In August, new credit continued its seasonal upward trend, which was basically in line with expectations. In August, RMB loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 69.4 billion yuan. On the residents' side, consumption and real estate sales continued to improve, driving the residents' departments to continue to increase leverage. In August, new loans of residents reached 654.38+0877 billion yuan. Real estate sales still maintain strong resilience, and the scale of residential loans in the future still has certain support. From the perspective of enterprises, the demand for medium and long-term financing continues to increase, and the contraction of bill financing continues to drag down the overall corporate financing performance. In August, the new loans of enterprises increased by 71600 million yuan less than the same period of last year. Among them, the scale of bill financing decreased by 4,654.38+002 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium and long-term loans increased by 296.7 billion yuan year-on-year.

In August, the growth rate of social financing scale was 13.3%, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. Social welfare in that month increased by 3.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.39 trillion yuan year-on-year. The outstanding performance of social financing data is mainly reflected in three points: first, the issuance of government bonds accelerated in August, and the net financing in that month was 1.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 872.9 billion yuan; Second, non-standard financing rebounded beyond market expectations. In August, non-standard financing increased by 654.38+0725 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year. On the one hand, the decrease of structural deposit pressure slows down the expansion of banks' balance sheets, and the financing demand shifts to off-balance sheets. In August, the undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 654.38+0284 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year. On the other hand, the real estate financing policy has become stricter, but it has not yet landed. Housing enterprises may choose to release financing demand in advance, resulting in an increase of 34.2 billion yuan in trust loans. Third, physical credit financing is still strong. Rmb loans in the real economy increased by 1 156 billion yuan year-on-year, slightly higher than the seasonal performance.

The scissors difference between M2 and M 1 continues to narrow. The growth rate of M 1 is 1. 1 percentage point to 8.0% higher than that at the end of last month, which may reflect that the sales of housing enterprises continue to pick up, and the activity of production and marketing of enterprises has increased, indicating that the real economy will continue to repair. Compared with the end of last month, the growth rate of M2 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 65,438+00.4%, which was mainly related to the short-term liquidity withdrawal caused by the massive issuance of government bonds. With the release of fiscal expenditure in September, the growth rate of M2 is expected to recover to some extent. However, considering the gradual slowdown of credit growth in the second half of the year, it will be difficult for M2 to return to the high growth mode in the second quarter.

Looking back on September-65438+February, the marginal pressure of national debt issuance slowed down, but it was still at a high level in the same period. It is estimated that the scale of subsequent social financing will increase at a higher rate before 10. According to estimates, the net financing scale of national debt from September to June was 2.68 trillion, much higher than that of 1. 1 trillion in the same period last year. As the credit increment in the second half of the year is weaker than that in the first half, the top of the credit growth rate in the year is basically determined in July, but the downward trend is expected to be moderate. The medium and long-term new financing needs of residents and enterprises remain high, and efforts to repair financial support entities are still in progress. If we only consider credit (assuming the goal of 20 trillion yuan is maintained) and national debt, the growth rate of social financing scale is expected to reach the highest point 13.5% in June of 438+00 this year, and then fall back to 13.2%. The uncertainty of future social financing growth mainly lies in the compression range of non-standard financing. Judging from the rebound of non-standard financing in August, the market may generally overestimate the pace of tightening the real estate financing policy.