According to the prospectus, the total number of new shares to be issued by Ant Group in A shares and H shares is not less than 30 billion shares.
The listing of ants adopts the green shoe mechanism, that is, 15% of the shares can be over-allocated, but this part of the shares will remain in the hands of the issuer as a weight to stabilize the price fluctuation in the primary market. Green shoes are a very mature mechanism abroad. Up to now, there are five A-share companies adopting the green shoe mechanism: Postal Savings Bank, Agricultural Bank, China Everbright Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Resources Microelectronics, all of which are very large-scale listed companies.
"The green shoe mechanism can obviously enhance investors' purchasing confidence. A foreign investment banker told e-commerce online.
Although the issue price per share and the target valuation have not yet been determined, according to the data of Ant C's financing for 20 18 years, its valuation has reached150 billion US dollars, so the market generally predicts that it will reach 200 billion US dollars (about 1.4 trillion RMB). In this way, ants can directly compete with ICBC (market value10.7 trillion RMB) and China Ping An (market value10.4 trillion RMB) in A-share financial listed companies.
This nearly 500-page prospectus also disclosed a number of core data for the first time:
The annual active users of Alipay have exceeded 1 billion, and the monthly active users are 7 1 1 billion;
From June to June this year, the revenue was 72.528 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%, equivalent to 400 million yuan a day;
The net profit in the first half of the year reached 265.438+92.3 million yuan;
Technology income exceeds 60%, followed by payment and innovative services;
In the first half of the year, the income from services provided by ants to Ali Group was 4.47 billion yuan, accounting for only 6. 16% of the total income of ants.
In the past year, about 500 million users used the flower borrowing service, of which the average balance of borrowing flowers was only 2000 yuan.
Before dismantling this prospectus, what we need to know is, what does the ant group rely on to operate, and what supports the trillion market value of ants?
How do elephant ants work? One picture is the whole picture.
The all-round life platform composed of digital payment, digital finance and digital life is the panorama of Alipay.
For Alipay, the three modules * * * together form a strong synergy and a virtuous circle. Digital payment is an important entrance and bridge for Alipay to open online and offline traffic. Digital life services such as living payment and ant planting trees are important sectors to enhance activity and increase stickiness, while innovative and diversified digital financial services and digital life services form a joint force and become the core sector of income.
Corresponding to the scale is sustained and steady growth. 20 17, 20 18, 20 19,1-in June 2020, the company achieved operating income of 65.396 billion yuan, 85.722 billion yuan,1206/kloc-respectively.
The prospectus shows three parts of its income: digital payment and merchant services, digital financial technology platform and innovative business.
Digital payment service can be said to be the pioneering work of ants, and its income is mainly based on a certain proportion of the transaction scale, charging transaction service fees to merchants and trading platforms. In 20 19, the business income was 5190.5 billion yuan, accounting for 43% of the income. However, since the first half of this year, the proportion of digital payment and merchant service income has dropped to 36%.
Most of the revenue has become a digital financial technology platform. According to the data, in 20 19, the revenue scale of this business was 67.784 billion yuan, accounting for about 56.2%. In the first half of 2020, the business income reached 45.972 billion yuan, accounting for 63.4%.
Innovative businesses include blockchain and database services, but from the data point of view, the proportion of revenue is almost negligible.
From the picture, 20 18 has become the inflection point of ant income, and the data financial platform has begun to replace payment and become the "leading" business.
It is worth mentioning that Alibaba is not only an important backer for the growth of ants, but also the biggest customer of ants. But from the data, Ali contributed about 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 6% of the total income of ants.
The data of Ali's fiscal year 2020 (April 1 year to March 3 1 fiscal year) shows that its GMV (platform transaction volume) reached 7 trillion in the year, while the data of Ant's current1February has reached 1 18 trillion, which means "from
The digital financial technology platform can be further disassembled into three parts: micro-loan technology represented by Bai Hua, wealth management technology represented by Yu 'ebao and Tian Hong Fund, and insurance technology represented by good medical insurance and national insurance.
Microfinance, wealth management and insurance services have become the troika that drives ants forward.
From the specific composition, nearly 40% of the credit business is cash cow, which seems to conform to the basic logic of all financial enterprises. But the difference is that the loans facilitated by ants are mainly issued independently by financial institution partners.
As of June 30, 2020, among the balance of creditor's rights contributed by the company's platform, the proportion of actual lending or securitization by financial institution partners totaled about 98%.
In June this year, Ant Financial changed its name from Ant Financial Services Company to Ant Technology Company, which also triggered a discussion about whether the ant's surname was Jin or Ke. The landing of the prospectus shows the positioning of ant's technology company.
In the prospectus, Ant defines itself as an online consumer credit and Wechat business credit technical service provider. Ant Group charges a certain percentage of technical service fees according to the scale of credit business, premium income or asset management promoted on the platform.
This is typical platform logic. Like Taobao, it does not provide products by itself, but improves the transaction and service efficiency of merchants through technology, smoothes the threshold of financial services, and truly achieves universal benefits.
It is not easy for financial institutions to settle down and do financial services. Large and medium-sized banks have strong financial strength and professional risk control technology, but there are not enough channels to reach a large number of small and micro enterprises and small shops; Small and medium-sized commercial banks are in a dilemma because of their limited ability to completely control credit risk.
Contacting small and micro enterprises and helping to provide technical support, ants play the role of a bridge.
Online merchant bank is the most important partner for Ant Financial to provide micro-business with micro-credit technology platform services. As the main promoter of online merchants, ants hold 30% of the shares, and online merchant banks have also become an important window for ants' technical capabilities.
Even pancake fruit vendors on the roadside can apply for loans through mobile phones as long as they have Alipay payment codes, which can be considered as "code merchants" in a broad sense. The online merchant bank will lend money according to the payment transaction record, and the whole process takes only 3 minutes without any manual intervention. Based on the leading risk control ability, the NPL ratio of these loans has been controlled at around 1% so far.
From the perspective of expenditure, technology research and development is the main expenditure of ants. 20 19 investment 106 billion, which is equivalent to half of the research and development expenditure of 20 19 130 science and technology innovation board new shares (according to China Newsweek). One of the main investments of the funds to be raised by Ant IPO is also technology. According to the prospectus, 40% of the funds raised by A shares and H shares will be invested in innovation and technology research and development, and the other three parts will contribute to upgrading the digital economy, strengthening global cooperation, and helping global sustainable development and supplementing liquidity.
Statistics show that by the end of June 2020, among the more than 65,438+6,000 employees of Ant, the proportion of technical R&D personnel has exceeded 64%; In the board of directors of Ant Group, 1/3 are all from technical backgrounds, namely (CEO of Ant Group), (CTO of Alibaba) and Ni (CTO of Ant Group).
Ant redefines the value of "national level": Alipay APP has more than 654.38 billion users, more than 80 million merchants and more than 2,000 cooperative financial institutions, making it the largest life service/business APP in the world.
In fact, since the birth of Alipay in 2004, ants have been playing an innovator in the financial field. 20 1 1, QR code payment online, 20 13, Yu 'ebao online, opening the era of online financial management. 20 14 went online in Bai Hua, and 20 16 went online in ANT FOREST.
In March of this year, Alipay APP was upgraded to an open platform for digital life. Closely connected with Ali's local life, it means that local life services such as take-away and grocery shopping can be completed in Alipay. The traffic of the entire Alipay homepage platform will be fully open to the outside world, and services will be recommended through intelligent recommendation of information flow to improve the distribution efficiency of merchant services.
Sword refers to the strategic positioning of local life, which brings more imagination to Alipay. The core part of local life service is to provide high-frequency demand and enhance user stickiness. At the same time, local life will become an important opportunity for Alipay to expand the sinking market and open up the incremental market.
At present, there are more than 80 million businesses serving ants, and it can be predicted that this number will rise sharply in the future. Hu Xiaoming, CEO of Ant Group, once said that 50% of China's 50 trillion offline services will be digitized in the next five years, and the 30 trillion market is a brand-new growth space for Alipay Ant Financial.
The future of ants lies in a large number of unmet financial needs in new markets.
The data shows that the scale of China consumer credit market is expected to increase from 65,438+03 trillion yuan in 2065,438+09 to 24 trillion yuan in 2025. But by the end of 20 19, 75% of China people aged 18 did not have a credit card. In 20 19, the balance of consumer credit in China accounted for 14% of cash and deposits, while that in the United States was 33%.
The importance of small and micro operators to China's economy is self-evident. In 20 19, the contribution rate of small and micro enterprises to GDP in China reached 60%, but the credit balance of small and micro operators only accounted for 32% of the total loan balance of enterprises.
These small and micro operators are still not fully served by financial institutions. The credit balance of small and micro enterprise operators with a single amount of less than 500,000 yuan in China is expected to increase from 6 trillion yuan in 20 19 to 26 trillion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.2%.
According to the data disclosed in the prospectus, in the first half of this year, the growth rates of consumer loan business, wealth management business and insurance business were 59.5%, 56.25% and 47.26% respectively.
There is still huge market space behind the rapid growth.
According to the analysis of Aowei Consulting, the scale of individual investable assets in China is expected to increase from 160 trillion yuan in 2065,438+09 to 287 trillion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.3%. Including life insurance, health insurance and property insurance, it is estimated that China's premium scale will increase from 4.3 trillion yuan in 20 19 to 8.6 trillion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.4%.
However, in the prospectus, the risk points that will be faced in the future are also mentioned. In the 54-page risk warning, ants listed in detail the challenges that may be faced in development:
Macro situation represented by epidemic situation and international relations;
Development trends of industries related to business prospects such as microfinance and local life;
Supervision related to banking, insurance and other industrial policies;
The complex equity relationship brings about the relationship of potential conflicts of interest.
Ants have found the main channel of "science and technology", but the risks hidden under these categories are also reefs that ants must always be vigilant in the development process.