Guo Shuqing, Chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission, emphasized this point again in his recent speech. At the press conference held by the State Council Information Office a few days ago, Guo Shuqing said that real estate has a strong financial tendency. If the real estate boom dissipates in the future, real estate speculators who hold multiple properties will suffer huge losses in their personal property, and the loans will not be repaid, which will push up the non-performing loan ratio of banks and lead to chaos in economic life. Therefore, we must actively and steadily promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
In fact, since the second half of last year, the regulatory authorities have played a set of "combination boxing" on the financial side of the real estate bubble. In 2020, the growth rate of real estate loans was lower than that of various loans for the first time in eight years.
By the end of 2020, the central bank and other relevant departments will manage the concentration of bank real estate loans and strictly control the funds flowing into the real estate sector from the proportion of funds. Recently, local banking and insurance regulatory bureaus have strengthened supervision over the flow of "operating loans" and cracked down on its flow to the real estate market.
Concentration management is "loose"
On the last day of 2020, after the "three red lines", the real estate industry once again ushered in the strong supervision of the financial side. The Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Establishing a Centralized Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which clarified the institutional coverage, management requirements and adjustment mechanism of the centralized management system for real estate loans.
A senior executive of a real estate enterprise told the reporter of "China Business News" that the new regulations have limited impact on the market, especially those who just need people, but they have a certain impact on real estate speculation in first-tier cities in the near future. For housing enterprises, the head brand housing enterprises are more favorable, and the banking strategy leaves the scarce quota to these housing enterprises. It is more difficult for small and medium-sized housing enterprises to borrow money and increase the pressure on cash flow.
According to the Notice, the management requirements of real estate loan concentration are divided into five grades according to the types of banks. For large Chinese banks, the upper limit of real estate loans is 40%, and the upper limit of personal housing loans is 32.5%; Medium-sized banks in China have a real estate loan ceiling of 27.5% and a personal housing loan ceiling of 20%; For small Chinese banks and non-county agricultural cooperative institutions, the upper limit of real estate loans is 22.5%, and the upper limit of personal housing loans is17.5%; County-level rural cooperative institutions, the upper limit of real estate loans is 17.5%, and the upper limit of personal housing loans is12.5%; Village banks, the upper limit of real estate loans is 12.5%, and the upper limit of personal housing loans is 7.5%. This also means that the larger the bank, the higher the proportion of real estate loans and the upper limit of personal housing loans.
According to industry insiders, personal housing loans are mainly made by big banks, because the absorption reserve is large and the cost of capital is relatively low, which makes mortgage loans "cost-effective". Local small banks will not vigorously develop personal housing loan business unless they establish a certain degree of cooperation with real estate developers. This can also explain why the Notice sets different ceilings on the proportion of real estate business of different banks.
Wind data shows that from 20 13 to 20 19, the total balance of individual housing loans of 35 banks listed on A-shares rose from 17% to 27% at the end of 20 19.
From the perspective of growth rate, the total balance of individual housing loans of 35 banks rose rapidly from13 to 20 19, rising from 17% to 35%, and then falling back to 15% year by year. The statistical report on loan investment of financial institutions released by the central bank every year also confirms this trend. In 20 17, the balance of individual housing loans was 2 1.9 trillion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 14.5 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. The year-on-year growth rates of 20 18 and 20 19 all slowed down. At the end of 2020, the balance of individual housing loans in China increased by 14.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate further slowed down.
Guo Shuqing clearly mentioned at the recent press conference held by the State Council Information Office: "The core problem of real estate is that the bubble is relatively large. Many people buy houses not for living, but for investment or speculation, which is very dangerous. " He also said that the current trend of real estate financialization and bubble has been curbed, and the growth rate of real estate loans in 2020 is lower than that of various loans for the first time in eight years. This achievement is hard-won, and I believe that the real estate problem can be gradually alleviated.
According to the Statistical Report on Loan Investment of Financial Institutions in 2020, the balance of RMB real estate loans at the end of 2020 was 49.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 1.7%, which was 3. 1 percentage point lower than the growth rate at the end of last year, and declined for 29 consecutive months. At the same time, the balance of real estate development loans was 1 1.9 1 trillion yuan, up 6. 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year.
At the same time, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission firmly adhere to the "one city, one policy" management model for centralized management of real estate loans, and try to avoid the financial risks that may be brought about by the rigid system. The "Notice" shows that local supervision can float up and down by 2.5 percentage points according to local specific conditions and the management requirements of three, four and five types of real estate loans.
After the notice was issued, Shanghai, Sichuan, Shandong, Liaoning and other places issued corresponding notices for the concentration of real estate loans in the region, in which the upper limit of some indicators for the assessment of real estate loans in the region was adjusted.
For example, Liaoning adjusted the upper limit of the third personal housing loan to 18.5%, which was higher than the central bank data 1 percentage point; The upper limit of the fourth set of personal housing loans is adjusted to 14.5%, which is two percentage points higher than the central bank's data; The ceiling of the fifth set of individual housing loans was adjusted to 8.5%, which was higher than the central bank data 1 percentage point. Also in Sichuan, the upper limit of the concentration ratio of the fourth set of individual housing loans was raised by 1.5 percentage points to 14%.
Shandong Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau raised the upper limit of real estate loan concentration standard for city commercial banks and private banks within its jurisdiction by 2.5 percentage points to 25%. In this regard, Shandong Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau said that the arrangement is based on the follow-up norms of non-standard investment business and off-balance sheet wealth management business, leaving necessary space for the funds actually invested in the real estate sector, but it cannot be recovered in the short term, and it really needs to be returned to the table for processing. According to the detailed rules issued by Fujian, the longest transition period for business adjustment of over-standard institutions that are indeed difficult to adjust is 6 years upon application, so as to ensure a smooth transition of over-standard institutions.
It is worth noting that the tightening adjustment of personal housing loans by banks will have an impact on the proportion of personal housing loans in some cities. On March 8th, Zhengzhou Provident Fund Management Center issued "Notice on Soliciting Opinions and Suggestions on Adjusting Individual Housing Loan Policy of Housing Provident Fund", and set the maximum loan ratio (loan amount accounts for the total housing price) according to the deposit and purchase situation. For the first time to purchase the first home with provident fund loans, the maximum loan ratio is set at 70%, but in the case of off-site loans, the maximum loan ratio is set at 40%, lower than the previous 60%.
Chen, director of the credit management department of Zhengzhou Housing Management Center, explained to the media that the proportion of the first set of housing loans remained unchanged, which was intended to ensure the just-needed loan demand for Zhengzhou to pay the provident fund for a long time. However, because many banks have tightened their loans at present, it will bring a lot of pressure to the provident fund department. Therefore, for non-just-needed, second-home and off-site borrowers, the loan ratio may be reduced in the future.
Severely crack down on operating loans flowing to the property market.
In addition to the adjustment of real estate development loans and housing loans, the determination of the regulatory authorities to curb the real estate bubble is also reflected in the financial side, including strict supervision of "operating loans".
Some bankers told reporters that there are two main reasons why operating loans flow to the property market: First, it is difficult to supervise the flow of operating loans, and banks can only know the flow of money, but it is difficult to confirm whether buying and selling transactions constitute. In this case, if funds flow into the property market in an idle way, it will be more difficult to supervise and the buyers will have a lot of room to operate. Secondly, operating loans can lend a lot more money than consumer loans, which is more attractive to real estate speculators.
Zhao Xiuchi, vice president and secretary general of Beijing Real Estate Law Society and professor of capital university of economics and business, mentioned that the current interest rate of operating loans is generally lower than that of consumer loans, or it has become a major reason for operating loans to flow into the property market.
The insiders of the above-mentioned banks also said that due to the consideration of non-performing loan ratio, banks subjectively do not want to expand lending to SMEs, but with the support of policies, the pressure on banks is even greater. Zhao Xiuchi further stated that the profit-seeking nature of capital makes small and medium-sized micro-loans not necessarily have practical effects.
20021March 10, at the last session of the Fourth Session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee, Chen, a CPPCC member and vice governor of the People's Bank of China, mentioned that in 20021year, the inclusive small and micro loans of large commercial banks increased by more than 30%. How to make the policy support for small and medium-sized enterprises be implemented, instead of flowing to the real estate sector, and fueling its bubble degree? It is particularly important to strictly supervise the flow of "operating loans".
1 At the end of the year, key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou took the lead in cracking down on commercial loans flowing into the property market. The Beijing Real Estate Agency Industry Association announced that in order to resolutely curb speculative real estate speculation, the Beijing Housing and Construction Department recently interviewed and continuously inspected real estate agencies, demanding that they should not participate in any illegal real estate financial activities such as "operating loans", "down payment loans" and "consumer loans". At the same time, Xinhua News Agency reported that several joint-stock banks in Beijing raised their operating loan interest rates.
Employees of four major state-owned banks in Beijing told reporters that at present, banks have not raised the interest rate of operating loans, and big banks have been strict in the supervision of the whereabouts of funds.
20211/On October 29th, Shanghai Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued the Notice of Shanghai Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau on Further Strengthening the Management of Personal Housing Credit, which put forward requirements for the management of the use of credit funds and the business cooperation management of real estate intermediaries. A related person from a joint-stock bank in Shanghai told reporters that the interest rate of the bank's operating loans has not been raised at present, but the audit of the loan destination is indeed strict.
In addition, the Banking Insurance Regulatory Bureau in Guangzhou, Dalian, Chongqing, Suzhou and other places imposed penalties on the flow of local bank loan funds to the real estate sector. Recently, a Notice Letter on Early Recovery of Personal Loans circulated in Shanghai showed that the bank announced that the loan under the loan contract was due to the borrower's failure to fulfill the relevant provisions of the loan contract, requiring the borrower to repay all the loan principal and interest within a time limit.
Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that the current situation of the national property market is very similar to that of 20 15~20 16: from Shenzhen and Shanghai to hot second-tier cities such as Guangzhou and Beijing, the heat of the whole metropolitan area is obviously picking up. Failure to control the flow of operating loans is likely to give birth to a new round of bubbles. Regulators have a clear understanding of this point, so cracking down on commercial loans and illegal inflow of funds into the real estate market will be the main task of real estate regulation this year, and it is also related to whether the property market can stabilize this year.