The energy varies greatly.
Nowadays, the widely accepted model that can explain the American subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis should be Minsky moment, or even long term.
A stable economy will also emerge, the economy will continue to grow, people will invest more boldly and ignore risks, and hot money will flood into the property market.
City.
In addition, modern financial innovation quickly magnifies risks, and inherent instability plays an important role, adding leverage to investment assets more quickly.
In the bubble, the household debt ratio soared, once exceeding 97% on the eve of the economic crisis.
The core gameplay is the transmission of risks, and the upper layer is responsible for the middle layer.
Debt takeover, the intermediate level will pass the debt to the next level to take more debt takeover, as long as the assets keep rising, the poor will repay the loan as scheduled, and the intermediate link will
Some people make money in name only.
But investors simply don't know that the premise of its income is that the poor can repay on time, and the cash flow created by the poor is not borne by anyone.
After bearing the debt and interest, the house price can't rise, and the return on assets can't make up for the interest, which leads to a wider range of subprime loans.
Around, all the previous gains will be wiped out, and the non-performing assets after default will be thrown to the bank for disposal, and the assets will be insolvent and bankrupt. ?
First, Minsky's judgment condition at this moment is the Ponzi credit stage, and the cash flow of the latecomers can't afford the high debt cost, which corresponds to the macro.
The data is the leverage ratio of residents, so on the eve of the risk of modern financial system, there is a more obvious feature, that is, the leverage ratio of residents.
Ponzi credit collapsed when latecomers couldn't bear it or didn't want to play, such as Japanese houses in the 1990s.
Residents' debt in the land price bubble is rising, and residents' debt is rising rapidly in the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. One is the bursting of the bubble, and the other is.
It is the spontaneous clearing of the market, which also verifies the truth that the market will play a role if the policy is not decent. ?
The biggest difference in the United States in the past decade is that it learned the Japanese model after the asset bubble burst and needed to maintain an expansionary monetary policy for a long time.
Policy, someone must add leverage, but not on residents, but on them, indicating that the leverage ratio of residents is relatively stable, and the leverage ratio quickly exceeds 1 10%. On the eve of the subprime mortgage crisis, the leverage ratio of residents was around 97%, and now it is basically below 80%. Even under the impact, there are more debts to the market for various rescue funds, such as exempting student loans and even giving them directly to residents.
Money. ?
Second, residents' leverage and anti-pressure ability are important judgment conditions for Minsky at all times. As long as leverage and pressure are not added to residents, it will be implemented.
Loose monetary policy can also be played for a long time, refer to the example of Japan. America may drag on longer than it did when it was corrupt.
For a long time, although there will be a certain cost, such as the stock market will continue to fall, it also verifies the previous point, if it is very high.
Leverage to stimulate the economy, then the increase is better than the increase of residents.
After raising interest rates several times, the wage growth rate in the United States dropped sharply. Since last autumn, the wage growth rate in the United States has dropped from 6%
To 4.4%, which is a relatively large decline in history. The mortgage interest rate has also changed dramatically, and this figure.
It has soared from about 3% last year to about 6.7%, and the sudden rise in borrowing costs has greatly changed the pattern of the housing market. mortgage
Loans decreased by over 15% year-on-year. The refinancing market has actually been almost closed, which has not only cut off the important credit of millions of families.
The source also indicates that there will be a wave of layoffs in the mortgage industry. ?
3. The price of new houses is falling because the application for mortgage loan for house purchase has dropped by more than 20% compared with a year ago.
Universal. However, the cost of living has not decreased. Due to the high cost of housing, the rent in the housing market is still rising.
Mainly driven by insufficient supply. In the market with insufficient supply, demanders can buy houses without affecting the landlord's rent increase.
Considering the impact of European and American rental prices on inflation, we can foresee the further reduction of housing supply and realize price and communication by raising interest rates.
Short-term control of inflation will inevitably be offset by insufficient supply again.
In other words, it is difficult for wage growth to plummet and the unemployment rate to start rising.
How many powerful shells contributed to high inflation. This series of interlocking problems all show that the United States is short.
During this period, it is likely that there will be a phenomenon of "high inflation rate and high unemployment rate", which completely violates the standard Phillips curve model. ask
How much the unemployment rate will be exchanged for the real decline and effective control of the inflation rate is a headache.
Curbing inflation and ensuring employment have always been the two major goals of the US central bank, but unfortunately, these two goals often run counter to each other. this year
The employment data in the United States is particularly good, but inflation has also gone up.
Lehman crisis will not, but the hard landing of the economy is a high probability. In essence, this incident affects high debt, and mainly through external high.
Debt-ridden economy, so you see Sri Lanka died this year.
This time, the leverage of the United States is mainly in the body, and mainly in the Federal Reserve. The American people not only have no debt, but also have a debt ratio.
It is still the lowest in 30 years, which means that although people borrow money to buy a house, the debt ratio of most people is not high. In 2007, mostly.
Several people, including investment banks, are fully leveraged, and only a few people have no leverage, so most of the areas where those people buy houses have reached new heights.
The next embarrassment is all European countries, because the countries with the highest foreign debts in the world are mainly European countries except the United States.
In addition, some countries that rely on foreign debt to develop their economies are likely to suffer losses. We have to see what they have, but because they are big now.
Most of them are not linked to the exchange rate, so most countries can absorb the impact by depreciating. Europe is embarrassed, and this year's cash flow.
Equally damaging, depreciation will aggravate inflation, so there may be some debt crisis in Europe.
So, isn't there something wrong with the British pension these days? BlackRock also came out yesterday to reduce its debt-driven investment strategy. Now this
This is the next biggest risk, but because of this high probability, central banks will try to save it. This can't be exploded, it may become.
Just like Lehman Brothers, it will be necessary to save it, because it can ultimately recover the cost of saving and even make money.
It is not difficult to make a decision to save, and it is almost risk-free and high-yield. If you give up, the risk is huge and the loss is huge.