At the moment when the central government is "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations", the prediction of the Academy of Social Sciences is simply "adding fuel to the fire", which is really a bolt from the blue for those who just need to buy houses. Not only that, some experts are still advocating that "low housing prices are not conducive to family struggle", "only real estate can save China" and "housing prices will not fall in the next 30 years, but will only rise slowly" ...
Is that really the case? In the future, just buyers really can't see the market cooling down. Will real estate continue to rise irrationally?
one
Similarly, as a poor household at the bottom, I really understand everyone's deep expectations for real estate: I am not against the development of real estate, and I will not ignore the irreplaceable contribution of real estate to the economy in the past, but please understand the people's feelings. High housing prices shut out many people who really need to buy a house to live in. On the contrary, some speculators are besieged on all sides and make a fortune. Real estate, a livelihood industry, has long been misnamed.
We don't ask much. We never fantasize about getting something for nothing. We just want to buy a house of our own and manage our small family by trying to use a loan. Do not seek wealth, but seek a clear conscience; I don't want to leave too much wealth for my children and grandchildren, but I want to give my family a warm shelter.
However, it is such a simple little dream that hundreds of millions of people just need to look forward to it. It is difficult to achieve now, because the house price is too high and has long been separated from the income of residents. Whether it is a first-and second-tier city or a third-and fourth-tier city, it is too difficult for young people to buy a house of their own by their own labor income, and it is even more impossible for an international metropolis like Beishangguangshen.
Bai said that high housing prices ruined the love and imagination of young people. In the reality of high housing prices, they became middle-aged as soon as they graduated.
Cao, a doer, said that the strength of a country ultimately depends on the support of science and technology, and the strength of real estate is completely self-sufficient. After a long time, all the disadvantages will be revealed. High housing prices are like a "cancer", which not only destroys people's enterprising confidence, but also deprives countless families of their right to exist, even squeezing entities and reducing their international competitiveness. Imagine that a country has always been driven by real estate, and all capital talents have entered the real estate industry. However, physical manufacturing is a low-end industry, and it is all processing on behalf of others. Real research chip software and other industries have no strong points. Such a country's international status will not be truly recognized, because you lack the "weapon" to sanction others, and you are only passively beaten.
20 16 blasted the high housing prices in Shenzhen. He said, "In addition to the cost of production land, high housing prices also increase the employment cost of employees, which may seriously undermine the competitiveness of enterprises." Today, I believe more people will feel the same way.
Yes, real estate can't be held too high any more. Doing a solid job in industry and technology is the foundation of high-quality economic development in China.
two
Some unfathomable experts are still advocating that house prices will continue to rise. I really hope they can hear the real voice of the citizens. The developer's endorsement fee is really good, but they advocate the great role of rising house prices in packaging real estate, but at the expense of more people's happiness. Can they really feel at ease? Speculation and speculation have long been broken. In my opinion, some respectable experts should be despised and censored.
As we all know, I have always opposed high housing prices, hated speculation, and even opposed China's extensive development model of desperately developing real estate to stimulate the economy. I have repeatedly expounded the disadvantages and risks behind the development model of land sales financing in various places. High housing prices have side effects. It's not just a few media people talking. The party media and the central media are also beating frequently, releasing signals to the real estate that need to be changed.
The Economic Daily once issued a document saying, "Don't take the old road of relying on real estate to drive development"; The article of China News Service commented that with the transformation of China's economy, the development stage of the real estate industry has also changed accordingly, and its role has changed from "engine" to "stabilizer"; Recently, the overseas edition of People's Daily published a commentary entitled "China will not stimulate the economy by real estate speculation", which once again decided the development direction of the property market.
This morning, the Beijing News published an article entitled "Beware of the" crowding out effect "of housing price rebound on residents' consumption", clearly acknowledging that "excessive housing prices will cause many side effects." The article bluntly reveals that high housing prices make residents' debts continue to rise, which seriously affects residents' consumption expenditure in other fields and even leads to a decline in the quality of life of low-income residents. Not only that, residents' bullish housing prices are expected to form, and funds will continue to flow to the real estate market, squeezing other industries; More importantly, the article mentioned that high housing prices will also lead to rising rents. Some studies have pointed out that for every one percentage point increase in the proportion of housing loans to deposits, residents' consumption expenditure will decrease by 0.2 percentage points.
Obviously, this is not a problem of the real estate industry itself, but a major issue related to the protection of residents' living standards, the transformation and upgrading of the national economy, and the reform of the real estate market.
I have said many times in the previous article that real estate has developed rapidly in recent years, and many people have a deep love for high housing prices because of their overnight wealth. But looking around, China has not really solved the housing problem, and most people are abandoned by high housing prices. As a livelihood industry, real estate should focus on solving the housing problem of most people, rather than becoming a tool for a few rich people to make money. In the past, real estate contributed a lot to the economy, but today it has never recovered. The greater the economic dependence on real estate, the deeper this contradiction will be in the future, so it is time to completely "abandon real estate".
three
Many people are still worried about the prediction of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Let me talk about my opinion here: the market is not a simple addition and subtraction, and it is meaningless for the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to predict the ups and downs to one decimal place based on the past. The real estate market is greatly influenced by policies. Yesterday, the market was still in full swing. If a policy is implemented, everything may be completely subverted. It is also common for a hot market to enter the freezer. What's more, the central government's tone on the property market is very clear. Real estate will develop steadily in the future, and an annual growth of 7.6% is obviously not allowed.
Look at what happened in the market recently, and you may feel more at ease:
First of all, due to the overheating of the property market, ten cities were directly named in February, including Suzhou, Foshan, Dalian, Nanning and other hot cities without exception.
Secondly: the city has been on fire for some time, but the supervision of funds has been tightened. From April 1 to May 20th, there are only 50 days. Among the 223 tickets issued by local banking regulatory bureaus, 32 were related to "blood transfusion" in violation of real estate regulations, and the total amount of fines was about10.69 million yuan. Strict supervision and strict investigation of the scale of illegal funds entering the property market can be seen.
Furthermore, the CBRC issued a notice saying that a new round of rectification of financing chaos in the real estate market has begun, including cutting off financing channels such as banks and trusts or further tightening.
Not only that, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Hefei, Qingdao and other places have also reported that credit has tightened the brakes. Tightening interest rates, slow lending for new houses, slow payment by developers and poor capital circulation will definitely make developers embarrassed; Second-hand housing loans will be slower, and it will take longer for landlords to get the money, most of which just need replacement. This is an obvious "brake" signal. However, it is just the need to prepare for buying a house, and it is inevitable that interest rates will rise and be accidentally injured.
The signal of this cold water release is self-evident: the central and local governments are highly concerned about the trend of the real estate market, and will adjust and improve the corresponding measures according to the changes in land auctions and housing prices.
Professor Ye Jianping pointed out that the real estate regulation has now reached the "decisive battle period", and all departments are making heavy punches to try to curb housing prices. From the current point of view, all the measures to control housing prices have basically been used. Whether it is effective or not depends on the implementation of local governments. In the past two years, local governments may have little incentive to implement it, but this time, unlike in the past, the central government's requirements for local "main responsibility" are very clear. Combined with the cities named by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development a few days ago, if the situation remains unchanged in the later period, the nature is completely different.
Regarding the market outlook, I would like to add a few words: whether you like it or not, the prices of megacities with large population and considerable industrial advantages will still be difficult to fall in the future. The sudden change in the property market is a conclusion drawn from the perspective of investment speculation. With the deepening of future regulation, the real estate market is definitely not suitable for investment speculation, even if you are not afraid of death; After experiencing a sharp rise in housing prices in the past few years, in fact, many second-and third-tier cities have reached their peak. In the medium and long term, house prices will indeed continue to rise, but in the short term, house prices will really not rise. Releasing restrictions on purchases and loans may come one after another, but as far as the current situation is concerned, this is absolutely impossible. Everything depends on the policy and the will of the central government. Whoever instigates you to speculate in real estate will harm you.
As for self-occupation, everything is done according to your own needs. I understand that you want to buy a house while house prices are falling. Everyone has it, but this cheap price is really hard to accept. This was the case in the past and will be the case in the future. Historical experience tells me that no matter how the market changes, anyone who needs to empty six wallets to buy a house with a down payment is the most disadvantaged at any time.