Theoretically, the benchmark interest rate is inversely proportional to the stock price. According to the existing knowledge, I think this reverse change relationship can be understood from several aspects: first, if the central bank raises the benchmark loan interest rate, financial institutions will also raise the loan interest rate accordingly, which will lead to an increase in financing costs, an increase in liabilities, a decline in profit margins and a deterioration in the company's fundamentals, thus further reducing the price of the company's business card-stock; Secondly, according to the dividend discount model, if the central bank raises the benchmark loan interest rate, financial institutions will also raise the loan interest rate accordingly, so that the necessary rate of return will rise, that is, the discount rate will rise, which will reduce the intrinsic value and share price of stocks. Furthermore, if the central bank raises the benchmark loan interest rate, it will also raise the deposit interest rate. Because there are a large number of risk-averse investors in the market, what they pursue is to maintain and increase the value without risk or with relatively small risk. Therefore, when the interest rate of bank deposits rises, some funds will shift from investing in the stock market to saving banks and buying bonds, which will reduce the demand for stocks in the market and make the stock price fall. If the central bank cuts the benchmark lending rate, the situation is just the opposite. But in China's stock market, the conclusion that the benchmark interest rate moves in the same direction as the stock price is often untenable. Please refer to the table (1) for details.
The time when the central bank adjusted the interest rate and the performance list of the adjusted stock market
frequency
Adjusting time
Adjust the content
Announce the second and third trading days
Stock market performance (Shanghai index)
14
9 June 2008 10
The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits and loans was lowered by 0.27 percentage points.
3.57%↓,3.36%↑
13
September 2008 16
The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was lowered by 0.27 percentage points.
2.90%↓, 1.72%↓
12
65438+February 2, 20071
The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits rose by 0.27 percentage points;
The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was raised by 0. 18 percentage points.
1. 15%↑,2.60%↑
1 1
September 2007
The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was raised by 0.27 percentage points;
The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was raised by 0.27 percentage points.
2.06%↑,0.07%↑
10
August 22(nd), 2007
The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was raised by 0.27 percentage points;
The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was raised by 0. 18 percentage points.
1.49%↑, 1.05%↑
nine
July. 20th meeting in 2007
Raise the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions by 0.27 percentage points.
3.8 1%↑,0.07%↓
eight
May 2007
The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was raised by 0.27 percentage points;
The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was raised by 0. 18 percentage points.
1.04%↑,0.94%↑
seven
March 2007
Raise the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions by 0.27%
2.87%↑,0.59%↑
six
August 2006 19
The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits and loans was raised by 0.27%.
0.20%↑,0.76%↑
five
April 28(th), 2006
The loan interest rate of financial institutions was raised by 0.27% to 5.85%.
1.66%↑,3.95%↑
four
March 2005
Raise the interest rate of housing loans.
0.96%↓, 1.29%↓
three
2004129 October +65438
The one-year deposit and loan interest rate was raised by 0.27%.
1.58%↓, 1. 15%↓
2
1July 993 1 1 day
The interest rate of one-year time deposit is raised from 9. 18% to 10.98%.
2.65%↓,2.90%↑
1
1993 May
The annual interest rate of time deposits of all grades increased by 2.18% on average;
The interest rates of various loans rose by 0.82% on average.
2.53%↓,0.86%↓
Table (1)
As can be seen from the table 1, in the process of China's central bank adjusting the benchmark interest rate for loans, only the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate for the first time 1, the second time, the third time and the fourth time, and the stock price was in a state of decline on the second and third trading days. In other words, the relationship between the benchmark interest rate of central bank loans and the stock price has been well reflected. However, on the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10,1,12, 13 trading days, the relationship of changes in opposite directions was not reflected, that is, the direction of stock price changes was consistent with that of interest rate changes, but it can be seen that, except for the 5th trading day, The change on the 9th and 4th trading days1is the most special because there is no such relationship between the stock price change on the second trading day and the central bank's benchmark loan interest rate, but it is well reflected on the third trading day.
2. The central bank raised the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans by 0.25 percentage points.
The People's Bank of China decided to raise the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions from February 9, 1965. The benchmark interest rates for one-year deposits and loans of financial institutions were raised by 0.25 percentage points respectively, and the benchmark interest rates for other grades were adjusted accordingly (see attached table).
Timetable:
Adjustment table of benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions (unit:%)
The adjusted interest rate 1. Deposit for urban and rural residents and units (1) Current deposit 0.40 (2) Three-month lump-sum deposit 2.60 Half-year 2.80 One-year 3.00 Two-year 3.90 Three-year 4.50 Five-year 5.00 Two-month and six-month loans 5.60 One-year 6.06 One-year 6 6. 10 Three-year 6.45 Five years or more.
3. What is the 0.25 percentage point increase in the benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits and loans of the central bank?
If you deposit 1 10,000 yuan in a time deposit of 1 10,000 yuan, you will have to pay 25 yuan interest if it exceeds 1 year.
4. What is the latest deposit interest rate of China People's Bank?
The People's Bank of China is not a commercial bank and does not handle deposit and loan business. Therefore, PBOC will not launch the latest deposit interest rate in 2022.
The People's Bank of China, referred to as PBOC or the Central Bank, is mainly responsible for financial policy management, preventing and defusing financial risks, issuing RMB, adjusting the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans, and controlling the reserve balance of commercial banks. It can be seen that PBOC does not handle RMB deposits and loans, and will not announce the listing interest rate of RMB deposits.