Affected by the new coronavirus epidemic in 2020, various provincial and municipal government departments required real estate and construction sites to suspend the resumption of work in February. Sales offices in many cities were closed and new home sales almost came to a halt. The impact of the epidemic on real estate companies is self-evident.

China Merchants Shekou believes that the epidemic will have an impact on the company's production and operation plans, and epidemic prevention and control, future development and other work will be a tough battle. Tahoe Group believes that the severity of the epidemic will have a greater impact on the entire real estate industry, especially the company's indicators for the first quarter of 2020, which will cause certain difficulties for the company's normal operations.

Cufui Holdings believes that sales pressure will be greater in 2020. Throughout the first quarter, the scale of repayment may drop by about 40% year-on-year.

Real estate companies are increasingly affected by the epidemic, and short-term interest-bearing liabilities and sales collections are important indicators

The lack of conditions for resumption of work, the delay in resumption of work, and the seriousness of the epidemic have a negative impact on real estate companies. The adverse effects are increasing day by day. For real estate companies, sales collection performance, asset structure and short-term debt pressure are the core indicators for measuring the cash flow security of real estate companies. By looking at the short-term debt scale of major real estate development companies such as Evergrande, Sunac, Jinke, and Tahoe Group, we can initially judge their stress situation. At present, the proportion of short-term debt of mainstream real estate companies is about 20-40%, and the proportion of current assets is about 77-90%.

The industry as a whole will maintain normal debt repayment capabilities. However, companies with greater short-term debt maturity pressure, such as China Evergrande, CIFI Holdings and other companies where the ratio of short-term interest-bearing liabilities to sales receipts is close to or exceeding 100, will not be able to guarantee future cash flow when normal sales cannot be guaranteed. The requirements will be relatively high, and the corresponding challenges will be greater.

——More data sources and analyzes come from the "China Real Estate Industry Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.