Some analysts predict that, considering the slow recovery of credit demand, the LPR (loan market quoted interest rate) over five years may still be lowered, with an estimated space of 15BP. The superimposed epidemic situation has eased, and the effect of urban policies has been further transmitted. I hope that the credit increase in June can be further improved. However, it may take another two months for commercial housing sales and residents' credit to officially pick up.
Property buyers are "eager to move"
"Now the mortgage interest rate is very cheap, and the minimum for the first suite can reach 4.25%, and the house price has also come down. It must be very exciting. " Zhang Qiang (a pseudonym) from a third-tier city has long wanted to change rooms. Recently, the mortgage interest rate has been lowered all the way, which makes him excited. Previously, his city relaxed the policy of restricting sales and purchases. As long as the house with two bedrooms and one living room is sold and then bought, you can enjoy the loan policy of the first suite.
Judging from the transaction in May, according to Kerry data, the estimated transaction area of 30 monitored cities is 1.3 1.800 square meters, up 4% from the previous month, but still down 59% from the same period last year. In May, the monthly performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises increased by 5.6% month-on-month and decreased by 59.4% year-on-year. Although the chain has been picking up and the year-on-year decline has not expanded significantly, the pressure is still not small.
In this context, while supporting the just-needed, many places have taken a "two-pronged approach" since the second quarter, focusing on attracting improved housing demand like Zhang Qiang through urban policies. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, more than 150 cities have issued real estate control policies this year, setting a historical record. Among them, in May alone, more than 100 cities issued more than 1 10 new policies to stabilize the property market.
However, an obvious change is that after a round of large-scale relaxation in third-and fourth-tier cities, popular second-tier cities have gradually become the main force of recent regulation. However, compared with third-and fourth-tier cities, the main contradiction lies in the destocking pressure of new housing. Popular second-tier cities are often active in the second-hand housing market. On the one hand, families with many children are the main targets of improved demand for directional relaxation and stimulation; On the other hand, with the balance of "housing and not speculation" and the development of housing demand in remote urban areas, Foshan, Qingdao, Chengdu and other cities with low transformation rates in peripheral areas have introduced new policies.
Although first-tier cities rarely loosen the property market, outer suburbs and even surrounding cities are also good choices. For example, Li Wei (pseudonym), who has been "drifting north" for many years, recently learned about the policy of loosening the property market around Beijing and considered starting a house in Yanjiao, Hebei.
As the choice of many commuters from other places in Beijing, Yanjiao property market has been cooling down since 20 17 due to the influence of policies such as restricted purchases. At present, the prices of many popular residential areas have been lowered at a high level. For example, the average price of Sweet City in Seoul after Li Wei's fancy has dropped from nearly 40,000 yuan/square meter in that year to about 1.5 million yuan 1.8 million yuan/square meter.
There are hidden worries behind the lack of credit.
However, a large part of these needs have not yet landed. The credit data released by the central bank in May showed that the medium and long-term loans reflecting the housing demand of residents increased by 654.38+004.7 billion yuan. Although it was better than April, it still increased by 337.9 billion yuan year-on-year. This also means that the monthly increment of residents' medium and long-term loans continued to decline year-on-year, with rare negative growth in February and April.
This is actually in line with the housing transaction volume in May. According to brokerage analysis, mortgage data generally lags behind real estate sales, and the current real estate boom is still in a relatively low stage.
The rebound in sales volume is not only the result of the rebound in industry confidence, but also a prerequisite. So what's the problem? When can residents' confidence in buying houses be restored?
Zhang Qiang's heart has been slow to move. There are two main considerations: house price and capital. "Now in this environment, it is definitely impossible for house prices to rise sharply. If I had a rigid demand, I would definitely buy it first, but now there is a person who is not in a hurry and wants to change a big house. Insufficient funds can only wait and see. " Zhang Qiang said that although the low housing price is a good starting opportunity, he just can't bear to sell the house and has no way to withdraw funds. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, Zhang Qiang, who wholesales condiments, obviously felt the decline in family income. In a short time, he and his wife increased their savings while reducing their expenses.
But at present, the contradictions in different cities are different. Just when the second-hand housing in Zhang Qiang's city began to pick up gradually, the new housing market in many second-tier cities and even first-tier cities was even more popular than the second-hand housing market. Even some developers shortened the six-month down payment condition to 15 days, and the corresponding concessions were cancelled, but the differentiation was also obvious.
Du, a securities real estate analyst, believes that it will take some time for the market sales to recover after the implementation of the policy with reference to the loose regulation cycle from 20 14 to 20 16. It is expected that the national commercial housing sales will turn positive in August. According to the monitoring of Guo Jin Securities, on June 4th 10, the total transaction volume of commercial housing in 40 key cities was 4.07 million square meters, down 7% from the previous week and 46% from the same period of last year. Among them, first-tier cities, third-and fourth-tier cities improved significantly, while second-tier cities decreased month-on-month. The second-hand housing market, 17 key cities generally grew.
Regarding credit demand, Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, believes that it is expected that with the landing of various wide credit instruments and the improvement of the epidemic situation, the demand for physical credit will further pick up, and the credit increase in June will be further increased compared with that in May. However, the repair speed of residential housing loans is relatively slow, and it is estimated that it is still possible to reduce LPR 15BP in five years.