Will the subprime mortgage crisis spread to China?
The subprime loan business in the United States is a good thing in itself. Its starting point is to provide loans to people with low credit rating or low income, so that they can realize their dream of owning their own house. 1994 ~2006, more than 9 million American families bought new houses, of which about 20% used subprime loans. But in this process, some negative factors gradually emerged, which eventually led to the outbreak of the crisis.
One is excessive securitization. Almost parallel to the sub-prime loan business is the securitization of the American economy. For example, people convert some debts that are unclear for a while into securities and then sell them to investors. In other words, anything risky can be converted into securities. Therefore, the lenders of subprime loans are not idle. They converted more than $600 billion of subprime loans into securities and sold them to investors in different countries. So, banks with rich investment experience can't see the high risks? Lenders of subprime loans have spent money to support many credit rating agencies, so they can easily get the highest credit rating of "AAA". The proliferation of "AAA" certificates has made banks lose their sensitivity to risks.
Second, it is inflation. As this "pie" grows bigger and bigger, the rich are profligate because of more and more book assets in their hands; Seeing that their houses are appreciating every day, the poor also start to buy things that they are reluctant to buy. Finally, the Fed had to raise interest rates to curb inflation. However, after the interest rate was raised, those poor people who were already short of money became unable to repay their loans, which led to a rapid increase in the proportion of arrears in the subprime mortgage market. At this point, the American economy suddenly fell into a state of low currency liquidity. When the economic development enters a low speed, it will be more difficult for the poor to pay off the mountain of subprime loans.
What can we learn from the American subprime mortgage crisis?
Some people may say that there is nothing to learn, because there is no subprime loan market in China. However, if we look closely, we will find that China's economy also contains elements similar to American subprime mortgage. If we don't pay attention to them, China's economy may be dragged into a vicious circle.
A typical example is the financial innovation project of China real estate. Many people in China want to get wealth by investing in real estate, so it is a good thing for banks to help people realize this wish. Banks all over the country have come up with all kinds of "clever tricks" to attract people to borrow money to buy a house. For example, in 2006, banks in Shenzhen launched a "biweekly payment" business, which allowed repayment in biweekly units instead of monthly units. In this way, the borrower can not only shorten the repayment period, but also pay less interest, so it is especially welcomed by the "real estate speculators". Another example is the "revolving loan" business, which allows people to mortgage commercial housing to banks and obtain a certain loan amount. In this way, the more real estate borrowers buy, the more loans they can get, so they are more sought after by real estate speculators. With the help of these financial innovation projects, the real estate price in Shenzhen rose at an alarming rate last year. According to the statistics of the National Development and Reform Commission, the price of newly-built commercial housing in Shenzhen has increased by as much as 13.5% every month. More than 60% of the buyers who buy houses with loans are not for their own needs, but for investment needs. By the end of last year, the scale of bank loans in Shenzhen had reached 70 billion yuan. Although there is no large-scale loan default at present, rising inflation rate may force the central bank to raise interest rates; Constantly raising interest rates will cause many "real estate speculators" to default because they can't afford to pay interest. At that time, in Shenzhen, where there is no subprime mortgage market, will it repeat the mistakes of the American-style subprime mortgage crisis-banks are afraid to make real estate loans again; There is not much money left to lend to other industries; Due to lack of cash, all economic activities stopped.
It is gratifying that in the second half of last year, the central government resolutely implemented the "new mortgage policy", which aims to curb speculative demand for real estate, curb the rising trend of housing prices, and ensure China's financial security. However, shortly after the implementation of the "New Deal", various voices of opposition began to appear. The purpose of these people is nothing more than to hope that the "new mortgage policy" will once again become an "air conditioner" and make a fortune in the final real estate madness. In fact, the steady development of China's economy is the greatest happiness for everyone in China. Why do you want to do the opposite?
Will there be a subprime mortgage crisis in China?
The scale of real estate loans in China has developed rapidly in recent years, which has had a great impact on the profitability and asset security of the banking industry. According to the 2007 Shanghai Real Estate Credit Operation Report issued by Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau in February, 2008, by the end of February, 2007, the balance of commercial real estate loans of Chinese banks in the city was 51376.2 billion yuan, an increase of 45.288 billion yuan over the beginning of the year and 6.328 billion yuan over the same period of last year, and the balance of real estate loans increased by10. By the end of February last year, 65438+, the real estate loans of China commercial banks accounted for 32.2% of all loans. If a large number of other loans secured by real estate are added, the fluctuation of real estate prices has affected the security of about half of the bank's credit assets. While the fluctuation of the real estate market intensifies and the macro-control is strengthened, the relationship between the real estate credit operation and the market is getting closer and closer. No matter banks, real estate development enterprises or mortgage borrowers, they are all facing the pressure and risks brought by the fluctuation of house prices. In view of this situation, Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau said that it would strengthen macro-supervision, pay attention to the trend of credit resources accumulation in the real estate industry, promptly remind banks to pay attention to potential systemic credit risks, formulate and implement reasonable and scientific credit policies, and disperse, manage and control real estate credit risks.
Comparing the real estate market in China with the subprime mortgage market in the United States, there are great differences between them. Most importantly, mortgage lenders generally apply for loans directly from banks without complicated derivatives. At the same time, the down payment of real estate is 20%, and the policy does not allow the issuance of zero down payment loans. However, we should also see the risks of housing mortgage loan in China.
First, the loan down payment ratio is low, false credit exists, and there are a large number of speculative loans. Before the implementation of the "New Deal" in real estate, the down payment ratio of China residents' real estate loans was 20%. However, in actual operation, there are also false operations. According to reports, in 2004, there was a major illegal loan in Shanghai where someone borrowed 78 million yuan to buy a 128 house and entered through false credit.
Second, loans that exceed the ability to pay are increasing. According to the Guidelines for Personal Housing Mortgage Loans issued by CBRC, the monthly repayment amount of personal mortgage loans shall not exceed 50% of the monthly disposable income of individual families. But in fact, when domestic residents and housing investors apply for housing mortgage loans, many people fail to meet this basic standard. Someone issued a false certificate of salary and income from the unit or someone else without authorization. In order to improve the performance of housing sales and loans, bank credit officers and real estate sales personnel even explicitly told lenders that they can lend money as long as they can get the certificate. Using false income certificates, salary certificates and other false documents to go to the bank to mortgage loans has undoubtedly laid a huge potential risk.
Third, the rapid increase in loan interest rates has caused some debtors to lose their ability to pay. In recent years, the central bank has repeatedly raised the benchmark interest rate for loans. From 5.3 1% to 5.58% on October 29th, 2004/kloc-0; On April 28th, 2006, the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions was raised by 0.27 percentage point to 5.85%. After the continuous increase of 10, the current one-year loan benchmark interest rate has been raised to 7.47%, which is undoubtedly a great pressure for lenders with poor credit and poor repayment ability.
Fourth, there is a downward trend after the skyrocketing housing prices. Statistics show that the housing price index in big cities has increased by about 20% in recent years. As far as specific buildings are concerned, it will rise by 50%, reaching more than 100%. The rapidly rising house prices have stimulated the enthusiasm of buyers, and real estate speculation has become a way to obtain huge wealth, which has made many people with low solvency participate in the purchase team. When the house price falls, the liquidity of the housing market decreases, and the loan interest rate rises sharply, it will inevitably increase the debt repayment pressure of high-priced buyers, and make bank credit face huge default risk.
How to prevent credit risk
The important enlightenment of subprime mortgage crisis to commercial banks is that ignoring risks in the stage of economic growth will inevitably lead to risks and even crises in the stage of economic slowdown. When the economy fluctuates periodically, the loan quality of commercial banks will bear the brunt.
First, strengthen the analysis of macroeconomic operation and pay close attention to the risks that may be brought about by economic cycle fluctuations. Since China entered a new round of economic growth cycle in 2002, domestic commercial banks have had a huge profit impulse under the strong loan demand, and at the same time, they are facing huge profit pressure due to excess liquidity. Driven by the impulse and pressure of profit, most banks pay more attention to profit and neglect and relax risk prevention, and the growth rate of loans, especially personal loans, remains high. The important enlightenment of subprime mortgage crisis to commercial banks is that ignoring risks in the stage of economic growth will inevitably lead to risks and even crises in the stage of economic slowdown. Judging from the current macro-control situation and operating environment, after nearly six years of rapid economic growth in China, the momentum of high economic growth in China may slow down in the next few years. When the economy fluctuates periodically, the loan quality of commercial banks bears the brunt. At the same time, banks in China must seriously consider how to better guard against risks in the global financial system. While China's financial industry is actively and steadily opening to the outside world and implementing the "going out" strategy, risks in the global financial system cannot be ignored. We must deepen reform, improve risk management capabilities and enhance comprehensive competitiveness.
Second, we should design credit products scientifically. An important reason for the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is that financial institutions have lowered their lending standards in order to make profits. In the face of rising housing prices, the first repayment source of housing loans, that is, the lender's own solvency, has been ignored. Lending companies and banks have launched a series of financial innovative products for marketing, securitizing these loans and transferring risks from bank books to capital markets. The risk itself has not disappeared, but has laid a curse for the crisis. Therefore, financial institutions must operate prudently and design credit products scientifically. At the same time, in specific business operations, we must abide by principles and standards and lay a good foundation for risk prevention.
Third, we must grasp the relationship between macroeconomic trends and specific products. At present, China's real estate is in an upward cycle, housing prices are rising rapidly, and personal housing mortgage loans are developing rapidly. Since 2007, the growth rate of individual housing loans in commercial housing loans has accelerated month by month. Judging from the lessons of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the rapid rise in housing prices often masks a large number of credit risks and operational risks. Banks must attach great importance to all kinds of financial risks in the development of real estate market. In this regard, the CBRC has repeatedly issued risk warnings to banks, requiring banks not to relax lending standards, strictly "three inspections", strictly guard against fake mortgages and fake loans, and conduct on-site inspections on bank real estate loans for many times. At the same time, in the context of rising housing prices, the CBRC also reminded banks to pay close attention to the price risk of loan collateral.
Fourth, we should make early warning and control the scale and risks. In recent years, due to the needs of strategic adjustment and business transformation, domestic commercial banks generally regard personal credit as the main growth point of income. Under the background of the rapid rise of asset prices and the pressure of callback, commercial banks should pay close attention to the risks of personal housing credit and personal housing mortgage loans, and should not simply treat personal loans or consumer loans as low-risk loans and blindly develop them. Judging from the real estate credit of banks in Shanghai, the rapid growth of personal credit has strengthened the long-term trend of bank credit, and the hidden dangers of rising non-performing assets of banks have increased. Therefore, drawing lessons from the subprime mortgage crisis, China's commercial banks should pay close attention to the risks of personal real estate loans, strengthen the construction of credit system and improve their risk prevention capabilities.
At the same time, financial supervision departments should strengthen supervision and prevent and stop financial institutions from issuing unqualified loans in violation of regulations. In the current turbulent financial environment, financial supervision plays a more important role.
Fifth, financial innovation should adhere to the principle of "prudent management". In the so-called financial innovation of subprime mortgage securitization in the United States, subprime mortgage not only quickly derived various financial products, but also was allocated to the investment product portfolio of various financial institutions. Highly leveraged institutions, such as hedge funds, use their financial leverage tools to amplify various transactions related to subprime loans by dozens or even hundreds of times, which leads to the complete disconnection between the value of derivative products and the value of real assets, amplifies the related investment and transaction risks, and makes financial activities deviate from the principle of "prudent operation" of financial institutions. When the risk concentration breaks out, it is too late to trace the quality of primary credit products. Therefore, in the process of product design and the execution of each single contract, we should reasonably evaluate the balance between lending behavior and potential risks under risk-free constraints in accordance with the principle of prudent operation, so as to nip in the bud.
Warning of subprime mortgage crisis
The "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States will increase the possibility of violent stock market turmoil, thus bringing challenges to the normal global financial order and even world economic growth.
Over the past year or so, the housing market in the United States has continued to cool down, which has led to a slowdown in the overall economic growth in the United States. However, the unanimous view of all parties is that it is unlikely that the continuous cooling of the US housing market and the "subprime mortgage crisis" will lead to a recession in the United States and the world, because the economic fundamentals of major economies are generally good, and the US and European central banks have sufficient means to regulate the economy. Therefore, in the near future, the impact of the "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States will be more reflected in the impact on the global financial market. Under the background that many financial markets around the world are facing speculative upsurge, the "subprime mortgage crisis" may, together with other bad news, aggravate investors' irrational emotions, thus causing large-scale shocks in the global financial markets in the near future.