A prudent monetary policy will be moderately tight.
Chen said in his speech that China's prudent monetary policy will be moderate this year, and the growth rate of M2 and social financing scale should match the nominal growth rate of GDP. China will improve the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy, accelerate the construction of financial market infrastructure, improve the disposal mechanism of problem financial institutions, continue to improve the exchange rate formation mechanism, and maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
Recently, there have been endless discussions on monetary policy in the market, which is the central bank's statement on monetary policy again this year. At the end of last month, the central bank official also dismissed a rumor that "April 1 was allowed to take off and land". After the central bank released the latest financial data last Friday, in view of the fact that the financial data in March exceeded market expectations and other reasons, many institutions gave the judgment that the probability of RRR reduction in the near future was reduced.
The data shows that at the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 188.94 trillion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of February and the same period last year respectively. The balance of narrow money (M 1) was 54.76 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.6 percentage points higher than that at the end of February and 2.5 percentage points lower than that at the same period last year.
At the same time, RMB loans increased by 1.69 trillion yuan in March, an increase of 577.7 billion yuan over the same period of last year; In addition, the scale of social financing increased by 2.86 trillion yuan in March, more than the same period of last year 1.28 trillion yuan.
According to the analysis of Ping An Securities Research Report, compared with the comprehensive data of1-February, the negative scissors difference of M 1-M2 in March was greatly narrowed. This shows that the liquidity of enterprises has greatly improved, the operating conditions of enterprises may improve, and the pressure of sustained economic decline has eased. Considering the rapid implementation of the new round of tax reduction and fee reduction policy, the operating conditions of enterprises are expected to further improve, which is conducive to the early stabilization of China's real economy.
Haitong Securities Research Report believes that the data of different calibers all point to the stabilization of the growth rate of social financing scale, indicating that the economy is expected to stabilize and improve in the future. Recently, pig prices have raised inflation. Although monetary policy will not be tightened, considering that the manufacturing boom has improved since March, PMI has rebounded above the threshold, credit has increased substantially, medium and long-term loans of enterprises have improved, and the growth rate of social financing has stabilized. It is difficult to relax monetary policy significantly in the short term, and the probability of RRR reduction has dropped significantly in the near future.
According to the "Report on Bankers' Questionnaire Survey in the First Quarter of 20 19" previously released by the central bank, the macroeconomic heat index of bankers was 36.4%, up 2.0 percentage points from the previous quarter. For the next quarter, bankers' expectation index of macroeconomic heat is 39.3%, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than this quarter's judgment.
It will further expand the opening up of the financial industry.
According to the website of the central bank, Chen also pointed out in his speech that China will further open its financial industry, achieve institutionalized and systematic opening, and treat Chinese-funded and foreign-funded financial institutions equally in a more transparent and international way.
Regarding the opening of financial markets, Xinhua quoted Chen as saying that the China stock market is showing signs of bottoming out. With the diversification of international institutional investors' securities investment and the further opening of China's bond market and stock market, the inflow of foreign securities investment reached a record $654.38+020 billion last year. In view of the fact that RMB-denominated assets are increasingly included in international indexes, the potential of foreign securities investment inflows is rising.
Since this month, China bonds have been officially included in the Bloomberg Barclays Bond Index, which has become one of the milestones of financial market opening this year.
Last month, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said at the China Development Forum that foreign financial institutions have made remarkable progress in entering the China market: the shareholding ratio of Swiss banks in UBS Securities has increased to 5 1%, achieving absolute control; Allianz (China) Insurance was approved to be established, becoming the first foreign insurance holding company in China; S&P is allowed to enter the credit rating market in China; American Express initiated the establishment of a joint venture company in China, and the application for establishing a bank card clearing institution has been approved.
Chen also publicly stated that China's economy is generally stable, and progress continues to be made in the optimization and upgrading of its economic structure. China's economic growth pays more attention to quality and becomes more balanced at the same time. This year, China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and a proactive fiscal policy, and strengthen policy coordination. In addition, the China Municipal Government will continue to promote high-level opening up, and will further open up the financial industry in the future, treating domestic and foreign financial institutions equally.