First, policy expectations have been partially enlarged. At the end of 2020, many departments issued the Notice on Establishing a Centralized Management System for Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions to manage the concentration of real estate loans of commercial banks, which led some banks suspected of "stepping on the line" to lower their housing loan expectations. In fact, according to the regular reports of listed banks, the housing loans of the six major banks account for most of the total housing loans. It can be said that the six major banks are stable and the mortgage is stable. At present, banks suspected of "exceeding the standard" are mainly concentrated in individual joint-stock banks and some city commercial banks, which have little impact on the whole. At present, most of the six banks are within the "safety line", and it is expected that the overall pace of mortgage issuance will remain stable in the future.
Second, the pace of credit supply at the beginning of the year is very uncertain. A number of bank credit leaders told china securities journal that at the beginning of the year, grassroots outlets "closed their positions". You can lend money if you have a position, otherwise you have to wait. The end of the year is often a time when bank positions are tight. Although the mortgage has been standardized, it will also be affected by the position. Especially in some hot spots, once the position is tight and the local mortgage demand increases in the short term, there will be "queuing" loans.
Third, it does not rule out the reasons why some popular areas have strengthened the review of mortgage demand, which has led to the change of loan rhythm. Recently, some bankers said that at present, the bank's review of the source of down payment funds and income sources will be more standardized, mainly to ensure the service of "just-needed" credit services.
At present, the bubble in the real estate industry is too big. In order to control risks, the CIRC does not allow banks to lend. The country is determined to solve the real estate bubble problem. The real estate bubble problem has not been solved for a day, and the downward pressure on China's economy cannot be solved. To this end, China asked the CIRC to strengthen the supervision of banks and various financial institutions.
In addition, the state is ready for the bankruptcy of real estate enterprises next year. Now, after all, the real estate enterprise has sold the house, and some funds in the bank cannot be taken out. Banks give current interest, and real estate enterprises are not allowed to take it away. After the house is sold, the real estate enterprise can take the money away two years later. This deposit is afraid of spending money to solve the messy problems left by housing enterprises after running away.