After the regulation and upgrading of the property market, Shenzhen handed over the transcripts of the property market in July.
According to data from Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, 3,478 new houses were sold in Shenzhen in July, up 4.0% from the previous month. In July, the number of second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen was 13407, up 26.6% from the previous month. A total of 16885 sets of second-hand houses were sold, up 2 1.2% from the previous month. According to the sales data, the transaction of new houses and the transfer of second-hand houses in Shenzhen still hit a new high in July. However, influenced by the "7 15 New Deal", the volume of transactions from July 1 to June 14 before the New Deal accounted for about 70% of the total volume in July, while the volume after the New Deal only accounted for 30%.
On July 15 this year, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Shenzhen, which included adjusting the limited purchase period of commercial housing, improving differentiated housing credit measures, giving full play to the role of tax control, refining ordinary housing standards, strengthening the sales management of hot real estate, implementing the management of online signing of housing mortgage contracts, increasing the disclosure of second-hand housing transaction information, and severely cracking down on illegal activities in the real estate market. On July 30th, Shenzhen Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued the "New Eight Articles" on the regulation of the property market, clearly controlling the listing price of intermediaries. Intermediaries shall not accept and publish the listing price that is significantly higher than the reasonable transaction price of real estate. Before the introduction of the policy, the housing and construction bureaus of all districts should urge the intermediary agencies to take off the shelves in time.
Along with the landing of the property market regulation policy, it also brings a cooling effect to the "hot" Shenzhen property market. Judging from the transaction of new houses in July, in July, 3,478 sets of new houses were sold in Shenzhen, up 4.0% from the previous month; The transaction area was 348,000 square meters, up 3.7% from the previous month. The transaction volume of new houses is closely related to the supply. With the three consecutive increases in supply area, the turnover of new houses has risen for two consecutive months, and the number and area of transactions have reached new highs in the year.
Judging from the transaction area of each district, Longgang ranked first in July with the transaction volume of174,900 square meters, accounting for 50.2% of the city's transactions; The transaction area of Guangming New District is 55,700 square meters, accounting for 16.0% of the city's transaction, ranking second; The transaction volume in Pingshan New District was 34,900 square meters, accounting for 65,438+00.0%. The transaction in Luohu District was completed in July.
Judging from the change of transaction area, the transaction area of the five districts increased in July, while the transaction area of the six districts decreased. Among them, Guangming's trading volume increased most significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 193. 1%. There was no transaction in Luohu District in July, down100%; The volume of transactions in Futian, Nanshan and Shenzhen also fell by more than 50%. In terms of second-hand housing, from the transfer data, the number of second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen in July was 13407 sets, up 26.6% from the previous month; Transaction area1148,000 square meters, up 26.7% from the previous month. In July, the number of transfer transactions reached a new high since 2065438+April 2006.
However, due to the time difference between the data of transfer transaction and the data of signing transaction, the houses transferred in July are mainly those signed before June (including June). According to the data of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, about 90% of the houses transferred in July were signed before June (including June).
In July, the number of transactions in various districts of Shenzhen generally rose. The number of transactions in Yantian, Baoan and Nanshan increased by more than 30%. Yantian sold 293 sets this month, up 33.2% from the previous month, with the largest increase. The number of transactions in Longgang increased by 25.8% from the previous month to 3,759, ranking first in the city, accounting for 28.0% of the transactions. Judging from the fluctuation range of sample houses, the fluctuation range of houses is within 10%. 67.0% of the sample house prices rose and 33.0% of the sample house prices fell. The proportion of sample houses increased the most, ranging from 5%~ 10%, accounting for 36%.
Zheng Shulun, managing director of Shenzhen Zhongyuan, pointed out that the overall real-time trading activity of the second-hand market increased in July compared with last month, but affected by the 7 15 New Deal, the market atmosphere plummeted in the second half of the month, and the trading volume also dropped significantly. Before the New Deal, the transaction volume from July 1 to July 14 accounted for about 70% of this month's transactions, while the transaction volume after the New Deal only accounted for 30%.
The 30th Weekly Report in 2020 issued by Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association also indicated that the influence of the New Deal will continue to ferment, and the online signing of second-hand houses will continue to run at a low level. According to the data of commercial housing transaction (completed property transfer) published by Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau's real estate information platform, Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association shows that from July 20th to July 26th, the transaction volume of new houses and second-hand houses in Shenzhen (completed property transfer) was 747 sets and 20 10 sets respectively. Online sign for second-hand houses 1700 sets (including self-service online sign). This number was 10023 sets and 5 143 sets respectively in the first two weeks. The impact of the "July 15" New Deal on market turnover is "obvious". Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association predicts that with the continuous emergence of the influence of the New Deal, the number of online signing of second-hand houses in Shenzhen will remain low for some time to come.
The Quarterly Report of Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Industry in the Second Quarter of 2020 issued by Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association also mentioned that according to the statistics of Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, the online signing order volume of second-hand houses in the second quarter of 2020 was 36,745 sets (excluding self-service online signing 5 163 sets), up 1.7% from the previous quarter and 69.9% year-on-year. However, in view of the fact that the global epidemic has not subsided, the uncertainty of macroeconomic fundamentals caused by international economic and trade frictions still exists. At the same time, the fiery phenomenon of Shenzhen property market in the second quarter has also aroused great concern across the country. Therefore, a new round of property market regulation (7. 15 New Deal) is very necessary from the perspective of preventing funds from escaping from reality and from the perspective of preventing speculation. As a "grey rhinoceros" incident in the industry, the regulatory policy will inevitably have a far-reaching impact on the entire Shenzhen property market and the Shenzhen real estate agency industry in the third quarter and even the second half of the year. It is inevitable that the trading volume will fluctuate greatly in the short term. In the long run, the butterfly change of industry competition mode and the urgency of industry transformation and upgrading will be highlighted again with the change of market environment.
Zheng Shulun pointed out that the supply of new houses in Shenzhen has gradually increased recently, and a large number of potential projects are planned to enter the market in August. It is expected that the turnover of new houses will continue to rise next month. In the second-hand market, from the perspective of the Central Plains Index, the Central Plains Manager Index has dropped significantly, indicating that managers' expectations for the market outlook have decreased. Judging from the quotation index, the quotation index has declined in the past three weeks, indicating that the confidence of the owners has weakened. Under the influence of the New Deal, the real-time second-hand transaction volume will drop significantly next month, but due to the lag of transfer, the transfer data may remain at a high level next month.