1. What will be the impact of the four major banks raising first-home loan interest rates in Beijing?

It was recently confirmed that the four major state-owned banks, Industrial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank and China Construction Bank, will raise the interest rates in Beijing starting this week. The minimum interest rate for first-time home loans was raised from 1.05 times to 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate.

From 15% off, 10% off, to "zero discount" on the benchmark interest rate, and now it has risen to 1.1 times? As one of the powerful measures to regulate the property market, the first home loan interest rate in Beijing continues to rise. Not only in Beijing, since last year, first-time home interest rates in popular first- and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Zhengzhou have also generally risen.

The four major banks in Beijing "acted" at the same time, implementing city-specific policies to adapt to the needs of property market regulation

In a recent interview with reporters, ICBC Beijing Branch stated that online signing will be available after May 7 (inclusive) The interest rate for first-time home loans accepted shall not be lower than 1.1 times the People's Bank of China's benchmark interest rate. If the application has been accepted before May 7, the original interest rate policy can be implemented, but it should be completed before May 31.

China Construction Bank Beijing Branch stated that starting from May 7 (inclusive), it will accept new housing loan business, and in principle, the bottom line of first home loan interest rate will be adjusted to 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate. The Agricultural Bank of China and the Bank of China also said that this week they will begin to implement the policy of raising the first home loan interest rate to 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate.

“Whether to implement the policy of increasing interest rates depends on online signing. In the past few days, agents have been working overtime to prepare materials. Those who can sign online should try their best to advance. Home buyers who sign online on the 7th will begin to implement the new credit policy. ." said Mr. Zhang, a real estate agent in Chaoyang District, Beijing.

When will the four major banks raise first-home loan interest rates in Beijing at the same time? Zeng Gang, director of the Banking Research Office of the Institute of Finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that on the one hand, this is the need for banks to adapt to the regulation of the national real estate market. On the other hand, it is also for banks to consider themselves. In the context of rising capital costs and strong corporate credit demand, Allocate resources to areas with higher returns and better liquidity.

Industry insiders pointed out that housing credit policy is an important means of real estate regulation in my country, and the current real estate regulation in hot cities in my country still needs to continue. Taking Beijing as an example, the rebound in second-hand residential transaction volume at the end of last year has continued into this year. Since the beginning of this year, except for the decline in transaction volume due to holiday factors in February, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in January and March has exceeded 10,000 units, reaching 10,400 units and 11,000 units respectively.

“Under the regulatory tone of housing for living and not for speculation, the improvement of long-term mechanisms and the implementation of city-specific policies are still the focus of real estate policies. At present, in addition to the strict implementation of existing purchase restrictions and The tightening of housing loan controls in hotspot cities is expected due to price parity policies," said Zhang Bo, chief analyst of Anjuke.

The reporter learned that before this, the first home loan interest rate of joint-stock banks such as China Everbright, CITIC, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank in Beijing was already 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate. China CITIC Bank stated that the current first-home loan interest rate remains unchanged at 1.1 times.

How much will the interest rate increase cost

The reporter conducted surveys in many hot cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and learned that for home buyers, the increase in loan interest rates means a decrease in the cost of buying a house. Increase. In contrast, some people who just need to buy a house feel that "it will be good if the loan can be approved."

In recent years, first-home loan interest rates in hot cities including Beijing have been rising. According to data from Rong360, the average interest rate for first-time home loans nationwide in March 2018 was 5.51%, equivalent to 1.124 times the benchmark interest rate, an increase of 0.92% from February and an increase of 23.54% year-on-year.

The reporter's investigation found that there are still some banks in Shanghai that offer preferential interest rates for first home loans. However, it is difficult to obtain these discounted interest rates, and the qualification review requirements for lenders are very strict. The first-home loan interest rates of China CITIC Bank and Hang Seng Bank in Shanghai have even increased by 20%. Not only in first-tier cities, but also in second-tier hotspot cities such as Zhengzhou, first-home loan interest rates have generally risen by 10%.

Mr. Li from Beijing recently planned to buy his first home with a mortgage, a commercial loan of 800,000 yuan, and a repayment period of 25 years. According to the equal repayment method of principal and interest, if the interest rate rises by 10% compared with the base interest rate, it will cost about 69,000 yuan more.

"We are in urgent need. We want to buy a house when we get married. Regardless of whether the interest rate is benchmark or rising, the house must be purchased. It will be great if the loan can be approved." Mr. Li said.

The reporter visited major banks in Shenzhen and learned that some banks have slowed down the approval of housing loans.

"It is now more difficult to approve new personal mortgage loans, and there is still a backlog of applications from a few months ago." An account manager of a major state-owned bank in Shenzhen told reporters.

“Due to the requirements of prudential supervision, banks have strengthened the review of loan qualifications and slowed down their lending speed.” Zeng Gang said, “The current market environment has indeed undergone great changes, and the main purpose is to protect rigid needs. Guarantee the supply of its loan scale."

The overall growth rate of housing loans has declined, and support for reasonable demand should be increased.

Since last year, under the background of tightened regulation of the real estate market. , the growth rate of bank mortgages and overall housing-related loans has declined, which is one of the reasons why the housing price growth in some hot cities has slowed down and the market has stabilized. However, analysts pointed out that housing credit should not only help prevent risks and curb bubbles, but also meet residents' reasonable housing purchase needs.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that the current benchmark interest rate is at a relatively low level, and even if it rises by 10%, it will not be as good as the previous historical high. As capital costs continue to rise, subsequent mortgage interest rates are still facing upward pressure.

“Banks should take measures from the aspects of loan limit, interest rate, approval and other aspects to give priority to meeting the demand for owner-occupied and improved housing purchases. Financial management departments should encourage commercial banks to increase support for reasonable housing purchase needs, such as Banks that issue more first-home loans will be given appropriate incentives in terms of deposit reserves and other aspects," said Dong Ximiao, a senior researcher at the Chongyang School of Finance at Renmin University of China.

Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that the People's Bank of China will urge commercial banks to strictly implement differentiated housing credit policies, implement differentiated pricing for housing loans, and actively support residents, especially new citizens, in purchasing housing. Reasonable needs.

In addition, experts said that the interest rate of provident fund loans is lower than that of commercial housing loans, but currently it is necessary to increase support for provident fund loans for those who just need to buy their first home, increase the loan amount, and at the same time simplify the provident fund loan process and increase Penalties for developers who refuse provident fund loans.

The above content comes from: Xinhuanet

2. What impact will rising mortgage interest rates have on people who have already bought a house? What types of loans do you need to buy a house?

Since the beginning of 2018, news has been revealed in many cities including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing, Nanjing, Jinan and other cities that housing loans have tightened and interest rates on first home purchase loans have risen. The effect of financial "deleveraging" is gradually emerging in the real estate industry. Mortgage is one of the most critical indicators affecting the trend of housing prices. Tightened housing loans combined with real estate control policies have a more obvious effect on restraining the rise in housing prices and inhibiting "real estate speculation".

However, in this process, the threshold for buying a house for some buyers who are in urgent need and for improvement has actually risen instead of falling. Chen Lei, a white-collar worker who has worked in Beijing for 11 years, has recently been struggling with whether to change his apartment. "The second-hand house prices in Beijing have indeed dropped a lot since March last year. I want to sell the small house I live in now and buy a house in the school district," Chen Lei said, but now the house exchange counts as a second house, and most houses in Beijing are It is a non-ordinary residence, and the down payment ratio must be at least 80%. In addition, the mortgage policy has also been tightened this year. Many banks’ second home loan interest rates have increased by 20% based on the base interest rate. In this way, even if the wedding house is sold, the loan must be repaid. It is also difficult to move to expensive school district housing.

“House prices have dropped, but it is more difficult to buy a house.” This situation that Chen Lei feels also exists in other cities. Rong360 statistics show that in January 2018, the national average interest rate for first-time home loans was 5.43%, equivalent to 1.11 times the benchmark interest rate, a year-on-year increase of 21.75%. Experts caution that financial supervision across the country will generally become more stringent in 2018, and this "money tight" situation may continue to ferment.

The official has released a clear signal on this. In January, the China Banking Regulatory Commission stated that in 2018, it would work hard to curb residents' leverage ratio, continue to curb the real estate bubble, and seriously investigate and deal with various illegal real estate financing behaviors. Li Xunlei, director and chief economist of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, believes that as regulatory policies continue, the overall property market will be weak in 2018 and sales will experience negative growth.

But he is still optimistic about the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area and the Hangzhou Bay Area. The transaction data during the Spring Festival also seems to indicate that the second- and third-tier property markets are still hot. According to statistics from the Research Center, an industry research institution, during the Spring Festival this year, the real estate market in key monitored cities fell into a "freeze period", with transaction volume falling by as much as 90% month-on-month. However, driven by factors such as returning home to buy properties, the property market transaction volume in 29 second- and third-tier cities during the Spring Festival increased by 46% year-on-year.

The real estate market in Suzhou, Fuzhou and other places continues to be hot. Many benchmark real estate companies have launched "Spring Festival rush" sales in non-first-tier cities. A real estate analyst pointed out that during the 2018 Spring Festival, real estate transactions in most third- and fourth-tier cities were more active than in previous years, which sent a signal that the main support for the national property market this year still comes from third- and fourth-tier cities. In 2017, the unexpected prosperity of the third- and fourth-tier property markets pushed China's commercial housing sales data to a new high. That year, the sales share of the real estate market in third- and fourth-tier cities increased to 64%.

3%. The report believes that high-scale monetized housing reform was an important driving force for the recovery of the third- and fourth-tier property markets last year. In the next three years, the high-scale effects of housing reform will continue. Cities with housing reform plans may gain access to large real estate companies and Homebuyers focus. Although buying a house is not easy, the good news is that with the growth of the rental market and more and more policy support, buying a house is not the only way to solve problems such as going to school and settling in.

At present, a large number of products including long-term rental apartments are emerging. Real estate leasing is developing and improving at an unprecedented speed, and leasing-related supporting policies are also being implemented rapidly. For example, Guangzhou’s 2018 Legislative Work Deployment Mobilization Meeting revealed that it plans to provide legal clarification and protection for “equal rights to purchase and rent”. With the growth of the number of people renting houses, the demand for buying houses, especially in megacities, may be significantly diverted.

Liu Yang, who returned to work in Shenzhen after four years of overseas assignment, told a China News Service reporter that he does not plan to buy a house this year. He lives in a long-term rental apartment very close to the company. The monthly rent is 2,000 yuan. The lease is stable and life is relatively convenient. He and his girlfriend plan to get married this year and have no plans to buy a house yet.

3. What impact will the increase in first-home loan interest rates have on home buyers

The increase in first-home loan interest rates will indeed have a negative impact on those who just need to buy a house. Mainly because the cost of home buyers has increased significantly, it has become more difficult to buy a house, and the monthly payment has not changed much.

For those who have already taken out a loan to buy a house, the increase in housing loans on the market will not have an impact. The most important thing that affects mortgage loans is the base interest rate. If the base interest rate changes, the mortgage loan for home buyers will change accordingly. For example, if the base interest rate rises from 4.9% to 5.0%, then the mortgage interest rate for home buyers will be 5.0% multiplied by the original rate. discount.

Rising interest rates and down payments will undeniably increase the pressure on immediate needs, but this process will also have a similar impact on investors and even speculators. It will correspondingly reduce the intensity of the real estate market and is also a means for the government to regulate real estate.

The current rate of increase in first-time mortgage interest rates tends to decline, indicating that the rate of increase has slowed down and that mortgage interest rates will also tend to reach a reasonable range in the future.

4. How much have the four major banks raised the interest rates on first-home loans in Beijing?

Yesterday, we learned from the Beijing branches of four major state-owned banks, ICBC, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China, that starting from next Monday or Tuesday, they will set the first-home loan interest rate in Beijing to 1.1 times the central bank’s benchmark interest rate. Execution, the second set, is still a 20% increase in the benchmark interest rate. Previously, the first-home loan interest rates of the four major banks in Beijing were all 1.05 times the benchmark interest rate.

Events

Next week from the four major banks

Relevant personnel from the Beijing Branch of ICBC confirmed to a reporter from Beiqing Daily yesterday that online signatures will be issued after May 7 (inclusive) And the bank's base interest rate is 1.1 times. For applications accepted before May 7, the original interest rate policy can be implemented, but the application should be completed before May 31. The interest rate policy for second home loans remains unchanged.

The Beijing branches of other major banks also said that they will start to raise first-home loan interest rates next week, but the implementation dates are slightly different. ICBC and China Construction Bank will start on May 7, while Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China will start on May 8. The Bank of Communications, which is also a major state-owned bank, did not follow the four major banks in raising the price this time, and the Bank of Communications' first home loan policy has not changed for the time being.

Costs increase further. If calculated based on a loan of 1 million yuan with a term of 25 years, the monthly payment will increase from 5933.03 yuan when the base interest rate was 1.05 times to 6075.4 yuan, an increase of 141.73 yuan.

In fact, with the intensification of real estate regulation and the continued rise of bank capital costs, in the past two years, Beijing’s subway rates have risen, from 15% to 9% of the benchmark interest rate to 9% or more. 1.1 times. Since the second half of last year, joint-stock banks in Beijing have been raising first-home loan interest rates by 10% from the benchmark interest rate. By the end of February this year, the interest rates for first-time home loans in Beijing had risen by 5% from 5 banks and some joint-stock banks such as China Merchants Bank, with a few even reaching 20%-3

Previously, Beijing Mortgage interest rates from major regional banks are generally low, with moderate increases, and interest rates from major banks are no longer cheap. Industry insiders said that banks have also followed suit by raising first-home loan interest rates.

Analysis

Mortgage loans are still in the era of low interest rates

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that from the macro environment and capital cost and other factors, coupled with the general trend Above, the four major banks collectively raised this time

Some people in the industry pointed out that although mortgage interest rates have been rising in the past year or two, since the current benchmark interest rate is at a historical low, even a 10% increase is Less than previous historical highs. According to his calculations, the average execution interest rate for first home loans in recent years has been around 6%, so the current housing loan period is still in an era of low interest rates.

As for the changing trend of national mortgage loans in 2018, experts generally believe that an increase in interest rates is a high probability event. Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, once pointed out that on the one hand, banks need to cooperate with the general trend of real estate market regulation and tightening supervision. On the other hand, from the perspective of banks themselves, loan quotas are currently tight and loan demand is relatively strong. Banks are willing to allocate assets with higher returns when allocating assets. Regarding the term structure of loan assets, banks also tend to favor short-term assets in consideration of liquidity. As a result, personal mortgage loans have no advantage in terms of price, term, and national policies. Although the basic interest rate of personal mortgage loans has increased, it is still not comparable to the corporate financing interest rate.

The above content comes from: Beiqing Daily