The crisis did not happen overnight. Two years ago, long-term rental apartments were still in a high-profile situation, and various capitals rushed to overweight, and head enterprises went public in the United States. However, it is precisely because of the blessing of capital power that some decentralized long-term rental apartments have fallen into the general dilemma of "Internet-style" subsidies for burning money, and the more they expand, the more they lose money.
"Decentralized long-term rental apartments are scaled up with high income and low rent, and they use rental loans to circle money, similar to Ponzi schemes." Some senior people in the leasing industry told reporters that under the pressure of funds, these long-term rental brands should continue to expand their scale, but the more they expand, the more they lose money, and it is difficult to operate in a refined way.
Even if the industry head company is comfortable, it can't escape the profit dilemma, which is the radical performance of the enterprise strategy and the result of the immature industry. It is worth noting that at present, many places are strengthening the supervision of the leasing industry, and irregular behaviors are expected to be corrected, but long-term leasing enterprises still have a long way to go to find a sustainable profit model.
Frequent "thunder"
165438+1October 30th, freely announcing strategic acquisitions Beike Youth Boutique Apartment. After the merger, 53 centralized apartment projects will be operated in seven cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Nanjing. Freely said that this move will help to quickly increase the scale of its centralized apartments in the core cities.
In the current long-term rental apartment market, the decentralized type is to rent a house from an individual landlord and rent it after renovation to obtain rent difference income, commonly known as "second landlord"; Concentration means renting out the whole property after renovation. The houses are concentrated and easy to manage, but the initial investment is large.
Freedom is the first brand of rental apartments in China. At present, it has formed the coverage of decentralized shared rent, whole rent, luxury house, centralized single-family house and community rental products. At the same time of high-profile expansion, it is free to encounter the rights protection of owners in the field of decentralized leasing.
As early as the beginning of the year, the landlord told the First Financial Reporter that he received a phone call from the salesman to discuss rent reduction on the grounds that the partition would be demolished and the income would be affected. If the landlord does not agree, he can unilaterally terminate the contract, compensate for two months' rent and deduct the decoration fee.
Most of the houses affected are houses that are won for free at high prices in order to seize the market. Under the influence of factors such as the impact of the epidemic and the low temperature of the rental market, you can freely choose to "break your arm to survive". "All tenants affected by the termination will negotiate amicably, and the owners who meet the contract support will pay liquidated damages." Just say it.
As the head company of the industry, there is still room for turnover for the time being, while other "explosive" companies are in an uproar. Recently, some tenants reported that due to the financial crisis in their long-term rented apartment, their annual payment "hit Shui Piao" and they were forced to move out and find a new house.
"There are seven months left in the lease, but the landlord said that he would repay the loan. The long-term rental apartment has already owed them two months' rent. "Tenant Wang Lin (pseudonym) told reporters that according to the landlord's idea, if they want to continue to live, both parties can re-sign the contract and pay the rent directly to the landlord from 65438+February.
Wang Lin doesn't want to accept this plan. "We haven't cancelled the contract with the long-term rental apartment. Even if you want to cancel the contract, it is unknown whether the deposit and rent can be refunded. If we renew the contract with the landlord privately, which one has legal effect? " He said that all parties are still waiting to see and wait for the next result.
The more you expand, the more you lose.
According to the incomplete statistics of the First Financial Reporter, from 20 17 to now, there are 153 parents' rental brands in China, from 1 to1,and there will be as many as 84 in 2020. Among them, a large part of the reason is that the capital chain is broken due to the operation mode of "low output of AG", "long receipt and short payment" and "lease loan" abuse.
Among them, "rental loan" is the focus of long-term rental enterprises. In order to obtain more funds, long-term rental apartment operators will introduce financial institutions, tenants will sign loan treaties with them to repay rental loans in installments, and financial institutions will transfer the annual rent into the long-term rental apartment enterprise account at one time.
In this case, the tenant may generate loans without knowing it, and the loans released by financial institutions will directly flow to long-term rental apartments. Because long-term rental apartments are paid to landlords on a monthly or quarterly basis, a huge pool of funds will be precipitated under the mismatch of terms, and this fund is not supervised by an independent third party.
In the event of a "lightning" incident, the capital chain of the long-term rental apartment is broken and it is impossible to make money from the landlord, but the tenant still has a debt relationship with the financial institution. Undoubtedly, the abuse of "lease loan" promotes the disorderly expansion of long-term rental apartments and increases the risk of damage to tenants' rights and interests, but it is not the core factor for enterprises to fall into crisis.
As early as May this year, the National Finance and Development Laboratory wrote that even large-scale listed long-term rental apartments are facing huge liquidity risks. The fundamental reasons are: the cash flow of the enterprise itself is negative and the scale is huge; The epidemic has accelerated the fluctuation in cash flow from financing.
Take an American listed long-term rental apartment brand as an example. In the past three years, the number of houses operated by the company has soared, but the operating efficiency and occupancy rate have continued to decline. The growth rate of rental cost has exceeded the growth rate of income, and the more it expands, the more it loses money. Even without the impact of the epidemic, the liquidity risk of this company is hard to ignore.
Tongce Asset Management also believes that as long as the apartment can operate normally, maintain a certain liquidity, and do not cause a crisis of tenant trust, and further centralized check-out, the rental loan itself will not become the fuse of the crisis, not to mention the main contradiction of the business dilemma.
The agency also believes that the root of the crisis lies in the fact that under the current business model and management model, every apartment operated by long-term rental enterprises is paying money. Starting from 20 18, cities across the country began to strictly investigate housing distribution and group renting. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the rental rate and rent decreased, which accelerated the exposure of the capital chain problem of long-term rental enterprises.
It is urgent to get rid of "barbaric growth"
Despite the frequent problems such as "thunderbolt", "formaldehyde house" and "rental loan", the emergence of long-term rental apartments still meets the rental needs of young people and is an important way to solve the structural imbalance of China's rental market. As a new format, long-term rental industry urgently needs to step into the track of orderly development.
Ding Zuyu, CEO of Yiju Holdings, believes that renting an apartment for a long time is just like enjoying bicycles and Didi in the early days. Fighting for capital, strength and scale is the normal performance in the early stage of the industry. After "big waves wash sand", the industry will mature, and the mid-end enterprises will gradually withdraw, eventually reaching a healthy state of checks and balances.
The National Finance and Development Laboratory also issued a document saying that the industry entry threshold and relevant standards and norms (such as carriage, decoration, safety, etc.) should be established. ) should formulate and regularly organize industry situation discussion; The local government should cooperate with the housing construction department to build an information platform for long-term rental apartments, and supervise tenants' rents by opening special accounts in banks.
Recently, many places have issued documents to strengthen supervision. Among them, Jinan should strengthen the supervision of the business model of "low agricultural yield" and "long income and short payment", and implement measures such as interviewing warnings, suspending online signing for filing, issuing risk warnings, and investigating according to laws and regulations for enterprises that do not have the ability to continue to operate and expand too fast.
In response to the problem of "rental loans", Chengdu clearly stated that the rental income of housing leasing enterprises should not exceed 30%; Shenzhen also made it clear that housing leasing enterprises should not induce tenants to use housing leasing consumer loans in the name of rent staging and rent concessions.
Ke Rui Renting believes that the intensive introduction of regulatory policies should make long-term rental apartments return to the essence of "living". This means that the period of large-scale expansion of long-term rental apartments by means of "high income and low output", "long rent and short payment" and "rental loan" has passed, and the industry is changing from attaching importance to scale to deep farming operation.
However, some people in the industry do not recognize the development of decentralized long-term rental brands. The above-mentioned people in the leasing industry told reporters that decentralized long-term rental apartments are financed by rent loans and expanded by subletting houses. However, the more expansion, the more losses, and it is difficult to achieve refined operations.
Relatively speaking, centralized apartments are more centralized in management efficiency. Through the refined operation of this amplifier, the income can be effectively improved and sustainable development can be realized. However, the scattered early-stage funds are less precipitated, which is conducive to the rapid expansion of enterprises in the short term, but the cost and profit are difficult to control.
Take centralized long-term rental apartments operated by real estate enterprises such as Vanke and Longhu as an example. These brands are deliberately slowing down scale expansion and improving management quality and efficiency. In the past three years, the overall rental rate of Longhu Guanyu has increased, climbing to 85.3% in the first half of this year, and the "rental loan" model will not be used.
Long-term rental of apartments is not a profiteering industry. Any blind pursuit of scale, high cost of obtaining housing and abuse of financial leverage may put corporate funds under pressure. After dealing with the problems left by "Thunderbolt" apartment, only refined operation can make the industry achieve sustainable development.