Let's talk about the role of capital first. Capital is used to resist risks (or losses). Because there is capital, once there is a loss, the loss is the capital, and the bank can operate as usual without going bankrupt, causing panic among depositors, which in turn will have a chain reaction and drag down the overall economy. (Look at the United States and Europe after the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis. Several banks failed before, which triggered an economic crisis! )
Let's talk about the appropriate capital level first. The Basel agreement gives a definition: the amount of capital required for 99% probability of not going bankrupt in the next year.
Third, a long-term appropriate capital level. At present, China's banking industry, stocks can not be traded, bonds and financial institutions default rarely, and commodity futures are rare, so it is mainly the credit risk brought by lending activities. Previously, the People's Bank of China had an indicator of problem loans: the proportion of non-performing loans.
Four variables that affect "whether it will go bankrupt in the next year" in the short term:
First, the speed of economic development. For the domestic banking industry, the speed of economic development is closely related to the speed of bank development, as is the development of international banks, which grow with the expansion of economic scale (such as Morgan in the United States and HSBC in Hong Kong). In the past 30 years, the balance sheet of domestic banks has been accompanied by the rapid growth of GDP (in fact, it is more related to M2, which is faster than GDP growth, because M2 growth rate ≈GDP growth rate +CPI), while the profit growth rate is lower than the scale growth rate, so the profit should be distributed, so the capital accumulation rate of banks is much lower than the scale expansion rate. Therefore, in order to meet the requirement of 8%, China banks urgently need to increase capital and share.
Theoretically speaking, when the economic development is fast, the benefits of enterprises are good, and the benefits of banks are also good. From the risk point of view, when the risk is small, the probability of bankruptcy decreases. According to the definition of Basel Accord, the capital level can be reduced. In that case, the banking industry will not drag down the stock market. However, the reality after the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis tells the Basel Committee that it is not feasible to "lower the capital requirement when the economic prosperity/risk is small and raise the capital requirement when the economic recession/risk is high". In order to stimulate the economy during the recession, banks should be encouraged to lend. Therefore, the concept of "countercyclical supervision" is put forward-the capital adequacy ratio calculated in the boom period is high, but in order to accumulate more in the good years, the capital adequacy ratio calculated in the recession period is low, and supervision can reduce the capital requirement and make it low. How to reverse the method is still under study, and there is no conclusion. In fact, "counter-cyclical regulation" smoothes the capital level, making it look less high in the boom and less low in the recession.
Second, the government/central bank's tolerance for risks. Unlike western countries, our government/central bank still has strong control over the economy. As soon as the central bank releases non-performing loans, the problem of non-performing loans in banks will be reduced, and as soon as the central bank tightens, the problem of non-performing loans will be exposed. However, the government/central bank's tolerance for risks lies not in the capital level of banks, but in the efficiency of enterprises and the living standards of residents. At present, the benefits of enterprises and the living standard of residents are more fragile than the capital level of banks, that is, before the capital crisis of banks, the benefits of enterprises and the living standard of residents will drop sharply and need to be rescued first.
Third, the competition in the banking industry. After 20 10, the number of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks has greatly increased. Recently, private banks have been approved, and the competition in the banking industry has become more intense and the operational risks have increased.
Fourth, new risks other than credit risk. What is certain is that there will be more and more market risks, off-balance-sheet business risks and interest rate marketization risks squeezing profits in the future. But at present, from the perspective of capital adequacy ratio, their influence is not great.
Finally, it is summarized as follows:
Even in 2000, when China's banking industry was the most difficult and criticized, the bad debts of China's banking industry were estimated to be 25%, which was a historical accumulation formed when it was difficult for banks to write off in time. After 2000, the bank's risk awareness and risk control ability have improved a lot, and it will never be so high in the future. Even if the possibility of debt crisis, including local government debt, shadow bank debt and the impact of the property market crash, will not exceed 10%. Moreover, the tolerance of the government/central bank is not high, and it is necessary to ensure economic growth. City commercial banks, rural commercial banks and private banks with private shares pay more attention to risk control. Therefore, personally, from the definition of "capital required for 99% probability of not going bankrupt in the next year" for risk control, it is enough for China banking industry to guarantee a capital adequacy ratio of 65,438+00%.
However, as long as the growth rate of retained profits can't keep up with the growth rate of scale, the pressure of bank capital adequacy ratio will exist for a long time. Considering the competitive environment in front of banks and the backlog of profits caused by interest rate liberalization, banks will continue to seek funds in the capital market.
From Zhihu.