The direct cause of the US subprime mortgage market storm is the rising interest rate in the United States and the continuous cooling of the housing market.
The direct cause of the US subprime mortgage market storm is that the US interest rate rises and the housing market continues to cool down. Subprime mortgage refers to loans provided by some lending institutions to borrowers with poor credit and low income.
The American subprime mortgage market usually adopts a combination of fixed interest rate and floating interest rate, that is, buyers repay their loans at a fixed interest rate in the first few years after buying a house, and then at a floating interest rate.
In the five years before 2006, due to the continuous prosperity of the US housing market and the low interest rates in previous years, the US subprime mortgage market developed rapidly.
With the cooling of American housing market, especially the increase of short-term interest rate, the repayment rate of subprime mortgage has also risen sharply, and the repayment burden of buyers has greatly increased. At the same time, the continuous cooling of the housing market also makes it difficult for buyers to sell their houses or refinance through mortgaged houses. This situation directly leads to a large number of borrowers with subprime mortgage loans can not repay on time, which in turn leads to "subprime mortgage crisis".
The biggest warning of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is to be alert to the impact of macro-control policies formulated in response to the economic cycle on specific markets. The root cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is the decline of the real estate market caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. At present, China is facing the situation of accelerating inflation. If the central bank takes measures to substantially increase the interest rate of RMB loans to curb inflationary pressure, it should be alert to two effects: first, the impact of loan tightening on real estate development enterprises may lead to the break of developers' funds; Second, the increasing repayment pressure of mortgage applicants may lead to an increase in mortgage default rate. These two influences will eventually converge on the commercial banking system, leading to an increase in the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks and a decrease in the value of real estate as collateral, which will ultimately affect the profitability and even viability of commercial banks.
People need to know the difference between the economic cycle and the housing market cycle between China and the United States. The United States is a country with a long history of market economy under the global system, with strong periodicity, and is currently in the late stage of this economic cycle.
China, on the other hand, has not experienced a complete economic cycle. Even though the reform and opening up has only been 30 years, it was only 1992 and 1993 that the market economy was put forward. At present, the key words of China's economy are imbalance between supply and demand and large demand for fixed investment. This is the key point that distinguishes the American economy from the cycle close to 10. In addition, the cycle of the Chinese and American housing markets is also different. After the implementation of housing reform in China, there was no housing market for many years before, and the demand soared. Although the housing market in China is also driven by speculative factors, the most important reason is the large demand and limited supply. In addition, the government has room to regulate the real estate market in China.