First, America is not stupid. There are many ways to make money. With the comprehensive national strength of the United States and the status of the world's hegemonic hooligan, there is absolutely no need to print money in such a hurry. Its financial, military, scientific and technological, and public opinion hegemony can shake the earth with just one move. For example, the world financial crisis in 2008 was induced by the subprime mortgage crisis of two American banks. The lever was fun and accidentally lost its balance. Americans have broken the glue and let people all over the world cure it. If tycoons want to make money by selling arms, American politicians will create chaos and hot spots around the world to help them place orders. If they really can't, they will start a war. He has been doing this for decades. Besides, using the monopoly of American technology, the global trade war can also make money, which Trump did. The taste of hedonic hegemony, American renovation.
Second, excessive money will harm others and yourself. Excessive currency is a double-edged sword, which can not only confuse the world economy, but also lead to inflation, soaring prices, public dissatisfaction and social unrest in the United States. The most serious consequence is that everyone abandons the dollar, and the United States will definitely fall from its hegemonic position.
Third, hegemony, step by step As the world's largest consumer, the United States has been using the global hard circulation of financial dollars to obtain the world's wool. Output and consumption are asymmetric, and the dollar is hard to enjoy and expensive to sell. Usually, the favorite trick is to cook frogs in warm water-slowly. After all, the black boss also has to face and maintain the credibility of his own people. During the epidemic last year alone, it was 5 trillion before and after several times. This is called that the rich in America get sick and the poor in the world pay the bill. Although other countries are dissatisfied and dare to speak out, they can still bear it and will not tear their faces. With the support of powerful technology and aircraft carrier, the dollar will enjoy good luck tomorrow, and you will be surprised if you don't pay back the money.
It is estimated that the American government wants to do the same, but they don't have the courage, otherwise they would have paid off the 28 trillion debt.
If the United States really wants to do this, it means that the United States has become a second-rate country in the world.
In fact, we can also think about this problem from another angle. If the United States can print dollars to pay its debts at will, why not simply print dollars for its own use? Isn't this simpler and more direct?
Since the United States chose to pay back the money slowly, instead of paying off $28 trillion in one lump sum by printing money, there must be a reason.
Many people in China share this concern. As the second largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds (holding 1.06 trillion US dollars), the United States will solve the trillion US dollars owed to China by printing money, and we in China will lend the hard-earned 996 US dollars to Americans. As a result, the United States paid back the money as soon as the printing press was opened. Are we too lacking?
Actually, there is no need to worry. In the US government's $28 trillion debt, the Federal Reserve, the US Social Security Fund, some banks and retail investors hold more than 60%, while foreign countries only hold 40% of the US debt. In this way, China's holdings of more than 654.38 trillion US dollars are not too much.
If the United States really wants to print $28 trillion and pay off all its debts directly, it will suffer the most. Printing money abroad is foreign inflation, printing money at home, and a huge amount of money is directly circulated at home, which can't dilute inflation in a short time. Most of the victims are domestic investors in the United States, and the United States will certainly not do such stupid things.
Moreover, the debt of the United States is mostly medium-and long-term national debt with 10 years or more, and the annual interest expenditure is about 700 billion US dollars. Is it worthwhile for people to rush to print money and pay back the money?
In fact, the essence of American debt is to print money and pay it back, which is nothing more than the difference between printing 28 trillion yuan a year and paying it back slowly in 20 years.
However, printing 28 trillion US dollars in a short time will definitely lead to a sharp depreciation of the US dollar. From the perspective of trading rules, creditors really have no choice but to pay back the money with the US government's printing machine in the United States, but the United States is so martial and will be strongly opposed by all countries in the world.
The most serious result is that the whole world opposes the dollar's status as a world currency. If the dollar loses its status as a world currency, it will undoubtedly be a major blow to the core interests of the United States. The dollar is a long-term meal ticket for the United States all over the world. Will the United States abolish this kind of meal ticket?
The most crucial point is, once the dollar loses its status as a world currency, who is most likely to replace it? China is certainly the last thing the United States wants to see.
It can be said that to ask which country in the world has the greatest determination to defend the government's credit, it is undoubtedly the United States, because other countries can still get assistance when their credit goes bankrupt, and the bankruptcy of the United States means losing long-term free meal tickets, which is a serious loss of the country's core interests.
The dollar has been sucking blood for more than half a century, but everyone has chosen to endure it silently, because the dollar is still competent in playing the role of the world currency. Although the United States often carries out quantitative easing, the annual depreciation of the US dollar is only 2%, which is generally stable.
I feel that the United States is caught in an infinite cycle of debt. The first thing the two presidents did when they came to power was to give money to the whole people. It was not Biden who came to power, but $2,000 per capita. However, the US fiscal deficit has exceeded $3 trillion. The American government can only continue to issue bonds to make up the deficit, and when it can't afford the money, it will continue to issue bonds and never stop.
The huge debt of the United States is not only as simple as paying off debts, but also related to the world currency status of the US dollar. Although China holds more than 1 trillion US dollars in US debt, it may not be a bad thing for China if the United States really can't pay back the money one day. Like the sudden death of your sworn enemy. What does it matter if you buy some wreaths and spend money?
How to say it! Hmm. How interesting
If the United States prints a lot of dollars, it will be used to repay debt interest.
The dollar accounts for 60% of the world's finance, that is, most of the currencies, that is, it has been diluted by the world's financial sea. In fact, 28 trillion US dollars is not particularly large, but there are Mexican countries that use US dollars as their national currencies, but many of them buy US Treasury bonds. China, Japan and China are roughly 1 trillion dollars, and Japan is almost so much.
It is said that there are many taxes in the United States, which is also the expenditure of the American government. One is to promise the American people how many benefits I will give you when I run for president, and the other is to give low-interest loans to other countries, even for nothing. This is where the Soviet Union collapsed.
Now think about whether the United States is pulling the wool of the world, mainly the wool of creditors.
; In 2012, China and Japan tried to establish a mechanism for RMB and yen to get rid of US dollars, but those two people in Japan, one committed suicide and the other died unjustly, failed.
So there is another way to get rid of the dollar, throw away US Treasury bonds and buy European debt, Russian debt and Japanese debt. Anyway, I just don't play with dollars and let America die.
It is out of the question.
The U.S. government has no right to issue dollars, and only the Federal Reserve, an independent institution, can issue dollars. When the US government is financially tight, it will borrow money from the Federal Reserve to form dollars. The Federal Reserve is the creditor and the government is the debtor. How can creditors print money for debtors? The logic is wrong. When someone lends you money, will you use your own money to pay off the debt owed to you?
Can the Federal Reserve print money for the government to repay debts owed to other countries?
Neither can you.
The US government and the Federal Reserve are two independent departments, and the Federal Reserve has no obligation to pay back money for others. Moreover, there is only one source of debt in the United States, that is, from the Federal Reserve, the government borrows money, the Federal Reserve issues bonds, or buys it itself, or other countries buy it. And there is a special bond market, just like stock trading, which can increase or decrease its holdings at any time.
Theoretically, if all countries sell US debt, the Fed will become the ultimate buyer, which is the essence of US debt. The reality is that American debt is the best asset in the world, and all kinds of funds are being robbed. Every time the United States issues bonds, it is basically seconds.
What are the consequences? There are two: the collapse of the credibility of the dollar; Federal reserves were snapped up.
The credibility of the dollar collapsed: printing money to pay back the money means that everyone took a bunch of colorful papers, and that's all! What else can the dollar do? Since it is useless, may I ask: where is the credibility of the US dollar? Since the credibility is gone, won't the authority of dollar-controlled goods be damaged? Especially between countries, interests come first. With such an irresponsible dollar, we still have to hold the pricing power of commodities. Would you agree? Since we have lost the pricing power of commodities, where is the hegemony of the dollar? Therefore, as long as the United States dares to print money and pay back the money, the dollar will definitely lose its circulation position in the world market. Even if war breaks out, countries around the world will not use the US dollar as the main currency.
The gold of the Federal Reserve has been sold out: because the dollar has become irresponsible, it has lost its position as the main currency in circulation in the world. Excuse me: Why are you still holding a pile of colorful papers? Why not buy back American gold? Do we have to wait until the dollar appreciates? In addition, it is necessary to bring back the gold deposited in the Federal Reserve. These seem to be legal transactions, right? Even if the United States is fully armed, it maintains the status of the only superpower in the world, and it is a rogue-don't sell it or pay it back! Then absolutely cut off the external complementarity of the United States! Without complementarity, the United States can only wait and wither slowly!
The villagers can only think of these two consequences.
The United States and the Federal Reserve will not be so stupid. If $28 trillion is printed crazily to repay the debt, the global settlement system of the US dollar, which took several generations of American elites' efforts, will collapse in an instant, and the US dollar will depreciate on a large scale, which will have a great impact on the US economy. The United States will never recover and completely lose the title of the world's number one power.
Of course, in reality, the United States will never do this. This is undoubtedly digging its own grave and there is no need to do so. First of all, as of 202 1 and 1, the national debt of the United States has exceeded $27 trillion, but the US federal government, local governments and domestic citizens hold as much as 70% of the US debt.
The proportion of US Treasury bonds held by other overseas countries or financial institutions is only about 29%. Coupled with the $65,438 +0.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan announced by Biden after he took office, including $30 trillion, the scale of foreign investment is only $9 trillion. Why can't we print an extra $28 trillion?
Moreover, the US Treasury bonds due before the end of 20021are only 7.7 trillion US dollars, and the pattern of printing new money to repay old debts can continue for many years. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell can wait for the next Federal Reserve Chairman to take over this mess. Therefore, it is not necessary or necessary to repay all debts in a short period of time, and the Federal Reserve and US national interests will not allow the US government to do so.
The strategic goal of the United States is to ensure the stability of the exchange rate conversion of the US dollar, and it will not make fun of the US dollar, nor will it print 28 trillion yuan at a time to pay off debts. The United States has many countries in the world, such as Europe, NATO, Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, South Korea, India and Vietnam. They also insist on the dollar. The dollar will struggle in the world for some time, and whether it can be as strong as Obama said 100 years depends on their fate. [Laugh and cry] [Laugh and cry] [Laugh and cry]
If the United States prints another $28 trillion, the world will not change much, but to be clear, the United States does not owe anyone money. The United States issues government bonds with interest as bait, and you are still willing to buy them! The US government sells national debt as a commodity. If China people regard our national debt as money owed by the United States, it is wrong. I am by no means speaking for the United States. I hate American hegemonic behavior in the world! But hate turns to hate, and facts are facts. There is no doubt that if our US Treasury bonds are not sold, more than one trillion US Treasury bonds will go up in smoke. But if you continue to hold more than 1 trillion US Treasury bonds, our holdings will double in ten or fifteen years, so holding US Treasury bonds can be said to be a money-making machine. If it is not good, it will become a temptation trap. If the United States prints 2.8 billion dollars to recover the United States, the world dollar exchange rate will depreciate a little. By then, the United States will ease the pressure of interest on many debts, and we will lose a little chance to make money, that's all.
There may be the following consequences:
1. The depreciation of the US dollar is out of control and the value anchor is lost. This result will directly lead to the collapse of world trade, just like China before liberation. Today, a bag of rice is 1 10,000 francs, and tomorrow, a bag of1100,000 francs. Countries will abandon the US dollar crazily and buy various items, such as toilet paper.
2. Prices in the United States soared, the world was in chaos, civilians were looted to the point where they were worthless, people from all walks of life robbed wildly, people with red necks took to the streets with guns, and civil war broke out.
These are superficial reactions inside and outside the United States. How will America avoid these consequences?
1. provoke wars in all parts of the Middle East, Eastern Europe, East Asia, South Asia and Africa, and force the capitals of these places to take over from the United States for security.
2. Find new anchors to replace the original petrodollars, such as carbon emissions under the pretext of saving global warming, restrain the late-developing countries, and sell new energy technologies at a good price to become a reservoir of excess dollars.
3. Go into battle in person, find a suitable target while the military strength is not declining, and make an example for others so that countries will not be dissatisfied with the epic global inflation.
Above, there is a necessary condition that a few big bosses will not stop the United States, China, Russia and Europe. It's probably World War III.
At present, the debt scale of the United States has reached about 28 trillion US dollars. Therefore, the US President Biden's $65,438 +0.9 trillion aid plan launched this year was opposed by the US and the party, clearly indicating that the plan lacked pertinence and insufficient subsidies for civilians.
The debt scale of the United States has exceeded its GDP, and the debt bubble may burst at any time. First of all, it is clear that it is impossible for the United States to pay its debts by printing more money, and the dollars printed by the United States need to be absorbed by itself. The annual GDP of the United States is about $23 trillion, while the United States printed an extra $5 trillion last year, which means that the annual GDP of the United States is actually similar to that of China. It's just that the Federal Reserve started printing money and issued too many dollars to put on the market.
Most of the surplus money and debt in the United States have been absorbed by the Federal Reserve itself. Of course, countries that buy US Treasury bonds will also absorb a lot. Japan, Britain and China are the countries that buy the most US Treasury bonds, and China began to sell US Treasury bonds last year. The epidemic situation in the United States is not well controlled. Excessive issuance of US dollars to maintain the economy will lead to losses for China, so China naturally chooses to sell US Treasury bonds.
The dollar is an international currency, and printing too much currency in the United States will lead to a decline in the credit of the dollar. In addition, printing more money in the United States will also lead to serious domestic inflation. Generally speaking, the Federal Reserve should keep the domestic inflation rate in the United States at around 2%. Once it deviates from this inflation rate, the American economy is likely to suffer a huge impact.
Although the COVID-19 epidemic is raging in the United States, for the bottom people, the United States will not have an impact on the entire dollar monetary system. In other words, COVID-19 needs to prevent and control it, and the United States needs to use vaccines to prevent and control it, so it is absolutely impossible to give money to the people at the bottom.
In fact, this time, the United States' subsidies to the bottom people are not too much. As far as the world is concerned, people in Canada have the highest welfare. During the epidemic, Canada gave many subsidies to the people. However, these subsidies will be deducted from people's wages in the future, which means that they will be used as taxes. In fact, this practice in Canada is more reasonable. In essence, no white-haired people send black-haired people, just to let ordinary people spend their money in the future.
The US Senate and House of Representatives failed to pass Biden's new aid plan. With its strong economic strength, the United States has chosen to spend too much money, which has led to inflation all over the world. Prices in some emerging economies have risen, mainly due to the serious epidemic situation in most emerging economies. When the United States oversubscribes the currency, these economies can only choose the oversubscribed currency in order to avoid the impact of oversubscribed dollars. For example, the devaluation of the Indian currency is serious, and the Russian economy is greatly affected.
If the United States continues to overspend its currency, it will reap a bumper harvest in the global financial market and increase the gap between the rich and the poor. The core problem is that the United States plundered global capital in this way in the past, but it also led to the division of American domestic society. Every time the United States adopts this tactic, it will do great harm to itself and cannot solve the contradictions within its own country.
Now that the United States is in debt of 28 trillion yuan, Biden also wants to use financial means to stabilize the economy. However, * * * and the party didn't give him this opportunity, so Biden can only use scientific and accurate methods to prevent and control the epidemic to stabilize the economy and do his job in a down-to-earth manner, instead of tinkering like Trump.
Epidemic prevention and control work is a double-edged sword for Biden; If the epidemic is controlled too quickly, the populist crisis will rise again. In fact, * * * and the party's actions are correct. If the United States exceeds $65,438 +0.9 trillion, the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States will become wider, and the social contradictions in the United States will never be resolved and may be further intensified. In fact, * * * and the party also hope that Biden can solve the problem quickly. Trump has lost. If Biden can solve the epidemic problem in a short time, the situation in the United States will be completely changed. But once the epidemic is solved, the gap between the rich and the poor will become the main social contradiction in the United States.
In another year, American populist crisis and racist thoughts will resurface, and American conservatives will rise. Therefore, it may not be a good thing for Biden to solve the COVID-19 epidemic quickly. Most Americans only care about practical interests. Once the COVID-19 epidemic is solved in a short time, American conservatives are likely to regain power and new nationalism may rise. Therefore, Biden can neither deal with the COVID-19 epidemic too quickly nor do nothing. If Biden solved the COVID-19 epidemic within two years, the situation might be better.
Of course, if Biden continues to fail to solve the COVID-19 epidemic, then he is also a loser; Obama once said, don't underestimate Biden's ability to screw everything up.