With salary cuts, layoffs, and more than 150 factories suspending production, the crown jewel of modern industry has unfortunately faced the biggest crisis in history.

In the unforgettable first quarter of 2020, all major industrial chains around the world suffered a brutal blow. As one of the representatives of the manufacturing industry, the automobile industry was at the center of the storm.

How miserable was the global automobile industry in the first quarter? Let’s look at the data: The global auto market sold only 17.42 million vehicles in the first quarter, a sharp drop of 26% year-on-year.

This is just an average number. The European car market, which was hardest hit, saw sales in March hit a 38-year low. Among them, the UK dropped by 44, Spain dropped by 69, France dropped by 72, and Italy plummeted by 85.....

No one knows when the crisis will end, but the current situation shows that automobiles The depth and breadth of this crisis in the industry have exceeded ever before.

"German Automobile Godfather" Ferdinand made a pessimistic prediction: It will take 10 years for the global automobile market to return to the level of 2019!

Behind the scenes of swords and swords, the century-old glory of the entire automobile industry has ended like this?

一

In every crisis, layoffs, suspension of work and salary reduction are one of the self-rescue rules of enterprises. This time No exception.

Throughout the first quarter, when the global auto market was frozen, auto companies had already cut wages, laid off employees, and suspended production, staging a year-long drama.

On March 14, Ferrari announced the suspension of production of sports cars;

On March 17, Volkswagen Group suspended production in Spain, Portugal, Italy and other places;

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On March 19, the three U.S. auto giants Ford, General Motors, and Fiat Chrysler announced a complete suspension of production;

On March 27, General Motors announced a temporary salary cut of 20% for its 69,000 employees;

On March 28, the North American International Auto Show in Detroit was canceled and the venue was converted into a makeshift hospital...

According to statistics, by 4 At the beginning of the month, more than 150 automobile manufacturers globally had suspended production, and more than 3,000 parts companies had suspended production. More than 10 domestic car companies, including SAIC and BAIC, have come together to cut wages, with the highest being as much as 70%.

At the end of March, the U.S. stock market staged a desperate counterattack after Trump’s careful protection and the Federal Reserve’s crazy watering down, ending the epic plunge in one fell swoop. But the global automobile industry is not so lucky, and it will be even worse in April.

Data show that the global auto market continued to plummet in April, with sales in mainstream markets such as China, Europe and the United States all falling by more than 10%.

Especially in the European car markets, the decline continued to expand in April: France’s new car sales fell by 89%, Italy plunged by 98%, and the UK plunged by 97%, reaching the lowest level since 1946.

The world-renowned German manufacturing industry cannot resist. In April, new car sales hit the lowest level since 1991. Volkswagen and Daimler have turned to the German government to boost car demand. .

But the worst situation in April was not Europe, but India. Because of the nationwide blockade in India, factories and dealer showrooms were closed, and car sales in April were zero.

At present, India’s automobile industry chain supports nearly 40 million people, contributing more than 8% to the country’s GDP and more than 15% of government tax revenue. So this time it is definitely a huge blow to India.

It must be said here that Indian Asan is really bad. He has been devastated by the epidemic, and he actually followed Europe and the United States and clamored for compensation from us. What kind of logic is this?

As the saying goes, children who cry are fed by milk. Of course, the car companies are selling badly and crying about poverty, and of course they will not cry in vain.

At present, governments of various countries have successively launched rescue operations. The US$2 trillion stimulus plan in the United States will include a large amount of funds to rescue major automobile manufacturers, parts suppliers and automobile dealers.

The French government expressed its willingness to provide approximately 300 billion euros in loans to save the two major automobile groups, Renault and Citro?n.

In Germany, because the stock prices of Volkswagen and other car companies have plummeted, in order to prevent the pride of German manufacturing from being acquired by outsiders, the government will provide approximately 150 billion euros to assist car companies.

I believe that there are currently more than 3.65 million confirmed cases worldwide, and the epidemic is still raging in Europe and the United States. Although people there are eager to resume work and production, their desire to consume is significantly reduced.

With further stimulus, cars are also bulk consumer goods and may not be able to reverse the decline in the short term.

It is not without reason that this crisis is called the biggest difficulty for the global automobile industry. Even before the outbreak of the epidemic, the global automobile market was already in decline.

二

The once-in-a-century epidemic is indeed the trigger for the sudden freeze in the automobile industry, but from a deeper perspective, there are at least two The reason has led to the current tragic situation.

The first is the irreversible downward cycle of the global auto market. From 2017 to 2019, the global auto market sales have been declining, from 95.66 million vehicles to 95.06 million vehicles and 90.3 million vehicles. As the world's largest automobile sales market, China's sales volume was 25.76 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%.

Why doesn’t anyone buy a car anymore? First, there are too many cars. According to statistics, the current number of cars in my country has reached an astonishing 240 million, with an average of one car for every six people. Looking at developed countries in Europe and the United States, the number of people in possession will only increase, and cars are no longer as rare as they used to be. With cars overcrowded, who will buy a car?

The second is the global economic downturn. There was an interesting phenomenon last year: the supermodel feast "Victoria's Secret Show" was cancelled.

In 2001, the Victoria's Secret Show was broadcast on ABC TV for the first time, setting a viewership record of 12.4 million people and causing a sensation in the United States. Twenty years after it became popular, only 3.3 million Americans watched the 2018 Victoria’s Secret show. The ratings were low and the show could only end sadly.

There is a "short skirt effect" in economics: the shorter a woman's skirt, the more prosperous the economy is; the longer the skirt, the more depressed the economy.

The Victoria's Secret Show is like a weathervane, and its cancellation also confirms the fact that the global economy is in a downturn. Under this background, everyone has no desire to even look at beautiful women, let alone buy a car...

Therefore, as early as the past two years, the global car market has entered a In the downturn, news about car companies laying off employees and cutting wages come and go like a TV series. The sudden epidemic has sprinkled salt on the wound.

Secondly, under the new energy wave, traditional car companies cannot guarantee their own quality. In recent years, new energy vehicles have continued to divide the pie, while traditional car companies have frequently fallen out of favor. Japanese Toyota, Nissan, German Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, etc. have successively recalled problem cars around the world, hurting consumers' trust again and again.

Take Mercedes-Benz as an example. Although it is known as a century-old car company and a pearl made in Germany, its product control is not as good as each generation.

In 2019, a female Mercedes-Benz car owner in Xi’an made a fuss to protect her rights because the engine leaked oil before the car left the 4S store. Service fee.

In 2020, the problem is even more bizarre. On January 4, foreign media reported that Mercedes-Benz will recall approximately 750,000 vehicles in the United States, including four models of the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, E-Class, CLK-Class and CLS-Class produced from 2001 to 2011. .

The reason turned out to be that there was a problem with the sunroofs of these cars. They might separate and fly away when driving at high speeds. This quality is also of no use.

In China, Mercedes-Benz has set a record of nine recalls in four months:

On February 25, two recall messages were sent out to recall Mercedes-Benz. More than 10,000 vehicles such as C-class and E-class suffered from a problem with the seat belts and a possible breakage of the shock absorbers.

On March 20, more than 4,800 vehicles were recalled due to sun visor problems.

In April, Mercedes-Benz recalled its vehicles multiple times in China. The reasons for the recalls are also endless, including rubber materials, front door wiring harnesses, sunroofs...

So far, Mercedes-Benz has recalled 9 times in the first 4 months. The models also involve top luxury cars such as S-Class and G-Class. This is also true for flagship models. If it is a regular model, the quality control and after-sales service will be worrying. .....

For any industry, when the external environment is not good, quality must be strived for. On the one hand, there is the pursuit of new energy sources, and on the other hand, there is the critical attack of the epidemic. If traditional car companies do not pay attention to quality control, how will they survive until the next spring?

"Jiang Dongwen" comments:

Amid internal and external difficulties, what is the future of car companies?

In new energy, bans on the sale of fuel vehicles in various countries around the world have been put on the agenda. When the three German giants BBA laid off employees last year, they also expressed their intention to tighten their belts and save money. The money will be invested in the research and development of electrification and digital technologies.

The automobile industry will undoubtedly change in a century. Moreover, new energy is also an important opportunity for overtaking in the curve of China's automobile industry chain.

The automobile industry chain contributes 8% of India’s GDP and is equally important in China. The huge upstream and downstream industries provide a lot of employment and tax revenue. However, after all, the competitiveness of domestically produced cars is limited, just like the copycats in mobile phones. machine.

With the arrival of new energy vehicles, the entire industry will inevitably undergo a reshuffle and upgrade. It will allow the global automotive industry to move from traditional to intelligent and digital, just like the The smartphone revolution.

After China introduced the Apple industry chain to China, domestic copycat phones closed down one after another, leaving only giants such as Xiaomi, OV, and Huawei. Today, only a few giants stand together. , it is possible to challenge Apple and Samsung.

Referring to the progress of smartphones, China is now vigorously introducing Tesla to China, which is forcing the domestic automobile industry chain to comprehensively upgrade.

Buffett once said at the 2020 Shareholders' Meeting that a serious crisis should not be wasted. Therefore, crises always arise with opportunities.

As long as China firmly seizes this opportunity for automobile intelligence as it did when it introduced the Apple industry chain, we will witness another major rise in the future!