(a) As a quality asset, the housing business now bears more potential risks.
In recent ten years, China's economy has entered a rising period, and the real estate industry, as a pillar industry of the country, has developed rapidly, driving up the housing prices. Personal housing business, which accounts for the largest proportion of consumer credit business, is repeating such a cycle: every time China implements real estate control policies, consumers take a wait-and-see attitude, real estate transactions decrease, and personal housing loan business shrinks accordingly. After the regulatory policy was digested by the market, the market entered a stable period, and personal housing loans once again entered an expansion period. Therefore, commercial banks bear more policy risks.
(2) Bank consumer credit business is the source of funds used by borrowers for investment.
A considerable number of investment customers have taken a fancy to the characteristics of flexible repayment and low interest rate in bank consumer credit business. They apply for personal comprehensive consumer loans from commercial banks by providing false transaction contracts and false payee information, and use the credit funds of commercial banks to invest in capital markets and real estate markets. Once the investment fails, the real estate price will fall, and the credit fund recovery of commercial banks will lose its guarantee.
(C) The indirect loan business model enables real estate intermediaries to transfer business risks to commercial banks.
The division of labor in the real estate market makes commercial banks in China rely more and more on intermediaries. Most banks are only responsible for the approval of consumer credit business, and other links are handled by intermediaries. At present, due to the lack of supervision legislation on real estate intermediaries in China, it is impossible to restrain the behavior of real estate intermediaries in many ways, which makes it easy for real estate intermediaries to transfer their business risks to commercial banks. Some real estate agents deliberately conceal important information, publish false advertisements to attract customers and harm the interests of the parties; Some participate in real estate speculation, distorting market prices; Some violate the national tax system, assist both parties to sign yin-yang contracts and help customers evade taxes. All kinds of behaviors may damage the reputation and interests of commercial banks, and even seriously affect the recovery of loans.
(D) Frequent false transactions.
In the downturn of the property market, "fake mortgage" is a common means for developers to obtain bank funds. Now house prices are rising all over the country, and "fake mortgage loan" has a double meaning. One way is for the borrower to apply for a loan from an insider and repay the loan every month. Its essence is that borrowers want to use bank funds to invest in real estate speculation in order to win low-interest loans. The other way is to apply for a loan from the bank through the joint fraud of the borrower and the intermediary company or mortgage company, through the form of fictitious buyers, and by deception or forgery, so that the bank suffers financial losses.
Second, the analysis of the causes of consumer credit risk in China's commercial banks
Institutional factors
1. Incomplete laws and regulations
The development of personal consumption credit business depends on the establishment of personal credit system in China. With a good legal environment, consumer credit business can develop healthily. However, there are few provisions on personal credit in China's current legal system, and there are no specific punishment measures for personal dishonesty, especially the problem of difficult realization of mortgage has been difficult to solve. In terms of supporting policies, at present, China's personal bankruptcy system, social security system and other systems are imperfect, which makes it difficult to collect personal credit information and hides serious legal and moral risks.
2. Lack of mature and perfect personal credit reporting institutions and personal credit evaluation system.
In China, people lack credit concept, personal credit information disclosure is not enough, and credit information resources are not shared. It leads to information asymmetry between banks and consumer lenders, which leads to malicious fraud and behavior of consumers. Consumer credit provided by commercial banks is "high threshold" and "complicated procedures", which increases the risk of consumer credit. In short, the lack of personal credit system is the root cause of consumer credit risk.
3. Consumer credit risk transfer mechanism is not perfect
(1) The development of consumer credit commercial insurance system lags behind.
In order to ensure the safety of banks and consumers, foreign countries have established corresponding insurance systems. For example, France's housing loan insurance model, Italy and Spain use group insurance model to provide guarantees for housing loans, the United States requires borrowers to buy full life insurance, driving liability insurance and auto insurance for newly purchased cars in auto loans, and some countries also require consumers to apply for fire insurance as collateral. However, the development of consumer credit commercial insurance in China is relatively slow at present.
(2) The development of consumer credit securitization is not mature enough
As an important aspect of asset securitization, consumer credit securitization plays an important role in solving the liquidity risk of consumer credit, realizing a virtuous cycle of mortgage funds and optimizing consumer credit assets. On the one hand, after the securitization of housing mortgage loans, commercial banks can convert long-term mortgage claims into securities by packaging and listing, and correspondingly move the securitized loan assets off the balance sheet, thus reasonably reducing the total risk assets of banks, reducing the asset scale and improving the capital adequacy ratio; On the other hand, through the securitization operation of housing mortgage loans, mortgage banks convert their mortgage loans into securities and trade them in the market, thus dispersing the loan risks originally borne exclusively by banks to multiple investors, thus realizing the risk dispersion.
Bank reasons
1. The bank loan design is not reasonable enough.
Some loan types have serious defects themselves, which leads to the natural existence of loan risks. For example, "zero down payment" personal housing loans and "zero down payment" car loans may have the risk of providing false proof of unit income before lending; Using cars as collateral is also very risky. At present, most car loans are secured by cars. This method is simple and direct, but compared with real estate and other real estate, the depreciation and price reduction of cars are faster, and the realization of used cars is relatively difficult.
2. There are irregularities in bank operation.
For the sake of market share and profit, illegal operation is the main reason for the formation of asset risk from within the bank. Some staff members have low professional or ideological quality, poor awareness of risk control, lax pre-lending audit and untimely post-lending supervision. The approval procedure before the loan is issued is a mere formality. After the loan is issued, the poor monitoring and collection by the bank leads to the borrower's default or default.
(3) The reasons of consumers
Consumers' reasons are subjective and arbitrary. The risk caused by uncertainty belongs to the category of credit risk.
1. Uncertainty of consumer behavior
At present, there is information asymmetry between borrowers and lenders, which leads to the situation that consumers maliciously cheat or default on loans. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the borrower's behavior.
2. Uncertainty of consumers' repayment ability
Factors such as the reliability of consumers' income, the stability of work, the change of family structure and unexpected events may change adversely during the loan period, and the change of any one of these factors will affect consumers' repayment ability, which shows that consumers' repayment ability is very uncertain. If the consumer's repayment ability fluctuates enough to repay the loan payable, the loss will be passed on to the lender. Therefore, it is one of the key links of consumer credit risk control to correctly analyze consumers' repayment ability and take measures to make up for their lack of repayment ability.
Third, countermeasures and suggestions to strengthen the risk control of consumer credit in China's commercial banks
In view of the causes of the above-mentioned consumer credit risks, formulate reasonable policies and suggestions to control the consumer credit risks, and assist the government and society to prevent and resolve the consumer credit risks by improving the institutional environment, improve the quality of consumer credit, and minimize losses.
1. Create an external environment conducive to consumer credit risk control.
Perfect laws and regulations are a powerful guarantee for effectively managing personal credit risk and controlling consumer credit risk management and punishment system. At present, China's legislation on consumer credit is not perfect, and the lack of many supporting laws and regulations makes a large number of creditor's rights unable to be effectively guaranteed. The government should take controlling the legislative risk of consumer credit as an urgent task. We should formulate a comprehensive consumer credit law as soon as possible, standardize the process and system of related issues, so as to guide China's commercial banks to carry out consumer credit business smoothly.
2. Establish a consumer credit guarantee system.
Guarantee is a socialized risk transfer mechanism. Guarantee is divided into material guarantee and human guarantee. The guarantee of things means that consumers use their real estate, movable property and tangible assets as collateral and pledge to guarantee the repayment of debts. If they can't fulfill their obligations at maturity, the bank can exercise its right to collateral to meet their requirements. PICC is an independent third party as a guarantor, and makes a commitment in the form of a legal agreement. When the consumer fails to repay the debt on time, the guarantor will assume its debt repayment obligation.
3. Standardize the consumer credit process of commercial banks.
To standardize the credit process, we must control it from the source and implement it layer by layer. In order to establish and improve the loan management responsibility system, this paper was originally published in the 49 1 issue, 05/issue and 20 13 issue of the Global Market Information Herald sponsored by the Literature Information Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences-it should be noted that the source review and loan inspection system are separated. The process of personal consumption credit risk management includes product design and influence, pre-loan approval, post-loan management and loan settlement management. Starting with tracking and monitoring, we should establish a set of early warning mechanism for consumer credit risk, strengthen regular or irregular tracking and monitoring after lending, and effectively avoid consumer credit risk in the process.