This change in China's economy is closely related to a term called "new normal".
New normal, new features
In essence, it is to enter the stage of high-efficiency, low-cost and sustainable medium and high-speed growth.
What is the "new normal"? Literally, "new" means "different from the old"; "Normality" is a state that often happens. The new normal is a different and relatively stable state. This is a trend and irreversible development state, which means that China's economy has entered a new stage different from the high-speed growth period in the past 30 years.
Most experts believe that the new normal has four main characteristics:
-Medium and high speed.
"From the speed point of view, the shift in economic growth, from high-speed growth of around 10% to medium-high-speed growth of 7%-8%, is the most basic feature of the new normal." Wang Yiming, deputy secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
Looking around the world, when a country or region has experienced a period of rapid growth, there will be a shift in growth rate: from 1950 to 1972, the average annual growth rate of Japanese GDP is 9.7%, and from 1973 to 1990, it will drop to 4.26%. During1961-1996, the average annual GDP growth rate of Korea was 8.02%, while during1997-2012, it was only 4.07%. During the period of 1952- 1994, the GDP of Taiwan Province Province increased by 8.62% annually, and decreased to 4. 15% during the period of 1995-20 13.
"In many countries, the economic growth rate has directly switched from the' high-speed gear' of more than 8% to the' medium-speed gear' of about 4%, while China's economy is expected to run at the' medium-high-speed gear' of 7%-8% for some time," said Fan Jianping, chief economist of the State Information Center. This is because China is a big country with unbalanced development, and various economic units can continue to exert their strength, thus generating huge and lasting development energy. "For example, if the service industry rises in the eastern region, the withdrawn manufacturing industry will not disappear, but will be transferred to the western region to promote the rapid economic growth in the western region."
-Excellent structure.
Structurally, under the new normal, the economic structure has undergone comprehensive and profound changes, and it has been continuously optimized and upgraded.
In terms of industrial structure, the tertiary industry has gradually become the main body of industry.
In 20 13, the added value of the tertiary industry (service industry) accounted for 46. 1% of GDP, surpassing the secondary industry for the first time; In the first half of this year, this proportion climbed to 46.6%. "The service industry in developed countries such as the United States has accounted for more than 80% of GDP. Under the new normal, the increase in the proportion of China's service industry will be a long-term trend. " Wang Yiming said.
In terms of demand structure, consumer demand has gradually become the main demand.
In 20 12 years, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth exceeded investment for the first time since 2006. From the data of the first half of this year, the contribution rate of final consumption to GDP growth reached 54.4%, investment was 48.5%, and export was negative 2.9%.
In terms of urban-rural regional structure, the regional gap between urban and rural areas will gradually narrow.
At the end of 20 1 1, the proportion of urban population in China reached 5 1.27%, surpassing the rural population for the first time. With the implementation of the national new urbanization strategy, the urbanization speed will continue to accelerate, and the urban-rural dual structure will be gradually broken. The regional gap will gradually narrow.
In the income distribution structure, the proportion of residents' income has increased, and more people have shared the fruits of reform and development.
Over the past 30 years since the reform and opening up, China's GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 9.8%, and the national fiscal revenue has increased at an average annual rate of 14.6%, while the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the per capita net income of rural residents have only increased at an average annual rate of 7.4% and 7.5% respectively. This situation will change under the new normal. According to the report released by Credit Suisse 20 1 1, the average annual growth rate of wage income in China will reach 19% in the next five years, exceeding the GDP growth rate.
In these structural changes, the advanced productive forces are constantly generated and expanded, and the backward productive forces are constantly shrinking and withdrawing, which not only gives birth to a series of new growth points, but also makes some industries pay a heavy price such as overcapacity.
New power.
From a dynamic point of view, under the new normal, China's economy will shift from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven.
From 1998 to 2008, the average annual growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size was as high as 35.6%, but it dropped to 12.2% in 20 13 years, and only 5.8% in June and May this year. "The persistent difficulties in the manufacturing industry show that with the rising prices of labor, resources and land, the economic development mode driven by low factor costs in the past is unsustainable, and the driving force for development must be transformed into scientific and technological innovation," said Zhao Jinping, director of the Foreign Economic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center.
-Many challenges.
From the risk point of view, the new normal is facing new challenges, and some uncertain risks are obvious.
The risk of real estate market has become the focus of social attention. In the first half of this year, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide decreased by 6% year-on-year, and sales decreased by 6.7% year-on-year. By the end of July, more than half of the 46 cities with restricted purchases had relaxed their purchase restrictions. Compared with the fiery situation of "higher and higher housing prices" in the past, the current property market is indeed a bit cold.
Since the beginning of this year, China's economic operation has continued to maintain a reasonable range, but potential risks such as property market risk, local debt risk and financial risk have gradually surfaced. These risk factors are interrelated, and sometimes the outbreak of a point may also cause a chain reaction.
"Combining these characteristics, it is not difficult to see that the current new normal of China's economy is essentially that economic development has bid farewell to the traditional extensive high-speed growth stage in the past and entered a high-efficiency, low-cost and sustainable medium-high-speed growth stage." Wang Yiming said.
New normal, new factor
China's economy "can't do" and "can't stand" the rapid growth as before.
When it comes to the causes of the new normal, we have to mention an economic concept-potential growth rate.
Potential growth rate is the economic growth rate that a country (or region) can achieve in a certain period of time under the conditions of optimal allocation and full utilization of various resources. The potential growth rate is an ideal growth rate, and the GDP growth rate often fluctuates reasonably around the potential growth rate.
In the future, the decline of China's potential growth rate will become an inevitable trend.
This is because the potential growth rate is mainly determined by factors such as labor input, capital input and total factor productivity. From the perspective of labor input, in 20 12 years, the working-age population of China 15-59 years old declined absolutely for the first time. Experts predict that from 20 10 to 2020, the working-age population will decrease by more than 29 million, which means that the growth of labor input in the whole society will gradually slow down. From the perspective of capital investment, the other side of the decrease of working-age population is the increase of dependent population and the increase of dependent expenditure. In the past, China had a light population burden, so it could maintain a high savings rate, which led to high investment. In the future, with the decline of savings rate, the growth of investable capital will also slow down. The total factor productivity, which represents efficiency, is also difficult to increase significantly.
It is an indisputable fact that the potential growth rate is declining. What's more, when an economy grows up, its total amount and base will become larger. Every percentage point of GDP growth, its absolute value is much larger than in the past, and it is impossible to maintain the long-term high-speed growth of "perpetual motion machine". Last year, China's GDP growth rate was only 7.7%, but the GDP increase was equivalent to the total GDP of 1994, which also exceeded the total GDP of Turkey ranked as 17 in the world.
Explain the potential growth rate and you will understand why the new normal was born-
From the speed point of view, due to the decrease of potential growth rate and the increase of pressure on resources and environment, China's economy "can't" and "can't stand" the high-speed growth in the past, and it is bound to shift gears and fall back.
From the structural point of view, with the decline in the supply of production factors such as capital and land and the strengthening of resource and environmental constraints, the proportion of primary and secondary industries that consume more capital, land and other factors, have higher energy consumption and greater pollution will decrease, and the service industry that relies less on capital, land and other factors and consumes less will enter the fast lane of development, thus bringing about the optimization of industrial structure.
Due to the rising cost of manufacturing industries such as labor and resources, the export competitiveness will be weakened, and the investment capacity will also be reduced due to the decrease of working-age population and savings rate. With the improvement of residents' income level and the improvement of social security, consumer demand will continue to grow rapidly, thus bringing about the optimization of demand structure.
"When land and labor are scarce in the eastern region, related industries will be transferred to the central and western regions to achieve coordinated regional development and optimize the regional structure," Fan Jianping said. The acceleration of urbanization and the urbanization of a large number of agricultural transfer population are conducive to narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas and optimizing the urban-rural structure.
With the decrease of labor supply, workers are becoming more and more "scarce goods" in the job market, and human resources are more important in the economic structure dominated by service industry. These factors will promote the growth of labor wages and the optimization of income distribution structure.
From the power point of view, the low price of production factors in the past has become an important driving force for the rapid operation of China, a "world factory". Today, the prices of these factors have undergone a qualitative change, forcing China's economy to turn to innovation.
From the perspective of risk, the risk is not the problem of the economy itself, but because with the slowdown of economic growth, many risks that were originally covered up during the period of rapid growth began to be exposed.
For example, the downward pressure on the economy will weaken people's investment confidence, and the bubbles and risks accumulated in the past will be highlighted; Under the downward expectation of the property market, real estate enterprises suspended the purchase of new land, resulting in insufficient local financial resources with land finance as an important source, and local debt risks appeared; When the real estate market is depressed, the bank's related loans will bury hidden dangers of financial risks.
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