Recently, Japan's military defense actions have been frequent, which can be described as "military and civilian" simultaneously-"culture" includes the revision of security documents, while "military" started a joint air exercise with India on 16 just after the "Malabad" exercise with the United States, Australia and India two months ago.
The outside world noticed that this 1 1 day exercise, code-named "Weier Guardian -2023", was the first joint exercise between Japanese and Indian fighters. From a military point of view, Japan aims to understand the performance of Russian fighters through confrontation exercises and seek to be "more emboldened" in air confrontation with China and Russia in the future. From a strategic point of view, Japan intends to win over more quasi-allies and cooperate with the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy". India also has the intention to serve its strategic rise through the game between China and the United States and China and Japan.
Full coverage of land, sea and air
In recent years, Japan-India defense and security cooperation has been deepening. As far as the military exercise is concerned, it has achieved "full coverage of land, sea and air, and both sides are fighting."
Specifically, on the basis of holding several annual "JIMEX" sea exercises, the two countries started the land exercise of "Defender of the Law" with the participation of transport planes and joint aviation training in 20 18. The two sides also participated in multinational exercises such as "Malabard" and "Milan", and the latest "Malabard" exercise was staged just two months ago.
The "Weier Guardian -2023" military exercise is the first time that fighters from the two countries have been trained. This plan was formed as early as 20 19 1 1. Later, due to the continuous delay of the COVID-19 epidemic, it was pushed to three years later. Although the military exercise was "late", it did not seem to affect the enthusiasm of both sides.
It was noticed that when the Indian fighter plane arrived at the Baili Air Force Base near Tokyo, Japan, it was greeted by Japan's "Watergate Ceremony"-two fire engines sprayed water columns on both sides of the plane to form a "Watergate". Japan Air Self-Defense Force welcomes Indian guests through this high-standard courtesy.
India's lineup includes: four Su -30MKI fighters, two C- 17 transport planes, 1 Il -78 tanker, and a special mixed fleet of about 150 people. Japan dispatched four F-2 multi-role attack planes and four F- 15 fighter planes.
Su -30MKI fighter of Indian Air Force
Some analysts pointed out that the scale of the fighters dispatched by both sides reached the level of small air combat. It is reported that the Japanese Air Force will play the role of "imaginary enemy" in training and launch air confrontation with the Indian army.
The military of the two countries spoke highly of the significance of this military exercise. The Japan Air Self-Defense Force said that India will be the fifth country to hold such bilateral exercises with Japan after the United States, Australia, Britain and Germany. The Indian military predicts that the defense cooperation and strategic relationship between the two countries will reach a new level.
Diplomat magazine pointed out that in addition to increasing the frequency of annual military exercises, India and Japan have recently deepened security and political consultations. Last March, Japanese Prime Minister kishida fumio visited New Delhi to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and China. Last September, the coastguards of the two countries held the 20th high-level meeting, and the second "2+2" Foreign Ministers' Defense Ministers' Meeting of India and Japan was held in the same month. After the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, some people worried that India-Japan relations might be affected, but Kishida and Indian Prime Minister Modi "still seem to arouse each other's sense of * * *".
Japan and India have their own considerations.
Hu, director of the South Asia Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that this is the first time that Indian Air Force fighters have been deployed to Japan to train with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force. First of all, this is the result of the continuous development of India-Japan relations.
Politically, the two sides have formed a special global strategic partnership, which is a very high positioning for bilateral relations and also marks that the two countries have the same strategic interests. Militarily, the two countries have signed a package of agreements on logistics support, procurement and cross-service, and their defense relations have deepened day by day.
"Considering the high level of mutual trust between India and Japan, India and the United States have established an exercise mechanism for the armed forces. It is not surprising that India and Japan have filled the gap in such military exercises through fighter exercises and strengthened military coordination and interoperability. " Hu said:
Secondly, the exercise is also related to the interests of Japan and India in the current environment.
"Japan, in particular, wants to be a normal country, so it constantly hollows out its own peace constitution." Hu said, "It is an activist second only to the United States in assembling strategic partners and allies and establishing a United front against China."
"One sign is that the Kishida government recently revised the security documents and sought the understanding and support of all countries during its trip to Europe and the United States." Hu said, "In addition to the above G7 members and allies, Japan also hopes to win over India, a partner of South Asia, and push Japan-India relations to quasi-allies through various military exercises."
From India's point of view, Hu believes that India's approach to Japan has the intention of using the game between China and the United States and between China and Japan to serve its strategic rise. If India was still worried about this in the past, now this concern is decreasing, and the views of New Delhi and Tokyo on strategic threats are converging.
In addition, India-Japan cooperation can also be viewed from the perspective of India's desire to enhance regional and even international influence-last year, India's GDP surpassed that of the United Kingdom, and this year it took the rotating presidency of the G20 for the first time. It is also a "fragrant cake" that the United States, the West and Russia are competing to win over, and it is regarded by India as an opportunity to highlight the status of a big country.
Lian Degui, director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, believes that after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, India and other participants in the Quartet have different positions on Russia, but it seems that this has not affected Japan-India defense cooperation at present.
Lian Degui said that Japan has not stopped wooing India in recent years. First, because of the requirements of the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy"-Washington hopes that Japan will play a major role in shaping the camp against China and complete a series of tasks, including taking the lead on the issue of Taiwan Province Province, trying to reconcile with South Korea and deepening cooperation with Europe, Southeast Asia, India and other countries. Second, Japan also wants to take a historic opportunity to break through the peaceful constitution and get rid of its dependence on the United States to some extent. The United States and Japan have formed a relationship of mutual utilization.
In Lian Degui's view, Japan-India defense cooperation has been continuously promoted in recent years, which is not only related to the framework of the "quartet mechanism", but also related to the relations and interests between the two countries. Judging from the relationship between the two countries, Japan did not invade India during World War II, so there is no historical obstacle to the cooperation between the two sides. From the perspective of interest demand, as stated in the Japan-India 2+2 statement, India and Japan stand together out of "common concern" for China. In addition, India has a demand for Japanese capital and technology, and Japan regards India as an important economic and defense market.
India has a subtle attitude.
According to the analysis, the important point of this military exercise is whether Japan will be familiar with Russian-style equipment through alien aircraft confrontation training and seek the operational advantage of dealing with Sino-Russian air power in the future.
Specifically, the Su -30MKI fighter sent by India this time is in the same strain as the Su -30SM fighter currently in service in the Russian army, which helps Japan to be familiar with the performance of the Russian Su -30SM fighter that often haunts northern Japan.
In addition, a retired major general of the Indian Army revealed to the Indian media that India could have sent gusts or glorious fighters to participate, but eventually sent Su -30, because considering that "China is also using this fighter, Japan can study its ability to deal with China fighters through military exercises." However, some analysts believe that the Indian Su -30MKI and China Su -30MKK fighters are very different, and China's updated J-20, J-16 and J-10C fighters have been widely equipped.
Su -30MKI fighter of Indian Air Force
For India, first of all, Japanese F-2 fighter was developed on the basis of American F- 16 fighter. The confrontation exercise between Indian Air Force pilots and F-2 will help to deal with Pakistani Air Force F- 16 fighter in the future. Secondly, the exercise is conducive to expanding exchanges with Japan, the United States and other countries in the field of advanced military equipment and technology, and gaining military and economic support from these countries.
Another point of view is whether such military exercises will attract other members of the Quartet mechanism to participate in the future, or whether they will be held in sensitive areas in the future to send a signal against China.
Lian Degui believes that the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" of the United States aims to integrate and mobilize regional countries to form a containment and encirclement of China, so both air force and naval exercises will only move forward.
"The United States and Japan have relatively mature military cooperation mechanisms in the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea and the Taiwan Province Strait, but their control over the direction of the Indian Ocean is relatively weak. If you don't win over India, there is basically no place to stand. Controlling the region is a major strategic path to control the future of China. " Lian Degui said, "This move may push regional peace and stability in a dangerous direction, which deserves vigilance."
Hu believes that there are two trends in the future that deserve attention.
First of all, Campbell, the White House India-Pacific Affairs Coordinator, recently made it clear that India will be the focus of American diplomacy in 2023. During his recent visit to the United States, Kishida also said that Japan will further develop its relations with India and ASEAN countries and strengthen Washington's "Indo-Pacific Strategy" framework. It is conceivable that the western world, led by the United States, will invest more in wooing India.
Second, India's attitude towards the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" has changed from "at arm's length" a year or two ago to "more active". Hu said that at the economic level, India has high expectations for the "Indo-Pacific Strategy", actively joins the Indo-Pacific economic framework, participates in the "three pillars", and uses three working groups to build an elastic industrial chain at different levels. On the security level, India was hesitant about this strategy before, but now it is more obedient to the arrangement of the United States and Japan, considering China's feelings. At the diplomatic level, India regards the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" as a platform for the rise of great powers, and even openly advocates the rationality of this strategy in the international community. The subtle change in India's attitude may make it easier for the United States and the West to win over, and it will also force other small South Asian countries to face tremendous pressure to choose sides and take sides. China needs attention.
Some analysts believe that in view of the growing defense ties between Japan and India, on the one hand, China should strengthen its own military capacity building; On the other hand, since both Japan and India are China's neighbors, China should still resolve bilateral disputes through peaceful dialogue and negotiation.