In April 2016, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen was only more than 4,000 units. Compared with the average monthly transaction volume of 11,000 units in 2015, this number can be described as "cut in half."

A "mortgage number" of 7,000 yuan

The property market is freezing, Shenzhen speculators are rushing to mortgage properties

Author: Southern Weekend reporter Zhang Xia Southern Weekend intern Liu Xiaojie< /p>

The purchase restriction policy has caused the Shenzhen property market, which was boiling with fire, to quickly freeze into a "frozen city" with prices but no market. Only then did people discover that another wave of craze after the property market surge - "red book" mortgage cash-out, had already quietly emerged.

The reason for the mortgage craze is that if house prices continue to rise in the future, the property will still be in the hands of the owner and can be held for appreciation or rented out; if house prices fall, the property can be loaned from the bank at an appraised price of 70% of the current market price. Mortgages can also provide homeowners with fixed income.

A mortgage number is harder to get than a Spring Festival train ticket

The "mortgage number" for real estate mortgage registration is "hard to find" in Shenzhen, and the scalper price has reached 7,000 yuan per number .

On May 6, 2016, people coming and going were waiting in front of the four mortgage windows in the lobby on the third floor of the Shenzhen Real Estate Rights Registration Center (hereinafter referred to as the Registration Center) in the Shenzhen Jinhu Cultural Center Calling the number, they have obtained the "mortgage number" of the real estate mortgage registration through online reservation or help from "scalpers". This number is now "difficult to get" in Shenzhen, "even harder than getting a Spring Festival train ticket".

While waiting in the lobby of the registration center, many people told Southern Weekend reporters their own experiences of successful online reservations: getting up around 6 o'clock, sitting in front of the computer at 6:50 and opening the reservation at the Shenzhen Real Estate Rights Registration Center Page, fill in the information, and grab the number immediately when the number is released at 7 o'clock.

“I made an appointment for a week for this mortgage number, and I was late to send my children to school several times.” A woman in her 30s said while filling in the information.

The on-site staff told Southern Weekend reporters that the entire system has been upgraded recently, so it is difficult to make an appointment. In addition, there are "scalpers" speculating on accounts, resulting in many people not being able to get an appointment.

After many local media reported that “It’s hard to find the first number for real estate mortgage registration,” the registration center released more numbers from time to time.

Wang Mingli, who works in the biotechnology industry, just helped her boss apply for a property mortgage loan on April 18. She told the Southern Weekend reporter, "I heard a friend say that she spent 7,000 yuan with Mortgage numbers bought by scalpers."

The person in charge of news and publicity at the registration center told Southern Weekend reporters that it was difficult to get a ticket because some people maliciously grabbed the number through account grabbing software and there were also scalpers speculating on the number. A staff member who handles mortgage business on site also said, “Currently, 1,500 numbers are issued a day, but less than 1,000 can be processed, and hundreds of numbers (in the hands of scalpers) have become invalid.”

The Jinhu Cultural Center branch has the largest number of people because it undertakes business in Luohu and Yantian districts. In the lobby on the third floor, there are ten bank branches including Minsheng, CITIC, and Industrial and Commercial. In the opinion of the above-mentioned staff member, "Everyone comes here to apply for mortgages because some banks specifically require them to handle mortgages here, so banks don't have to set up branches in other places. There are the most banks here."

The security guard at the registration center told Southern Weekend reporters that last year the registration center also implemented offline queuing to make appointments. “Some people came to queue at two or three in the morning, and there were people inside and outside the hall.”

In order to avoid queuing in the early morning, starting from the second half of 2015, the registration center will issue all numbers through online reservation. Therefore, most people can only "fight for character" like grabbing Spring Festival train tickets. , strive for Internet speed”.

The rush to cash out after the surge in the housing market

The window for transfer and delivery of documents was “instantly deserted.” The mortgage window was not only crowded, but also “hard to find.” “The market was already very cold. , why are mortgages still so popular? ”

The popularity of real estate mortgages is accompanied by the surge in the Shenzhen property market.

In 2015, Shenzhen created a miracle in the history of Chinese real estate. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, housing prices in Shenzhen increased by 47.5% year-on-year, leading the country in growth. In reality, the wealth in the hands of most Shenzhen real estate holders has more than doubled within a year.

Until the introduction of Shenzhen’s “March 25 New Deal” in March this year, the out-of-control boom in Shenzhen’s property market came to an abrupt end. The "March 25 New Deal" changed the original one-year social security qualification for house purchase to three consecutive years, and the down payment for a mortgage loan applied for within two years increased from 30% to 40%.

In addition to the "March 25 New Deal", another policy that has caused a sharp decline in Shenzhen's second-hand housing transaction volume that has not been noticed by the outside world is that starting from April 1, the assessed price of real estate transactions has increased by 50%. .

This appraisal price increase is less than half a year after the 50% increase in October 2015. At the same time, the lines drawn by Shenzhen for ordinary residences and luxury homes have not been raised. This has resulted in many formerly ordinary residences being replaced by luxury homes. Once it is classified as a luxury property, it means you have to pay more taxes when trading.

Take Nanshan District as an example. A house with a total price of more than 4.9 million yuan is considered a luxury house. But now the average price in Nanshan District is close to 70,000 yuan per square meter, which means that a house with a total price of 70 square meters is considered a luxury house. The deed tax for luxury homes is three times that of ordinary residences, and this alone adds 2% to transaction costs.

Huang Sheng, a real estate speculator, told Southern Weekend reporters, "It is customary to adjust the appraisal price once a year. It was just adjusted once in October 2015, and it was raised by 50% in less than half a year. The house price has definitely not been the same in the past six months. Maybe the government still wants to use this method to combat short-term speculation. "House prices have not come down, but the tax has gone up, which is actually equivalent to an increase of 10% of the down payment," a real estate agent told. Southern Weekend reporter, the transaction costs of luxury homes in Shenzhen have become frighteningly high. For example, in the well-known luxury community "Xiangmi Lake No. 1", the cheapest house transaction has a tax of more than one million yuan, and the most expensive one has to pay a tax of RMB 70,000. More than a million.

Within one month, the New Deal had immediate effects. According to data from the real estate agency Lianjia Company, in April, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen was only more than 4,000 units. Compared with the average monthly transaction volume of 11,000 units in 2015, the average monthly transaction volume in the past ten years was 8,000 units, which can be described as "cut in half."

The policy of strong purchase restrictions has caused the Shenzhen property market, which was boiling in flames, to freeze into a frozen market with prices but no market. Only then did people discover that another wave of craze after the property market surge - "red book" (real estate certificate) mortgage cash-out, had already quietly emerged.

In October 2015, Chen Feng, an industry insider who has studied the Shenzhen real estate market for many years, went to the Land and Resources Bureau to investigate and found that there were more people handling business at the mortgage window than expected, and a hall was full of people. " Because the window next to the transfer and delivery window was also crowded at that time, I didn’t pay much attention.”

At the end of April 2016, when Chen Feng went to the Bureau of Land and Resources to investigate again, he found that the window for transfer and delivery of documents was "very deserted at the moment." In contrast, the mortgage window was not only crowded, but also "difficult to open the first number." "The market is already very cold, why is mortgage still so popular?" Only then did she feel that "something was wrong."

So, she asked a friend who specializes in mortgage consumer loans at a state-owned bank, and the other party told her that starting from the fourth quarter of 2015, the real estate mortgage loan business has become "hot".

Southern Weekend reporters learned from people who handle mortgage business in banks and intermediaries that mortgage business began to increase in May 2015. "In the first quarter of 2016, our consumer loans plus housing mortgages have completed 280% of the full-year task." A credit manager from China Everbright Bank told a Southern Weekend reporter, "Many people cashed out their mortgages to invest in buying houses."

"Pick up bamboo shoots" and speculate on peripherals

The final outcome of every round of Shenzhen's rise is that funds flow to Dongguan, Huizhou and other places, but this year there is another Zhongshan.

A credit manager of a bank in Shenzhen told Southern Weekend reporters that the "purpose of funds" mortgaged by "red books" can be corporate capital turnover, decoration, buying furniture and home appliances, travel, etc. But in fact, the cash out Most of the funds flow to other uses, such as buying houses, stock trading, buying financial products, etc.

Purchasing a house is a major capital flow, but what is curious is that the local property market in Shenzhen has been "quickly frozen" by the purchase restriction policy, so where does the money for mortgage cash flow go to the property market?

The answer is, around Shenzhen.

In the industry, under the New Deal, houses sold at low prices by sellers because they were unable to continue mortgage payments were called "bamboo shoots." According to Chen Feng's observation, many people use mortgages to cash out just to "pick up bamboo shoots." "Since April, some people think that there will be bamboo shoots in the market. They are particularly sensitive to funds and cash out in advance. Once there is a bamboo shoot, they will sell immediately." .

(The above answers were published on 2016-05-12, please refer to the actual current home purchase policies)

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