Minsheng Securities Research Report believes that the background of this round of regulation is the marginal relaxation of policies and the rapid recovery of the real estate market under the influence of last year's epidemic. Therefore, the regulatory measures are to make up for policy loopholes, curb speculation, and continue to exert strength on the supply side. It is worth noting that in this round of regulation, in addition to conventional regulation, financial supervision and other measures have become the focus, and the trend of "all-round" overweight is becoming more and more obvious.
Strictly check the inflow of operating loan funds into the property market.
At the end of 65438+February last year, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission announced the establishment of a centralized management system for banking financial institutions, which divided the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans into five grades. The establishment of this system has opened the curtain of financial supervision in the real estate market.
In June this year, 5438+ 10, the regulatory authorities imposed strict restrictions on the proportion of new personal housing loans by banks in Guangzhou. Under the influence of this new requirement, the speed of mortgage approval has obviously slowed down, which has slowed down market transactions. However, the focus of financial supervision is to prevent operating loan funds from illegally flowing into the property market.
Li, the chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that through "bridge financing-buying a house in full-taking commercial loans-paying off bridge financing", arbitrage can be carried out many times, and the value-added part can be cashed out through real estate appreciation, and the cycle is repeated. This weakens the top-level structure of "housing and not speculation" and also forms a "crowding out effect" on the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that since operating loans are suitable for investment in house purchase, and mainly based on improved and high-end housing, this round of property market boom obviously started from the middle and high-end market.
Previously, many domestic regulatory authorities have issued a document demanding strict control of commercial loans and consumer loans flowing into the property market. There are different opinions on whether it will really be done, but in the end, Guangdong has made a real move.
On March 16, Guangdong Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau disclosed that banking institutions under its jurisdiction (excluding Shenzhen) had completed the self-inspection of personal business loans of 450 1 banking outlets, and investigated personal business loans of 567.8 billion yuan and personal consumption loans of 21650,000 yuan, and found that the amount of problem loans suspected of illegally flowing into the real estate market was 277 million yuan * * 922. Banking institutions have taken rectification measures such as terminating the quota, settling in full at one time, and repaying in advance by installments.
Zhang Dawei believes that the recent crackdown on the use of new real estate licenses and the registration of new enterprises to obtain operating loans in a short period of time is very strong, which can restrain the irrational and unhealthy development of the entire property market to a certain extent.
Control measures are more comprehensive
In addition to financial supervision and cracking down on illegal commercial loans entering the property market, restrictions on purchases in Guangdong, Shenzhen and Dongguan are also increasing.
In order to cope with the behavior of grabbing houses and holding houses for real estate speculation caused by the upside-down price of a second-hand house, Shenzhen released the reference price release mechanism for second-hand housing transactions in February. RealData pointed out in a report that after the release of the transaction reference price, the average daily listing volume and average price of new houses in Shenzhen remained at the level of 1 month. Under the premise of inactive transaction and uncertain market, both buyers and sellers hold a wait-and-see attitude, and fewer customers buy improved houses.
In addition, a few days ago, Shenzhen quietly released a document to interpret the new regulations of 654381October 23rd on strictly examining the qualifications for purchasing houses and severely cracking down on violations, pointing out that fraud and other cases will be jointly punished, and offenders will be transferred to the public security organs for handling.
Dongguan, which is close to Shenzhen, stepped up regulation in the early morning of February 27th, requiring new residents to purchase the first suite at the same time, so as to meet the requirements of having settled for half a year and continuously paying social security for half a year. The social security for the second suite is changed from two years to three years, and the down payment for the second suite is not less than 50% when the first set is not settled. In addition, if you buy a house within two years of divorce, you need to register for two years to buy a house in Dongguan in the name of an enterprise according to the number of family houses before divorce.
If it is obvious that the property market in Shenzhen and Guangzhou was overheated before, then the upgrade of Dongguan's purchase restriction made the outside world notice the property market before this place.
According to a statistical data of Yiju Research Institute, from 65,438+in1October last year to 65,438+in1October this year, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Dongguan has gradually increased from 15 179 yuan/square meter to 17308 yuan/square meter. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that the restriction on enterprises in Dongguan will help to crack down on all kinds of real estate speculation in the name of enterprises, and various new regulations will help stabilize the real estate market in Dongguan.
Subtly affect the property market.
In this year's government work reports of the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress, it is once again emphasized that we should adhere to the positioning of "housing and not speculating" and stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations. Looking at the regulatory measures in the past three months, we will find that the tightening of the current round of property market policies, especially the tightening of financial supervision, is aimed at real estate speculation and derivative illegal acts, and various regulatory policies are also centered on "housing and not speculating".
In addition to financial supervision and purchase restriction measures, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have also been included in the "two centralized" pilot cities for land transfer. At present, the specific implementation rules of the two places have not been disclosed. Yan Yuejin believes that the "two concentrations" make the land supply intensive, and actually form the "Expo" of the land market. For housing enterprises, there are relatively more opportunities to acquire land, which helps to control low prices. Lin Zhaoyuan, Chairman and Executive Director of Yuexiu Property, also said at the 2020 performance conference that centralized land supply is beneficial to the company as a whole.
"Long-term mechanisms for land and finance are being established," Li said. Despite the twists and turns in the middle, the policy is firm and wise, which has a subtle influence on the property market. This is "stable land price, stable house price and stable expectation". It is expected that the national real estate investment will remain flexible this year, and the tight credit environment may lead to a more rational release of housing demand, and the sales area is expected to decline slightly.