You can take the trouble to ask more Submit your application several times. The customer service also reminds the lender to be “friendly” and not recommend discounts that are too low.

This is strange. The transfer application with a 30% discount will not be approved, but the transfer application with a 35% discount will be approved?

Think about it, this is normal. At this last moment, taking advantage of the lender's eagerness to recover the principal, you can harvest as much as you can. For 1 million, you can pay 50,000 less on top of the 300,000 less. No one can afford such a business, not to mention that the platform does this. Under the current policy, there is indeed no problem. Just like investors who suffer losses from stock trading, they can't seek compensation from listed companies.

Now many people will have a question, why I lent 100% of the principal, but now I can only get back 65%. Where did the other 35% go? I would like to share two superficial opinions:

First, financial profits are suspected of being "artificially manufactured", covering up 35% of the principal that has disappeared.

Of course, there is no substantial evidence at present, because this involves the final platform investigation results. However, judging from the financial statement data of many platforms in the past, I always feel that the problem is not that serious, because the profits in the reports are still very gratifying. If there is a profit, it proves that the company is constantly making money, and making money means that the platform "Not short of money".

But now things are backfired. When the country began to clean up P2P platforms in 2019, this "profit" has not been able to withstand such a test. Platforms that are "not short of money" have been liquidated and exited again, exposing Understand the true face of Mount Lu.

The trick of "tearing down the east wall to repair the west wall" has been completely exposed in the face of supervision. If there is no problem, it is lucky, but if there is a problem, it is inevitable.

The second point is that the actual bad debts are too high, which is the main reason why 35% of the principal has "disappeared".

There are times when bank loans fail, but the money is still lent under very strict review. According to relevant bank data, by the end of June this year, the non-performing loan rate of my country's commercial banks was 2.1%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the beginning of the year.

For example, Hengfeng Bank, a national joint-stock bank, actually found that the balance of non-performing loans at the end of 2018 was 163.561 billion yuan, the non-performing rate was 28.44%, and the loan loss provision was - 89.475 billion yuan. However, the non-performing loan ratio disclosed by this bank in its 2016 financial report was only 1.78%.

Relevant professionals are aware of the seriousness of the problem and warned that we must be prepared for a possible sharp rebound in non-performing loans.

Compared with the threshold for bank borrowing, borrowing from P2P platforms is much easier. Basically, it relies on credit borrowing with zero mortgage. Such borrowers are "kicked out" by banks. They You can't borrow money from the bank, so the risk of such a loan can be imagined.

According to professional analysis, 2% of bad debts of general banks are within the normal range, and the normal bad debt rate of P2P is 3%-5%. But what is the real bad debt of P2P that relies on credit to survive? ?

In 2018, the platform was still normal, with a repayment of 70%. However, when many borrowers realized that the industry was in chaos, they were unwilling to repay the money. Now the repayment is only about 30%. About %.

When the situation is good, bad debts are as high as 30%. When the situation is bad, the bad debts are as high as 70%. In 2018, although the bad debts are not low, they can be repaired by tearing down the east wall and making up for the west wall. High interest rates are used to withdraw funds, but as the situation changes dramatically, bad debts also increase. By the time all platforms were cleared in early December this year, bad debts had reached 800 billion yuan. Who will pay for such high bad debts? Lenders will certainly bear a considerable part of this.

Bad debt is a very sensitive financial indicator. It is indeed difficult to read any new patterns or smell any different smell from the public data. The reason why the platform is currently experiencing thunder may be that it covers up the real bad debts.

Write at the end:

Now the probability that the lender wants to get back all the principal is extremely small, or even impossible. All the lender has to do is to "stop the loan in time" "Loss" to minimize your losses.

As a platform, the most important thing is the collection of bad debts. Two methods can be used to collect the money, one is by people and the other is by law. However, judicial disposal is the last resort for the platform to recall bad products, and it faces many problems such as long duration and difficulty in execution. A civil dispute generally takes 6 months from filing to settlement, with a minimum of 3 months.

Borrowing debt and repaying money is a matter of course, but now the lender is living like a "grandson". For many investors, after this investment experience, how will their investment strategies change?