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How much can the house price in Qingzhou, Shandong fall?
: Other remarks of Qingzhou real estate industry

First, I just quit my job in Jinan a few days ago. After I came back, my family told me that the house had gone up again, which made me very helpless. When I was talking with my family about buying a house, I heard my dad say that the houses built now are basically not very good. My father used to work in construction, but now he is retired and idle at home, so I still believe what he said about buying a house. My father nagged me that the price in Qingzhou is getting higher every day and the houses are built in general. Then I looked at the floor plans of several communities. It's not that I despise those real estate developers. I have been doing decoration design for almost five years. These lousy apartments were not used two years ago. The residential area built in Jinan last year can't find the same or similar apartment. In addition, there are two kinds of houses: buying a house, new houses by stages and existing houses. Qingzhou now basically sells auction houses in Jinan, and the price of auction houses is half that of existing houses, but Jinan. The auction house price there is also around 2000-2500. Generally, only people who really don't have much money at home buy it. Compared with existing houses, auction houses have obvious shortcomings. First of all, in terms of housing quality, did you know what the house was like before you saw it? Is there any quality problem? Secondly, what about the space of the house? What is the height of the story? Is it really comfortable to live in? More importantly, if it is not a resettlement house, can the real estate developer guarantee to deliver the house within the promised time? I really don't understand that many Qingzhou people buy houses first, no matter how they build them later. Do you want to show off your money? Or wait until the future appreciation to get rich? What if I buy a house and find that the actual house is not that good? Although such cases are rare, who can guarantee that there are no such cases? In fact, you are also responsible for the rapid rise in housing prices in Qingzhou. Finally, it's not that I can't afford a house. After five years of design, I also got a lot of kickbacks for my private work, and the money was enough to buy a house and a car. It's just that Qingzhou's way of buying a house is too abnormal. So I can't help complaining here. I hope someone will think of those who have little money or have borrowed money from the bank to buy a house and become house slaves when they have bought several houses.

Second, the Provincial Bureau of Statistics released the trend of housing prices in the whole province in the first half of this year. It is reported that in the first half of the year, the average selling price of newly-built houses in the province was 2,252.5 yuan per square meter, including 1477.9 yuan for affordable housing, 22 18.6 yuan for ordinary housing and 4,069.3 yuan for high-grade housing. Second-hand house price 1726.5 yuan/square meter. Experts predict that in the second half of the year, the price increase of low-priced commodities in our province will continue to fall, while the price of high-end housing will remain firm and the price of second-hand housing will continue to rise. Among 17 cities in the province, four cities, including Jinan, Qingdao, Yantai and Weihai, have higher housing prices, and the average selling price of newly-built houses is above 3,000 yuan/m2, among which Qingdao is the highest, with 6,288.2 yuan/m2, followed by Yantai, Jinan, 3596.7 yuan and Weihai, with 3,594 yuan1m2. There are 6 cities with the price of 2000-3000 yuan, which are Rizhao (283 1.9 yuan), Dongying (2699.9 yuan), Dezhou (2235.4 yuan), Tai 'an (21/8.9 yuan) and Weifang (2000). The prices of other seven cities, Jining, Laiwu, Linyi, Zaozhuang, Binzhou, Liaocheng and Heze, are all below 2000 yuan.

Third, resettlement houses cannot be bought or sold! If you want to sell, you can only buy it at a reduced price, and you can only transfer it after five years. You have to pay a lot of transaction fees, business tax and deed tax. Generally speaking, it seems that the price is cheaper than the market price, but tax will be paid in five years.

Fourth, before analyzing the property market, we might as well analyze the car market for reference. You may remember the price of Santana at 1997? 15. 1 10,000 vehicles, and now it has dropped to 70,000 vehicles. Why? When Beijing Hyundai first went public, it was also an iron mouth. Kouga refused to reduce the price, but also vowed that if the price was reduced, it would make up for the price difference loss for consumers. What will happen? Why can't car dealers keep the bottom line? It is the invisible hand of supply and demand at work. To investigate the price trend of the property market, we must first investigate the market capacity of Qingzhou property market. In other words, how many buildings are built in Qingzhou, a county-level city, is a balance between supply and demand. If supply exceeds demand, there is still room for real estate prices to rise. If supply exceeds demand, price reduction is inevitable. So what is the market capacity of Qingzhou? I don't have authoritative data, I can only make a rough estimate. Officially, Qingzhou has a population of 900,000. According to the proportion of one billion people and 800 million farmers, the urban population of Qingzhou should not exceed 300,000. As a result, the city's 654.38+10,000 housing units basically reached a balance between supply and demand. Some people may say that the current construction cost has reached per square meter 1800, and developers can sell it at no less than the cost price. Haha, that's right. The question is whether the funds used by developers to develop real estate are all their own funds. If so, I have nothing to say. If not, it is still a question of the capital chain.

Although the house in the hands of the developer will not charge his own property management fee, he should consider the loan interest of the bank, even his own money should also consider the loss and depreciation of interest. People who own multiple houses should also consider the costs of property management and building depreciation. I mean the house is idle or vacant, which is a special commodity. With the change of use environment and conditions, it can proliferate, and of course, it may depreciate, even if it maintains a stable price.

Sixth, when there is no house, I look at the rising house prices and sigh-don't grow up, there are auction houses now-resettlement houses next year-don't lower the house prices, just my current psychology. The base price of the resettlement house I bought is 1840 yuan, and the excess is 2300 yuan. Now the city has adjusted the location fee to adjust the land price and house price in Qingzhou. Take care of yourself.

Seven, can't expect people from surrounding counties and cities to live in Qingzhou-on the surface, Qingzhou extends in all directions and is a transportation hub, but there are toll stations on three sides to collect Qingzhou money. Even if there is no Changle in the East, there are charges not far from Changle. It can be said that it is under siege. If you work in a neighboring county and live in Qingzhou, the round-trip light fee may be more expensive than the gas fee, unless you stay in Qingzhou and don't want to go out, or rarely go out. You want to live in a cage. Of course, people born and raised in Qingzhou can't live in Qingzhou. Maybe those really rich people have gone to the seaside city to buy villas?