In "Theory of Probability" edited by He Shuyuan, there is a question about celadon vases: We assume that the probability of a celadon vase being lost in a year is 3%. If 10,000 were produced during the Zhengde period of the Ming Dynasty, Vase, how many are left now?

Step 1: Calculate the probability that a blue and white vase will remain intact for 500 years:

Step 2: Calculate the probability that 10,000 vases will remain intact:

In other words, the probability of seeing the vase now is 0.243%. Scarcity is one of the important reasons for value. In other words, if you have a "Blue and White Ruyi Drooping Shoulder and Broken Branch Pattern Plum Vase" from the Mingle Period, it is now worth HK$168.66 million. Most of what remains after the wash of time is priceless.

The same is true in life. Some choices that were insignificant or even considered hot-headed at the time have become the most important choices in your life after decades.

If we can use time as the basis for our choices, we will definitely know which choice has the highest value.

I once watched a video that teaches you how to judge the appreciation potential of a house. In this video, the author said that if you don’t know the appreciation potential of the house you are looking at when buying a house, you can go to the bank to find out.

You can pretend that you are the owner of the house in this location and communicate with the person in charge of mortgage loans at the bank to see how much you can borrow as a mortgage for your house if you want to get a loan. As bank clerks, they must know a way to judge the value of a house and know which location will be more valuable in the future. When you know the loan amount, you will know whether you should buy a house in this place.

I don’t invest in houses, so I’m not sure if this method is actually effective. But we can also see from this example that if we add the dimension of time to a thing, many difficult problems will become simpler.

It's like looking at the two-dimensional world from a three-dimensional perspective. There is a scene in "Zodiac" where Jackie Chan breaks into a maze and can't get out of the maze no matter how he walks or turns.

But when he used a paraglider to look at the maze from a high altitude, he quickly discovered the exit. A maze is a two-dimensional world. When you are in a two-dimensional world, you will definitely not be able to find the exit. And when you look at it from the air, you are looking at the maze from a three-dimensional perspective, and you can naturally find the path easily.

In history, there are also many things that seemed at the time to be a waste of lives and money, and wrong choices of those in power, but in fact they were things that benefited the present generation and benefited the future. This is the case with the famous Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal. For those who built these buildings, they did not enjoy the benefits of these buildings. On the contrary, during the construction process, due to the huge manpower, financial and material resources required, it brought harm to the contemporary people. A huge disaster.

It starts from Beijing in the north and ends in Hangzhou in the south, with a total length of 1,794 kilometers. According to historians, Emperor Yang of the Sui Dynasty recruited 3.6 million migrant workers in one day in order to significantly expand the Grand Canal. Due to the social productivity at that time, people could only dig it day and night, so that the final death toll reached 250,000, which was undoubtedly a catastrophe for the working people at that time.

However, since the construction of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal, it has promoted economic exchanges between the north and the south. Based on the canal, a large and complex water transportation system has been established to continuously transport materials from various places to various cities along the way. To this day all play an important role. In 2002, the Grand Canal was also included in the "South-to-North Water Diversion" project.

From the perspective of time, although the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal brought huge disasters to the people at that time and even became the fuse that led to the demise of the Sui Dynasty, it was indeed beneficial to future generations. Big project.

The same is true for life choices. We cannot only care about the gains and losses of the present, but we must focus on the future and let time be the basis for our choices. We must know what kind of person we want to be and our future. Make a decision based on the situation, and don't be greedy for quickness.

Some choices may seem to face greater challenges than others at the time, but the risks are only at the time, and the rewards are in the future.

Among the founding generals, many generals had studied at the Whampoa Military Academy.

One of them was a first-year student of the Huangpu Military Academy. Because of his excellent performance in all aspects of the school, he was known as one of the Three Heroes of Huangpu. He was highly recommended by Chiang Kai-shek. He was the founding general of the People's Republic of China, General Chen Geng.

Not only was he favored by Chiang Kai-shek because of his outstanding performance, but he also saved Chiang Kai-shek's life.

In a battle, Chiang Kai-shek was besieged. In order to distract the enemy's attention, he had to break out. It happened that General Chen Geng was assigned to Chiang Kai-shek's group. You must know that in a breakout, the bigger the official's hat, the more enemy troops are chasing, and the more difficult it is to break through.

During the breakout process, their group was pursued and attacked by the enemy. It was General Chen Geng who risked his life and carried Chiang Kai-shek with his injured leg on his back, broke through the enemy's encirclement and blockade, and rescued Chiang Kai-shek. One life.

Life-saving grace is like reinvention. Judging from the situation at that time, there was a huge disparity in strength between the Kuomintang and Kuomintang. If he stayed in the Kuomintang army, he would surely enjoy endless glory and wealth. However, General Chen Geng saw from the perspective of time that although the Communist Party was powerful, a single spark could start a prairie fire, while the Kuomintang, although powerful, was only powerful on the outside but internally weak.

General Chen Geng decisively quit the Kuomintang and joined the Communist Party. Later, while working in Shanghai Special Branch, his hiding place was exposed and he was unfortunately caught. Chiang Kai-shek still tried to persuade him with good words, and asked Hu Zongnan and others to be lobbyists, as long as they were willing to come back and let bygones be bygones.

But General Chen Geng believed in his choice and never betrayed his faith. After returning to the organization, he continued to devote himself to the revolution, became an outstanding commander of our army, and was awarded the rank of general after the founding of New China.

It can be seen that the choices and even behaviors that were unbelievable at the time turned out to be so natural and logical when viewed from the perspective of time.

There are two or three major choices that determine a person's life. The more critical it is at such a critical time, the less likely it is to just consider the gains and losses at that time. Time should be the criterion for decision-making, even if it is difficult to understand at the time. Yes, but time will eventually give you the answer.

When Alibaba just started, Tsai Chongxin’s annual salary was already 5.8 million. At that time, the combined salary of all Alibaba people may not be as high as Tsai Chongxin, but he did something that made everyone feel It was an incredible choice. After several conversations with Jack Ma, he decisively joined Alibaba and received only a monthly salary of 500 yuan.

After making this choice, even Jack Ma came to advise Cai Chongxin not to do stupid things. But Tsai Chongxin did not change his choice. Sure enough, time proved that Tsai Chongxin’s choice was correct. In April 2021, the Forbes Global Rich List was released, and Tsai Chongxin ranked 18th on the list with a wealth of US$116.

Time is not only the basis for major choices in life, but also allows us to accumulate more wealth earlier.

In today's society, everyone is eager to achieve financial freedom and live the life they long for. If you could buy Tencent shares in 2008, you would hold them until now. Your assets will increase nearly 200 times, and the return rate will be higher than buying a house in Beijing, Shanghai and other places. But it is difficult for us to grasp this kind of thing. Not everyone can be a pig in the spotlight.

But there is one thing we can do, and indeed everyone can do it, which is to believe in time and use the compound interest effect of time to make investments.

Here we cannot help but mention a story about the stock god Buffett.

Buffett has a couple professor friends at the City University of New York. They published a book and received a royalty of US$50,000. The professor couple lived a simple and simple life without any extravagant hobbies. Their usual wages are enough to live on, but they really don't know how to use the money in their hands.

One day, the professor couple mentioned this matter to Buffett. Buffett said to them: "Let's do this. If you can trust me, invest in my company first and I will take care of it for you, okay?" At that time, although Buffett was not as famous as he is now, he was already somewhat famous. Of course they agree. So, they invested the money in Buffett's company.

After that, they never asked about it, and over time, they almost forgot about it. Until Mr. Professor passed away, Buffett went to the funeral. At the funeral, Buffett said to the wife, the money you put in me has now increased to more than 60 million US dollars. The professor's wife was so surprised that she asked Buffett why.

Buffett told the professor’s wife the concept of compound interest.

Assume that the annual investment return rate is 20% and the principal is 100,000 yuan. If calculated according to ordinary interest, the principal and interest will rise to 300,000 yuan after 10 years. But calculated according to the compound interest method, it will be 630,000 yuan after ten years. The longer the time, the greater the difference. It is really because of the magic of the compound interest effect that it was called the eighth wonder of the world by Einstein.

The compound interest effect of time is not only reflected in the accumulation of wealth, but is also useful in learning and life.

The book "Deliberate Practice" mentions the "10,000 hours" law. In any field, as long as you can use the right method to study for 10,000 hours, you can become an expert in this field. We often see this approach.

Imagine that if you practice writing a 1,000-word article every day, 365 days a year, that is 360,000 words, which is equivalent to a novel. There are 24 hours in a day. If we take one hour to read a book, assuming that each person reads 300 to 500 words per minute on average, then we can read 6.57 million to 10.95 million words per year, while "Historical Records" only has 526,500 words and "Ordinary People" "Life" only has 1.1 million words.

When we face major choices in life, when we walk alone on the road forward, we must believe in the power of time. The more difficult the moment, the more we must believe in the power of time. It will prove that our choices are correct and make our lives completely different.