According to Announcement No.30 of the Central Bank, the loan interest rates of all individual housing commercial loan contracts signed before June 65438+1 October1in 2020 must be converted into LPR plus points from the floating interest rate set with reference to the benchmark loan interest rate. The conversion time will start from March 1 in 2020 and be completed before August 3 1. Only individual housing loan contracts with only one repricing cycle cannot be converted. Individual housing loan contracts signed after June 65438+1 October1in 2020 all use LPR plus interest.
Although there is no choice between conversion and non-conversion, there are still two options for conversion: one is to convert into LPR plus points, and the other is to directly convert into fixed interest rates. Among them, the LPR at the time of conversion is based on the LPR released in February 20 19. According to Announcement No.30, whether it is converted into LPR plus point or fixed interest rate, the converted interest rate level must be the same as before the next repricing date. After conversion, the plus sign and the fixed interest rate remain unchanged and cannot be converted again. After the next repricing date, if it is converted into LPR bonus points, from each repricing date to the next repricing date, the execution loan interest rate will be calculated according to the LPR bonus points of the latest month.
Taking the target loan interest rate as an example, the benchmark interest rate for loans over five years is 4.90, the floating 10% real interest rate is 5.39, and the LPR for loans over five years over 201965438+February is 4.80. Then, the converted loan interest rate is LPR+59 basis points or the fixed interest rate is 5.39.
Since the current downward trend of interest rates has been fixed, it is more cost-effective to convert it into LPR+59 basis points, and early conversion will benefit early. In March 2020, the LPR was 4.75, and in April, the LPR dropped to 4.65. Assuming that the conversion is completed in March and the repricing date of the loan contract is April 1 in 2020, the actual loan interest rate will be reduced from 5.39 to 5.24 after April 1. If the loan amount is 700,000 yuan, it will save 708 yuan a year after conversion. Of course, if you choose a fixed interest rate during the conversion, you will not enjoy this benefit.
Judging from the long-term election, there is a great chance that the mortgage interest rate will go down. In other words, the future mortgage interest rate may go down.
The previous benchmark loan interest rate was 4.9%, which was the lowest loan interest rate in the benchmark interest rate era. It can be said that mortgage is a very cost-effective loan. The recent lpr is 4.8%, which is 0. 1% lower than the benchmark interest rate. Compared with the benchmark interest rate of 4.9%, the gap is very small.
I suggest that buyers with short loan life, such as those with a mortgage life of less than 5 years, can choose a fixed interest rate, which is the previous benchmark interest rate. Because most of the rest of the mortgage is the principal, the interest ratio is already very small. Even if lpr is chosen, the mortgage interest rate will be reduced, and not much interest will be saved. Although the fixed interest rate does not enjoy the benefits of falling interest rates, it will not raise interest rates because of rising interest rates.
If you are a buyer who has just borrowed money or has a long remaining repayment period, you can choose lpr. In the long run, if the loan interest rate drops, more interest can be saved while the mortgage interest rate drops.
Now no one can determine the specific trend of mortgage interest rate in the next few years or the next decade. To sum up, if you want to be steady, you must choose a fixed interest rate, and the monthly payment and interest are clear at a glance. If you think that the mortgage interest rate will drop sharply in the future, you can choose lpr. If the mortgage interest rate drops, you can save interest.
This policy is actually aimed at those loan users with floating interest rates. Prior to this, most users of fixed-rate mortgages knew nothing about this. Because the future LPR interest rate will replace the benchmark lending rate in China.
If your mortgage was a floating interest rate before, that is, it rose by 10% according to the benchmark interest rate, starting from 20 15, the benchmark interest rate for more than five years was 4.9%, and the floating interest rate at this stage was about 5.39%.
You can choose to continue to repay the mortgage at the interest rate of 5.39%, or you can renegotiate with the bank to repay the mortgage at the new fixed interest rate. At this stage, if the interest rate is low for a long time, we should be able to talk about the mortgage interest rate below 5.39%. This is actually a new mortgage contract, giving up the original floating interest rate contract.
You can also choose the floating interest rate from March to August 2020, 3 1. Now the LPR interest rate is 4. 15%, so your dividend now is about 30%. That is 4. 15%* 1.3=5.395%. Of course, the decimal point here will be more accurate and will not exceed your original interest rate of 5.39%.
In the future, if the LPR interest rate falls, your interest burden will fall next year. For example, if the LPR interest rate of 202 1 year was 4%, then 4%* 1.3=5.2%.
Remember: all choices have a price.
How about floating interest rates?
Floating interest rates are certainly good. 10 years ago, most loans had an interest rate of 7% to 8%, and now it is about 5%. What about the future? Generally, it will be lower and lower, like Europe and Japan, with negative interest rates. At that time, your interest will be waived. Of course, you still have to pay back the principal.
But floating interest rates are risky. The fixed interest rate seems to have suffered a loss last year, but what if there is an annual interest rate? For example, the benchmark interest rate in Argentina is 60%. For example, today, the United States raised the interest rate to 16% at 1980 because of hyperinflation. Of course, smart people will say that if there is hyperinflation, I will sell the house and pay back the money in advance. Well, that's a good choice. The problem is that we are not efficient. This house is not for sale. Because floating interest rates will bear the risk of rising interest rates. As we all know, the interest rate of 5% is now reduced to 0% at most, that is, there is no interest, but there is a lot of room for improvement. I don't know much.
How about a fixed interest rate?
Fixed interest rate is uneconomical and uneconomical, but it can avoid risks. You see, the interest rate is getting lower and lower every year, even negative, and you are still paying 5% interest. You are very uncomfortable. However, if a person's income is stable, the cost burden is a bit high. So, all you have to do is keep returning the ball steadily. The certainty of the future is much higher.
At present, floating interest rates are still recommended.
You are a floating interest rate determined by the benchmark interest rate, and in the future, you are a floating interest rate determined by LPR. If your floating interest rate has been floating for the past ten years, you are a good deal. You must have benefited from a 20 15 interest rate cut. You also found that the overall interest rate trend is downward. Then the future is just to change a relative standard for calculating interest. It makes no difference. Therefore, floating interest rates are recommended. However, considering that the floating interest rate is risky, although the probability of this risk is very small, it is the selected price.
Let's first look at what the central bank said.
1. The floating interest rate loans for stocks mentioned in this announcement refer to floating interest rate loans (excluding provident fund personal housing loans) issued by financial institutions before June 65438+1 October12020. Since June 5438+ 10/day, 2020, financial institutions are not allowed to sign floating interest rate loan contracts with reference to the benchmark loan interest rate.
2. From March 1 2020, financial institutions should negotiate with customers of existing floating interest rate loans on the conversion terms of the pricing benchmark, and convert the interest rate pricing method agreed in the original contract into LPR as the pricing benchmark (the increase point can be negative), and the value added will be fixed during the remaining period of the contract; It can also be converted into a fixed interest rate. Pricing benchmark can only be converted once, and cannot be converted again after conversion. In the last repricing cycle, the floating-rate loan of inventory shall not be converted. In principle, the conversion of the pricing benchmark of floating rate loans should be completed before August 3, 20201.
The announcement of the central bank means:
After March 2020 1, users who borrow money to buy houses nationwide can re-sign loan contracts with banks. The personal mortgage involved is as high as 28 trillion.
If the re-signed mortgage interest rate drops by 1%, the loan of 1 10,000 can save the interest of 1 10,000 a year, which is 833 yuan a month. For most families, it is undoubtedly a good thing. By August 3 1, everyone has five months to operate.
Let me start with the conclusion:
It is recommended to switch to LPR and sign LPR for only one year.
What is LPR?
Simply put, the loan interest rate is no longer determined by the central bank, but by several large commercial banks according to market changes. This is actually equivalent to the central bank handing over the pricing power of the benchmark interest rate to the following banks, which has taken a key step in the marketization of the financial system.
Then there is the question of extra points. Previously, it floated according to the benchmark interest rate, rising by 20% or falling by 10%. In the future, there will be no such problem of floating up and down, and it will be changed to a fixed point, and the bonus value will be fixed during the remaining period of the contract.
For example:
The loan interest rate of the house bought by Xiaoming is determined by the benchmark interest rate rising 10%, that is, 4.90% x (1+0.1) = 5.39%, and the latest LPR is 4.80%, so the difference is 5.39%-4.80%=0.59%.
The loan interest rate of the house bought by Xiaohong is determined by the benchmark interest rate falling by 20%, that is, 4.90%x( 1-0.2)=3.92%, and the latest LPR is 4.80%, so the difference is 3.92%-4.80%=-0.88%, so your fixed score is negative 88.
If the interest rate of LPR continues to drop to 4% in the future.
Then Xiaoming's mortgage interest rate is 4%+0.59%=4.59%, and Xiaohong's mortgage interest rate is 4%-0.88%=3. 12%.
At present, the mortgage interest rate in the world is between 2% and 3% in the United States and 2.75% and 3% in the United Kingdom. The average mortgage interest rate in China is 5.53%, which is basically twice that of developed countries in Europe and America.
In addition, many countries in the world have gradually entered the era of negative interest rates, so LPR is likely to decline in the future. Therefore, it is recommended not to sign a fixed interest rate, and it is best to adopt the LPR+ bonus mode for a period of one year. If LPR continues to decline, then our mortgage interest rate can be reduced year by year.
The current benchmark mortgage interest rate is 4.9%, and the increase of 10% is 5.39%. According to the new regulations, you can choose to keep 5.39% for 20 years in the future. Either change it to floating interest rate, that is, five-year LPR+ plus point, and the plus point is 5.39% (current implementation interest rate) -4.8% (current five-year LPR)=0.59%, then your floating interest rate is five-year LPR+ 0.59 of the previous year. In this way, as long as the lpr is less than 4.8% in the future, your conversion floating interest rate is worthwhile.
Whether to switch has little to do with whether your current benchmark interest rate is rising or falling, but more importantly, whether LPR will rise or fall in the future. So you think downward conversion is a floating interest rate, if you think upward conversion is a fixed interest rate.
In the current economic situation, it is very likely that lpr will be lowered. First of all, the world economy as a whole is in a very weak environment. Japan and Europe have negative interest rates, and the United States has cut interest rates three times in a row. China's economy is also facing great pressure recently, so the next rate cut is also a high probability event. I think the lpr interest rate will be in a downward trend in five years. So if you have five or even ten years left in your loan, I suggest you choose a floating interest rate.
10 or 20 years later, will lpr go up or down? It's hard to predict now. But if you still have 20 years left in your loan, I still suggest you choose floating interest rate, because the interest rate cut within 10 years is relatively certain. Ten years later, the currency is depreciating. The value of your debt remains the same, but the actual purchasing power has declined. We can think about it. Ten years ago, if you had 2,000 yuan a month, how stressful it was. The pressure of paying 2000 yuan today is much less. Therefore, even if lpr rose at that time, the benefits we enjoyed in the first year of 10 would be greater than what we paid after 10.
On this issue, I found that many people have a misunderstanding.
They often feel that if their mortgage interest rate is high, they should change with the change of lpr. If their mortgage interest rate is low, they should choose a fixed interest rate.
This view is groundless. Whether to choose the interest rate to follow the change of lpr is actually not directly related to the previous mortgage interest rate, but at best it is just a psychological feeling.
Because in this mortgage interest rate adjustment scheme, the first thing to do is to connect with lpr plus interest rate, that is, change the original benchmark interest rate floating mode to lpr plus or minus points, and the interest rate converted for the first time will not change.
For example, your original mortgage interest rate was 5.88%, and you chose to change the contract in April 2020. At that time, the lpr was 4.8%, your score was 108, and your mortgage interest rate was still 5.88%.
In this case, you have two choices. One is to choose a fixed interest rate, that is, the future mortgage interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.88%, and the other is to choose the interest rate to follow the change of lpr.
If you choose the latter, it will take at least one year for the interest rate to change, which depends on the lpr at that time.
If lpr remains at 4.8%, your mortgage interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.88%. If lpr rises to 5%, your mortgage interest rate will become 6.08%. If lpr drops to 4.6%, your mortgage interest rate will become 5.68%.
It can be seen that whether to choose the interest rate to follow the change of lpr has nothing to do with the previous mortgage interest rate. The key is to judge whether the interest rate will fall or rise in the future.
If you are sure that the interest rate will go down in the future, then you should choose to follow the change of lpr. If you are sure that the interest rate will rise in the future, then you should choose a fixed interest rate.
Your current mortgage interest rate is: 4.9% * (1+10%) = 5.39%. According to the latest mortgage interest rate policy, the existing floating house interest rate mortgage needs to be converted into the mortgage interest rate based on LPR, so you have two choices: fixed interest rate and floating interest rate.
If you choose a fixed interest rate, your future mortgage interest rate will always be 5.39%. Whether LPR will change in the future or not has nothing to do with you. If it goes up, it will be earned; On the other hand, if LPR falls, even if you lose, it's a bit like gambling.