Then, what impact will the new mortgage regulations have on the industry and consumers?
Expert: Commercial banks still have a strong preference for real estate credit and need to be restrained.
Why did the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission choose to put "big moves" at this time?
Ni Pengfei, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that although China's real estate financial management has achieved remarkable results and the situation of excessive capital flowing to real estate has improved significantly, the exposure of real estate loans in the banking industry is still large, and its asset quality is easily affected by the fluctuation of real estate prices, which is a potential risk point that needs close attention. Commercial banks' preference for real estate credit is still strong, which needs to be restrained by system design.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, also said that from an international perspective, the proportion of real estate loans is too high, or the proportion rises too fast in a certain period, which is not conducive to the development of the real estate market itself, but also brings risks to the financial system. At present, China's real estate long-term mechanism construction has achieved remarkable results. The balance of real estate loans (including personal housing loans) accounts for about 29% of the total loan balance, but the proportion of some banking institutions is too high, far exceeding the average level.
This Notice sets two upper limits on the proportion of real estate loans and the proportion of individual housing loans.
The so-called "proportion of real estate loans" refers to the proportion of the balance of real estate loans of banking financial institutions (excluding overseas branches) to the balance of RMB loans of the institutions.
"Individual housing loan ratio" refers to the ratio of individual housing loan balance to RMB loan balance of financial institutions. The specific formula is as follows.
In order to avoid the "one size fits all" rule, the Notice is classified and graded, and a "five-file red line" is set.
Specifically, the upper limit of real estate loans for large banks in China is 40%, and the upper limit of personal housing loans is 32.5%. The above two figures for medium-sized Chinese banks are 27.5% and 20% respectively. The above two values of small Chinese banks and non-county agricultural cooperative institutions are 22.5% and 17.5% respectively, and those of county agricultural cooperative institutions are 17.5% respectively.
In addition, in order to avoid the impact, the Notice also specifically stipulates that banks will implement centralized quota management for real estate loans from this year, and banks that exceed the quota need to adjust the quota within the specified time. Among them, if it exceeds 2 percentage points, the transition period of business adjustment is 2 years; If it exceeds 2 percentage points or more, the transition period of business adjustment is 4 years.
The new regulations have a greater structural impact on banks and housing enterprises.
Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, told Translator Jun, "The new mortgage regulations have a greater structural impact on enterprises and banks."
"From the perspective of housing enterprises, the new regulations may bring about changes in their financing structure. At present, the financing methods of housing enterprises mainly include credit, self-financing and sales return. Among the real estate development funds in 2020, credit accounts for less than114.2%, while self-raised funds and sales rebates account for a relatively large proportion. Considering the problem of credit stratification, the difficulty of loans for small and medium-sized housing enterprises may change, which may lead to accelerated turnover or financing through bonds. " Li Chao said.
From the bank's point of view, on the one hand, the limit can reduce the risk exposure of a single bank's mortgage, avoid the greater impact brought by factors such as the rising rate of non-performing loans, help prevent financial risks, and reduce the impact of real estate market fluctuations on banks; On the other hand, if banks want to increase new mortgage loans, they need to increase other loans and capital to match them, which will help optimize the bank loan structure.
Will it be affected when buying a house and applying for a loan?
Seeing the "Notice", many small partners who want to buy a house are instantly nervous. Some people worry that if the upper limit of individual housing loan balance is set, then the loans will queue up and there will be no loans.
Let's look at a watch first.
According to the data of Huatai Finance, at present, most domestic banks have not touched the upper limit. Especially for the first-class big banks, real estate loans are far from reaching the upper limit of 40%, and Bank of Communications is only 26%. If you only look at the personal mortgage part, only CCB and Postal Savings slightly exceed it.
Industry experts believe that there is no need to worry too much. The purpose of setting the upper limit of individual housing loan balance is to limit the proportion of bank real estate loans to all loans, rather than the amount or absolute value, which has little impact on the demand for individual housing loans. Most commercial banks have not reached the upper limit, so residents do not have to worry too much about the impact of applying for loans to buy a house, and the existing housing loans will not be recovered by banks in advance because of this policy.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, also said that for individual buyers, there is basically no problem, just apply for loans according to the policy process. You also need to pay attention to the concentration of loans. In fact, among the loans that verify compliance, some loans that belong to consumer loans also need to be controlled to prevent some banks from issuing mortgages in disguised form through consumer loans in violation of regulations.
Relevant personnel of a joint-stock bank in Yangzhou said that the implementation of the Notice will make the interest rate and qualification management of small and medium-sized banks on real estate loans and personal housing loans more stringent, and it will be more difficult for buyers to apply for mortgage loans in "small banks". (Text/Tour Suzhou and Hangzhou)