There is regional differentiation in domestic real estate market.
At the end of 20 15, Kunming Municipal Bureau of Land and Resources issued the Notice on Prohibiting Land-using Units from Participating in a New Round of Land Bidding, and 34 enterprises failed to pay the land transfer fee. In fact, in June 20 14 and 10, the bureau also issued similar notices, involving 25 real estate enterprises at that time, and the total land transfer fee was more than 4 billion yuan.
In just one year, there are more and more housing enterprises in Kunming that are in arrears with land payment, and the amount is also increasing. "The trend of several indicators in the Kunming real estate market last year was not optimistic. Both the volume (including the number of sets and the area) and the price decreased. Although the transaction volume of individual intervals (weeks or months) has rebounded, the downward trend is very obvious, and house prices have reached a low point in recent years. " Gao Ran, a real estate consultant in Kunming, said that last year's new investment also showed a downward trend.
"Unlike the recovery of first-tier cities and some second-tier cities,' continuous decline and then decline' was the main tone of housing prices in Kunming last year. Many housing companies choose to cut prices, but the year-end data is still not very good. " The sales staff of a real estate company in Kunming summed it up as 20 15 when they tried their best to promote the year-end activities of the real estate to reporters. "The Kunming Autumn Housing Fair, which has been held for more than ten years, ended unexpectedly last year, which also reflects the weak market in Kunming. Many enterprises are short of money and under great pressure."
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the housing prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities in 65438+February last year, showing that 49 cities fell year-on-year. The price increase of first-tier cities and some hot-spot second-tier cities is significantly higher than that of other cities, and the average price of third-tier cities is still declining year-on-year. Since June 2065438+2004, the house price in Kunming has been falling continuously, but the transaction area and number of transactions in Kunming have not been significantly enlarged.
"20 15 The domestic real estate market is obviously divided. The sales of commercial housing in first-tier and hot-spot second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have picked up rapidly, but the sales in other second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities are still sluggish. Kunming is roughly between second-tier and third-tier cities, with little change in sales. At the same time, the real estate market in cities in Yunnan continued to be sluggish. " An expert from the Housing and Construction Department of Yunnan Province said.
The statistics of the completed area of commercial housing for sale by the statistics department show that by the end of 20 15438+0 1, there will be 696 million square meters in China; Yunnan19139,800 square meters, accounting for 2.7% of the country; Kunming is 7,530,300 square meters, accounting for 39.3% of the province. "If calculated by the average monthly sales area of commercial housing in 20 15 years, the digestive cycle of completed commercial housing for sale in China, Yunnan and Kunming has been extended compared with previous years, and the destocking pressure in Yunnan is slightly higher than the national average." The above experts said.
Zhou Dayan, director of the Real Estate Investment and Financing Research Center of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, believes that the current differentiation of the property market does exist, although it is not necessarily a world of ice and fire, mainly in two aspects: one is the differentiation between big cities and small and medium-sized cities under regional differences, and the other is the differentiation between different regions within big cities and small and medium-sized cities. Among them, some second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities are under great pressure, and the structural contradiction of the problem of de-housing of commercial houses such as shops and office buildings is more prominent.
The pressure of "weak foundation" in third-and fourth-tier cities is even greater.
According to the analysis of insiders, in addition to the * * * factors such as the downward pressure on the economy and the faster supply of real estate than the growth rate of sales, the homogenization competition in the real estate industry in some second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities, the high dependence on "land finance", the relatively weak economic foundation and the lower-than-expected population inflow are the main reasons for the high total inventory of commercial housing and the prolonged destocking period. In contrast, first-tier cities are more resistant to this.
First, affected by the macroeconomic situation, the supply of commercial housing is faster than the sales growth. Since 20 10, in order to curb the problem of excessive housing prices in some cities, the state has implemented comprehensive policies and measures such as differentiated credit and taxation to increase the supply of commercial housing and curb the demand for speculative investment. Kunming implemented the purchase restriction policy on 20 1 1. Since 20 14, the downward pressure of domestic economy has been superimposed with the above policy effects, and the supply of commercial housing has increased rapidly, but the sales growth rate has gradually slowed down, and the relationship between supply and demand in the market has changed significantly.
"At this stage, the oversupply and the slowdown in demand are, to a certain extent, the embodiment of the drawbacks of the previous' unified' real estate policy, which has led to a growing gap between supply and demand scissors." Zhou Dayan said that even more than half of the housing demand in some cities was suppressed by some previous one-size-fits-all policies, but the supply was obviously enlarged.
Second, the support of some cities is weak, and the consumer market has a strong wait-and-see mood. On the one hand, the implementation of some previous real estate policies may aggravate the wait-and-see mood of the market to some extent. Buyers who hold money for purchase will think that this is a manifestation of market compromise, and there will still be price concessions in the market outlook. On the other hand, influenced by public opinion such as the introduction of property tax and the implementation of real estate registration system, the willingness of urban residents to buy houses and market expectations have also changed significantly.
Zhou Dayan pointed out that due to the scale effect of the city, the advantages of social service resources and the continuous inflow of population, the real estate market in cities such as Beishangguang has been strongly supported. In some second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities, the economic base is weak, the economy is declining, the population inflow is lower than expected, the effect of local government intervention in the real estate market is weak, and the housing stock is high.
Third, the homogenization competition in the market is serious and there are too many market bubbles. Zhou Guofan, chairman of Yunnan Hebangda Investment Co., Ltd. also pointed out that the high inventory in some cities is the result of abnormal competition and development of the real estate industry to some extent. Some large and medium-sized housing enterprises ignore the actual demand and blindly mass-produce, resulting in product homogeneity and large inventory. Small enterprises have been copying the model of large and medium-sized enterprises, leading to problems on the supply side.
Fourth, the sequela of the "Great Leap Forward" of real estate in some cities is emerging. Zhou Dayan said that real estate development in some cities is a "great leap forward", and enterprises blindly follow suit, leading to the accumulation of problems. Taking Kunming as an example, the property market is closely related to the large-scale transformation of villages in cities, and it has entered the blowout period of commercial real estate supply, forming the main supply of commercial housing in Kunming. "Although the renovation of villages in Kunming has been tightened at present, it has caused a great bubble, and the problems left for the Kunming property market and even the whole city will take many years to digest."
Although the policy of 1 in February once again lowered the "threshold" of non-restricted urban housing loans, which was intended to stimulate market demand and resolve excess inventory, the effect remains to be seen by the market. "At present, the national market is clearly differentiated, and it is expected that the implementation of this policy will be different in different places." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the first-tier cities failed to implement the new down payment policy due to restrictions on purchases, but it had a great impact on psychological expectations. It is expected that the positive response is mainly in second-tier cities. Banks in third-and fourth-tier cities are cautious in lending, and it is unlikely to be implemented.
Promoting the digestion and development of stocks requires both the government and enterprises.
Some insiders said that the problem of real estate inventory destocking is a phased problem formed in the development of the real estate market. The regional differentiation of the national real estate market is prominent, which shows that in addition to implementing national policies, it is necessary to do a good job in the research and reserve of local policies and measures, and combine the reality of small and medium-sized cities to refine targeted measures. At the same time, actively guide the real estate industry to adjust and transform in time, and accelerate the digestion and development of real estate inventory.
First, increase supply and implement policies to promote housing consumption. Relevant persons from the Housing and Construction Department of Yunnan Province pointed out that the main ways include promoting housing consumption and transferring inventory through finance, household registration and housing standards. We should continue to reduce RRR and interest rates, and continue to reduce the down payment of commercial loans; Promote household registration reform. For example, Chenggong District in Kunming has a small population and a large stock of houses, so we can consider implementing the policy of purchasing houses and settling down in Chenggong. It is necessary to adjust the definition standard of ordinary housing to reduce transaction taxes and fees, improve consumers' confidence in the real estate market and promote improved housing consumption; The local government should consider implementing the housing subsidy policy, and at the same time, based on the actual situation in Kunming, encourage the monetized resettlement of the village-in-city project and the three old reconstruction projects, and purchase and build them on behalf of the agent, so as to achieve a win-win situation among the relocated households, the government and enterprises.
"Taxes and fees in the real estate industry have increased the cost of real estate development and limited the investment demand and improvement demand of the real estate market except rigid demand." Zhou Dayan said that promoting inventory digestion requires the government to make a breakthrough in tax and fee policies.
The second is to actively guide the role change of real estate. In the eyes of some industry observers, in the past, housing enterprises only searched for money, took land and sold houses repeatedly. This model is out of date. We should pay more attention to guiding the matching and combination of real estate and other industries and provide personalized customized services. "For example, some real estate companies try to produce products according to customers' needs, and the customization of C2B projects to meet the different needs of different customers is one direction." Zhou Guofan said.
(The above answers were published on 20 16-02- 18. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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