Recently, a reporter from the National Business Daily investigated personal housing loans in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and found that the quotas of many banks were tightened, and even some stock banks in Shanghai indicated that the lending time was uncertain.
Some banks in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have suspended mortgage loans.
Most banks have tight quotas.
65438+1October 24th, Weibo, the great V, said, "Guangzhou New Deal, in 2020, the proportion of individual housing loans in all loans should not exceed the city average." At the same time, big V also revealed that in this case, all banks should take measures to "suspend accepting new loan applications".
According to the 265438+20th Century Business Herald, China Merchants Bank Shenzhen Branch, Guangzhou Branch and its provincial branches suspended mortgage lending a week ago, and the front-end business level was "taking orders moderately".
Everbright has suspended its mortgage in Shenzhen, and Guangfa Bank said it would not take orders. At present, the approval and lending of other banks it cooperates with are basically normal. Judging from the performance of the four major mortgage banks, the lending period is about one month, which is difficult to guarantee at present.
The reporter of National Business Daily asked the staff of a branch of China Merchants Bank in Shanghai for verification. The staff said that after the new "two red lines" of mortgage came out, the bank where he worked was very nervous about the amount of mortgage, and now the loan is very slow, and there is no way to guarantee the timeliness. "Our quota here is quite small now. If the customer decides to do it now, we are not sure when we can lend money, and the reply can only be uncertain. "
Similarly, a credit officer of a branch of Industrial Bank in Shanghai said: "At present, there is no loan quota for the first suite of individuals, so it is not possible to lend money now, at least until June. If it is a second suite, it may be faster, but now the quota is also very tight, and it is not certain when to lend money. " This is not a case. The loan officer told the reporter that all branches of the bank in Shanghai are basically the same.
The reporter learned from a branch of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank that the bank controls the mortgage amount every month, and it takes more than one month from acceptance to lending. "This is the minimum time. Almost the same as before. We are better. We have been controlling (quotas). Now some banks (lending) take three or four months. "
Compared with Shanghai's indefinite lending time, Shenzhen has given a clear timeline. The National Business Daily interviewed the second-hand housing loan business of four banks. In addition to the staff of the Agricultural Bank of China saying that the specific lending time is hard to say, the time given by ICBC, Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank is March.
"If it is handled now, it is expected to be released in March." The staff of China Merchants Bank added that it is uncertain afterwards, because this matter will change at any time.
The staff of China Merchants Bank did not disclose too much the reasons for the tight quota. The staff of ICBC said it was because there was no quota at the end of the month plus the Chinese New Year.
"What will it be like after a month? It usually takes about a month from your submission of information, approval to lending. " The reporter further asked if he could lend money at the end of February. The staff member said that it is estimated that it will wait until the beginning of March, and there is generally no money at the end of the month.
In fact, when reporters visited major banks at the end of last year, many banks said that the quota was tight at the end of the year. This statement has also been confirmed by the staff of Bank of Communications. According to the staff of Bank of Communications, from June 5438 to 10 last year, the personal housing loan business of some banks has not been extended.
"We don't lend so fast now." The staff of the Bank of Communications said. When the reporter asked if it was possible to lend money in March, the staff told the reporter: "The fastest may be March. This year's situation is particularly grim. On the whole, the central bank will reduce the amount of mortgage loans. "
According to the 2 1 Century Business Herald, some media reported that Guangzhou provided supervision window guidance to banks in the region, explicitly requiring that the monthly mortgage amount of 1 should not be higher than the average monthly mortgage amount in the fourth quarter of last year.
A person from a small and medium-sized bank in Shanghai said that at present, no similar regulatory requirements have been received, depending on the policies of various bank branches, in other words, "one line, one policy". At present, their bank still has a quota, but the contraction of mortgage business in the future is definitely a general trend.
The new rules of the "two red lines" of the central bank began to land.
How will individual buyers be affected?
On June 5438+February 3, 20201day, the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Centralized Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions, which divided banks into five grades and set up "two red lines" indicators with their own characteristics. The first red line is the proportion of real estate loans, and the second red line is the proportion of personal housing loans, that is, the balance of personal housing loans accounts for the proportion of all loans of a bank.
This means that the scale of incremental control can be expected whether personal mortgage loans or housing loans are fully restricted.
According to the management requirements of real estate loan concentration, the upper limits of real estate loans and personal housing loans are divided into five grades: 40% and 32.5% for large Chinese banks, 27.5% and 20% for medium Chinese banks, 22.5% for small Chinese banks, 17.5% for non-county rural cooperative institutions and 17.5% for county rural cooperative institutions.
From the end of June, 5438 to February, 2020, if the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans of banking financial institutions exceeds the management requirements by less than 2 percentage points, the transition period of business adjustment is 2 years from the date of implementation of the above notice; If it exceeds 2 percentage points or more, the transition period of business adjustment is 4 years from the date of implementation of the above notice.
According to the statistics of Guo Sheng Securities:
Among the first banks, the personal housing loans of ICBC, CCB, BOC and Postal Savings Bank accounted for 33.7 1%, 36.73%, 39. 19% and 33.64% respectively, which exceeded the upper limit by 32.5%. The total real estate loans of CCB and BOC accounted for 465,438+0.72% and 50.065,438+0% respectively, exceeding the upper limit by 40%.
Among the second-tier banks, the total personal housing loans of China Merchants Bank, China CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank accounted for 25.49%, 20.83% and 26.93% respectively, exceeding the upper limit by 20%; The real estate loans of China Merchants Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial Bank accounted for 34.25%, 28.06%, 28.73% and 35.30% respectively, exceeding the upper limit by 27.5%.
Among the third-tier banks, Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, Bank of Zhengzhou Bank, Qingdao Bank and Qingnong Bank all stepped on the line to varying degrees.
What does this mean for individual property buyers? The most direct impact is that the scale of mortgage loans issued by some banks will be limited. If the proportion of personal loans issued by banks before is relatively high, even exceeding the red line set by the central bank this time, then banks must gradually adjust to the prescribed scope during the transition period. Banks whose mortgage ratio is close to the red line must also control the growth rate of mortgage in the future. Therefore, for individual property buyers, if banks tighten the scale of lending, it will obviously increase the difficulty of applying for a mortgage.
By the third quarter of 2020, the balance of real estate loans will be 48.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 28.8% of the balance of RMB loans. Structurally, real estate loans mainly include real estate development loans, personal housing loans and affordable housing development loans, among which personal housing loans account for the highest proportion, reaching 68.8%, accounting for 65,438+09.8% of the loan balance.
Banks are afraid of "spillover effect"
Legal auction houses are also restricted.
In an interview with 2 1 Century Business Herald, the head office of East China City Commercial Bank said that after the total amount of mortgage loans is limited, the overflow loan increment may affect the pricing of other loans. In other words, if the money previously used for mortgage loans is not allowed for mortgage loans, it must be transferred to other loans, such as consumer loans and corporate loans, which further increases the supply of non-housing related loans. This influence has two aspects. First, there is no need to worry about the amount of corporate loans to enterprises this year, and it is very abundant after less mortgage; Second, the price of loans from enterprises and consumers may be lowered, and banks will suffer losses in profits.
The attitude of banks that are no longer keen on mortgage loans may change the situation that new houses and school districts in Shanghai's property market continue to be hot. The "New Deal for Shanghai's property market" just released last week is a major impact.
China, a brokerage firm, previously reported that in 2020, the Shanghai property market will see a rise in volume and price, and the transaction volume will rise all the way, especially in the "warm winter" market of Shanghai property market in June 5438+065438+ 10 and February 65438+February, and hot plates and hot properties will be snapped up by the market. According to the statistics of Tongce Real Estate Consulting, in 2020, there were more than 30 new buildings opened in Shanghai in 65438+February, and the recognition rate of more than 20 projects exceeded 100%, and the number of 13 projects exceeded 1000 groups. A few months ago, one of the most popular projects in Shanghai's new housing market, 13 people robbed a suite, and the capital verification of the first suite was 7 million, and the capital verification of the second suite was even130 thousand.
On June 265438+1October 2 1 day, Shanghai suddenly issued a new policy on property market regulation, and the Shanghai Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Management Committee and other eight departments jointly issued the Opinions on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in this Municipality, which came into effect on October 22, 65438. There are two main concerns in the New Deal. The first is to limit the phenomenon of fake divorce. For couples who buy houses within three years after divorce, the number of houses they own is calculated according to the total number of two people before marriage. The other is to adjust the recognition standard of VAT from two years to five years.
In fact, the above-mentioned "New Deal" also mentioned restrictions on credit. The Opinions clearly pointed out that it is necessary to prevent funds from illegally flowing into the property market, strengthen the prudent management of individual housing loans, guide commercial banks to strictly control the pace and growth rate of individual housing loans, and strictly implement differentiated housing credit policies. Strengthen the verification of the source of down payment funds and the debt-to-income ratio of buyers, and prevent funds such as credit loans, consumer loans and operating loans from flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations.
It is worth noting that in order to cooperate with the New Deal, the "legal auction house" has also been restricted!
According to the 265438+20th Century Business Herald, some people who borrowed from banks said that since1October 22nd, as a supporting measure of the "New Deal of Shanghai Property Market", auction houses have been removed one after another, and those still under auction have also changed the requirements of bidders.
Inquire about auction house information related to public auction. Com, we will find that there will be a red reminder on it: "Bidders who participate in bidding should confirm in advance that they are qualified to buy houses in this city, and if necessary, they can call the real estate transaction service hotline of this city to specifically consult the purchase restriction policy", and remind: "After the auction is confirmed, if the buyer is not qualified to buy houses in this city, he will bear legal consequences such as regretting the auction."
According to the current housing purchase policy in Shanghai, individuals in Shanghai are limited to one set and families are limited to two sets. Foreign hukou needs to be married and pay social security for five years before it is eligible to buy a house.
Previously, because French auction houses were not limited to purchase in Shanghai, it has become a "sharp weapon" for many foreigners to settle in Shanghai, and even caused the price of French auction houses to be higher than that of second-hand houses in the same region. This phenomenon may gradually disappear after the New Deal.
202 1 what will happen to the real estate financial policy?
When answering a reporter's question, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that the establishment of a centralized management system for real estate loans will help market participants to form stable policy expectations and promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market.
In recent years, the regulation of real estate has been overweight, from real estate developers to financial institutions have been included in the scope of supervision. So, what changes will be made to the real estate financial policy in 20021year?
65438+ 10/5, the State Council held a press conference on financial statistics in 2020. At the meeting, Zou Lan, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said that in recent years, the People's Bank of China has adhered to the positioning of "houses are used for living, not for speculation", and comprehensively implemented the long-term real estate mechanism around the goals of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations, and strengthened real estate financial management.
First, the financial supervision of real estate has been strengthened. Lead the financial sector to strengthen the statistical monitoring of all kinds of funds flowing into real estate, guide the reasonable growth of real estate loans of commercial banks, and promote more financial resources to flow to key areas and weak links such as manufacturing, small and micro enterprises. Last year, the growth rate of real estate loans was lower than that of various loans for the first time in eight years, and the proportion of new real estate loans in various loans dropped from 44.8% in 20 16 to 28% last year.
The second is to implement the prudent management system of real estate finance. First, implement a long-term mechanism, implement differentiated housing credit policies due to the city's policies. Secondly, according to the direction of standardization and transparency, the fund monitoring and financing management rules of key real estate enterprises have been formed. The third is to establish and improve the macro-prudential management system of real estate finance.
The third is to improve the financial policy of housing leasing. In accordance with the direction of "rental and purchase at the same time", accelerate the study of financial support for housing rental market policy.
Zou Lan said that in the next step, the central bank will conscientiously implement the deployment of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference, adhere to the positioning of "housing and not speculating", rent and purchase at the same time, and maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies due to the city's policies. We will steadily implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, increase financial support for the development of the housing rental market, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.