The trend of the real estate industry in the next year is still worrying. 2016 has arrived, and the housing prices in first- and second-tier cities are still high. So what will be the trend of housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities, especially in fourth-tier cities? ?Speaking of housing prices in 2016, when we look forward to the future, we inevitably have to look back at the past. Since the new policies were just released in 2015, the second-hand house transaction business tax and second-home credit policies have appeared. After the changes, the real estate market has slowed down to a certain extent due to such continuous releases.
2016 has just arrived, and the transaction volume of real estate is already very hot, but even so, the inventory of real estate is still very large, but in fourth-tier cities, consumer demand still cannot satisfy the fourth-tier cities. The city's real estate market. At present, property prices in fourth-tier cities are still in a period of gloom, but what will be the trend of housing prices in fourth-tier cities in the next year?
One of the housing price trends in fourth-tier cities in 2016:
At present, the period of business tax payment for second-hand housing transactions in my country has been changed, from the original five years to the current two years. Although the lending policy has been implemented, for home buyers, the fourth-tier cities Taxes and fees still feel heavy. Currently, in order to reduce inventory and reduce consumers’ basic home purchase costs, there is still hope that real estate personal taxes and business taxes will be reduced in the next year.
House price trends in fourth-tier cities in 2016 Part 2:
Judging from the performance in the past few years, the inflow of population in fourth-tier cities has significantly reduced, and the land finance Due to factors such as factors, there are a lot of vacant houses in the fourth-tier cities, which means they are facing the pressure of high inventory pressure. Therefore, for the fourth-tier cities, further price reduction is the only way for developers in 2016. And from the perspective of urban construction, solving the real estate inventory pressure in fourth-tier cities also solves a very important problem. However, if we want to solve the inventory pressure, we still need to start with the purchase of houses according to the rural population process. In order to enable everyone to live in Buying a house in the city means that in mid-2016, housing prices in fourth-tier cities will continue to be sluggish.
House price trend prediction in 2017: House prices will not fall! Third- and fourth-tier cities may improve
1. House prices will not fall in 2017, and new home sales are expected to exceed market expectations again. Despite the intervention of administrative measures, the average sales price of new homes in the fourth quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017 will remain the same. However, according to CICC Securities Research and Analysis, under the influence of three major driving factors, housing prices will remain stable in the first half of 2017 and will return to an upward trend in the second half of the year. Moreover, new home sales will focus on growth in the second half of the year and are expected to exceed market expectations again. The three main factors driving the rise in housing prices are: 1. Developers have abundant funds. It is estimated that 5.5 trillion yuan of external funds will flow into the real estate market in 2016. Among the 5.5 trillion yuan of external funds, funds from bank wealth management products have increased significantly this year, and the annual contribution is expected to be 4.4 trillion yuan ( Accounting for more than 70%), it has become an important source of external funds for developers, providing sufficient funds for developers to acquire land and other activities.
In addition, CICC Securities Research estimates that the total land transfer fee in 2016 will be approximately 4 trillion yuan, and developers will have more than enough funds on hand. 2. Land prices stimulate developers’ willingness to raise prices. At the end of 2016, a batch of high-priced land was sold in cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen. In order to protect profit margins, the high land costs and significant premiums in 2016 will stimulate developers' willingness to raise prices. ?3. The supply gap between first-tier cities and core second-tier cities is difficult to fundamentally resolve in the short term. Although the shortage of supply in first- and second-tier cities has been improved to a certain extent, it is difficult to completely solve, so the pressure for housing prices to continue to rise still exists. 2. The urban supply-demand relationship has been improved, but will not be fundamentally reversed. In conjunction with the central government's "city-specific policies" framework, CICC researched and analyzed the supply and demand situation of 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2016 to 2020. According to report analysis, the supply and demand relationship at the city level will improve to a certain extent in the short term in 2017, but it will not be completely reversed. In other words, urban supply gaps will continue to exist in hotspot cities where policies have been tightened at the end of 2016, while the oversupply problem in third- and fourth-tier cities is difficult to fundamentally solve, especially in the northwest and northeastern regions.
Therefore, as the effect of regulatory policies weakens, first- and second-tier cities are expected to overtake third- and fourth-tier cities in the second half of 2017.
3. The narrowing of mortgage margins will not have a substantial impact on the real estate market. According to CICC research forecasts, the total number of new housing loans in 2017 will reach 5.5 trillion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 15%), and supported by this, the national new home sales will reach 9.4 trillion yuan (a year-on-year decrease). Growth: 4%), which is better than current market expectations. Taking the predicted market conditions of 5.5 trillion new housing loans and 9.4 trillion new home sales as the basic scenario assumption: the national new loans (net amount) in 2017 were 13.8 trillion, which is the same as in 2016 of 12.1 trillion (estimated) increased steadily compared with 2015's 11.7 trillion (actual). In addition, CICC also simulated optimistic and pessimistic scenarios: Optimistic scenario: The total number of new housing loans is RMB 7.3 trillion, and the sales of new homes are RMB 12.6 trillion. New housing loans (net) accounted for 40% of the country's new loans (net), and the ratio was the same as in 2016. Pessimistic scenario: The total number of new housing loans is RMB 4.1 trillion, and the sales of new homes are RMB 7.1 trillion. New housing loans (net) accounted for 18% of the country's new loans (net), and the ratio was the same as in 2010 (the period of policy tightening). Therefore, the narrowing of mortgage margins will not have a substantial impact on the real estate market.
4. There will be no significant policy adjustments in the short term. According to CICC research data, the possibility of further escalation of policy control measures in the short term is very low. The purpose of policy regulation in 2016 is to "control the first line and stabilize the second line." Further policies will only be introduced if the existing measures are less effective than expected, which is unlikely at present.
Generally speaking, the main problem faced by fourth-tier cities is the problem of high inventory pressure. This problem has also led to the reduction of land supply in fourth-tier cities. Therefore, under such circumstances, some more Strong companies will be more optimistic about the development of first- and second-tier cities. As a result, the residential land transaction volume in fourth-tier cities will continue to run at a low level. Therefore, from a macro perspective, in mid-2016, housing prices in fourth-tier cities will remain high. In a low state.
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