Restrain excessive loan impulse
Hu Yu believes that the effect of the central bank's previous regulation of the market through differentiated deposit reserve ratio is not obvious, and the bank's loan impulse has not been effectively curbed. At present, the market is most worried about the pressure of inflation, especially after the appreciation of the renminbi, how to weigh the game between foreign capital and domestic capital brought about by the appreciation of the renminbi and the rise in asset prices. Previously, the excessive lending impulse of banks brought possible bad debt risks to banks, and now the central bank is releasing the signal of maintaining stability.
Hu Yu told reporters that raising the loan interest rate shows that the central bank hopes that enterprises will bring funds into the real economy, reduce the capital game between commodity markets, agricultural products markets and real estate, and eliminate market concerns about inflation. He believes that strengthening the management of inflation expectations is the top priority of the central bank in the third and fourth quarters of 20 10. In the case that CPI may hit a new high and everyone thinks that there will be no interest rate increase during the year, it will be more able to release the signal. On the other hand, the increase of deposit interest rate can lock in some deposits, manage inflation expectations and compensate depositors to some extent. He said that this also reflects the differentiated countermeasures of the central banks of China and the United States. China's economy is at a high tide, which is different from the low tide of the American economy. By doing so, the central bank prevented possible bubbles in advance.
It has little impact on bank performance.
The above analysts believe that the interest rate hike has no obvious impact on the bank's interest margin, but because loans are suppressed, the cost of deposits will increase and the scale may also increase, so the bank's profits will decrease. In addition, he said that raising interest rates will also have an impact on wealth management products, especially trust products. He said that at present, the supervision of banking products by CBRC is becoming more and more strict. In the future, banks may increase securities wealth management products, such as private placement, while reducing real estate wealth management products.
Vice President of Shenzhen Branch also said in an interview that the rate hike by the central bank is relatively small, and the impact on banks is relatively small.
Cao Honghui, director of the Financial Market Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, told the reporter of National Business Daily that the central bank recently raised the differential deposit reserve ratio, and now it is raising interest rates, indicating that the central bank expects to curb excessive credit expansion. However, he also believes that the actual impact is not great, and it is only a warning function at most, which has little impact on the bank's performance. However, raising interest rates will have a systematic impact on various pricing in the market.
The impact on insurance is neutral.
In addition, analysts believe that the impact of interest rate hikes on insurance companies is neutral. Orient securities Wang Xiaogang said that the impact on insurance companies in the early period of interest rate hike is positive, because the upward trend of market interest rate will exceed the upward trend of benchmark interest rate or bank interest rate. For insurance companies, the growth rate of bond yield will exceed the increase of policy cost, but in the second half of interest rate increase, because the market interest rate reflects the expectations of market participants, it will run very fast in the early stage and fall back in the later stage. In this case, the market interest rate will not exceed the benchmark interest rate, and the increase will be less than the benchmark interest rate.
Another analyst told reporters that the impact of interest rate hikes on insurance companies is neutral. He said that on the one hand, the premium income of insurance companies may decline, because the increase of bank deposit interest rate will divert some insurance products of insurance companies, such as dividend insurance, but on the other hand, because a large part of insurance funds exist in the form of large-sum agreement deposits, the increase of time deposit interest rate will improve the return on investment of insurance companies.