At present, the excessive growth of real estate investment and the substantial rise in real estate prices have developed into unhealthy factors that affect the stable and rapid growth of the national economy. Therefore, strengthening the regulation of the real estate market has become an important aspect of macroeconomic regulation and control. Task. In order to understand the source of real estate investment funds, we conducted a special investigation and analysis of the sources and changes of real estate investment funds since the beginning of 2001.
Basic situation
For a long time, direct financing channels for real estate in my country have been narrow. According to statistics, since the beginning of 2002, only 61 domestic real estate companies have achieved listing financing, with a total financing amount of only about 8 billion yuan. Real estate corporate bonds have not been issued since 2000, and a small amount of the original bonds have been redeemed. The funds within the national budget are only over 1 billion yuan each year. After 2003, with the national macro-control on the scale of real estate credit, the growth of real estate loans slowed down, and real estate companies began to seek new financing channels. For example, institutional investors began to participate in real estate investment, real estate funds began to operate, and trust funds began to enter real estate. industry, overseas financing is also developing rapidly. At present, because real estate funds have just started, the trust funds invested in real estate are less than 30 billion yuan, and the direct financing ratio of the real estate industry does not exceed 2. Therefore, my country's real estate investment funds are still mainly bank loans, while social funds for the purpose of investment and speculation and Overseas hot money has also become an important source of funds driving the rapid growth of real estate investment in the past two years.
Proportion of domestic bank loans
From the domestic and international situation, bank loans generally account for about 60% of the sources of real estate investment funds, which is a significant feature of the development of the real estate industry. In my country, bank loans in the real estate industry mainly include land reserve loans, real estate development loans and housing mortgage loans in the sales process. Most of developers' self-raised funds and project advances also come indirectly from bank loans. The specific performance is as follows:
The proportion of direct loans from domestic banks has dropped significantly. Direct loans are represented by real estate development loans and personal home purchase loans. From 2001 to 2003, the proportion of real estate development loans in real estate investment has remained at around 20; home purchase loans, mainly personal mortgage loans, have developed steadily, and their proportion in real estate investment has increased from 25 to 28.3. In 2004, due to The state has implemented controls on real estate land and loans. At the same time, the non-performing rate of personal consumer credit has begun to rise. Commercial banks have raised standards for housing consumer loans. The growth of real estate loans has slowed down. The proportion of real estate development loans and home purchase loans in real estate investment has declined. , 16.6 and 24.3 respectively. In the first quarter of this year, due to the large number of reserve projects in the previous year, investment in real estate loans increased, and the proportion of real estate development loans in real estate investment reached 19. The cancellation of the preferential interest rate policy for housing mortgage loans has a greater impact on real estate consumer loans, and home purchase loans The proportion of real estate investment funds dropped to 17.3. The total proportion of real estate development loans and home purchase loans in real estate investment funds was 43.6, 48.1, 49.4, and 40.9 respectively from 2001 to 2004. At the end of March this year, it was 36.3. The proportion of direct bank loans in the real estate market has shown a significant downward trend since the beginning of 2003.
Part of the self-raised funds of real estate enterprises comes indirectly from bank loans. The proportion of self-raised funds by real estate enterprises has increased year by year, from 24.1 in 2001 to 27.4 at the end of 2004. By the end of March this year, it had reached 30.1, an increase of 6 percentage points. For many years, real estate companies have had insufficient self-owned funds. In order to meet the state's requirements for the proportion of self-owned funds in real estate projects, they have resorted to various flexible methods to obtain bank loans to use as their own funds, especially in the past two years. The requirement has been raised to 35, and real estate companies have used methods such as loans from affiliated companies, misappropriation of funds for projects that have been started, borrowing from companies outside the province, and reinvesting sales proceeds to piece together their own funds. According to the survey data, since the beginning of 2004, the proportion of bank loans in real estate investment funds among the self-raised funds of real estate enterprises has increased from about 8 in the past to about 9 at present.
The payables of real estate companies are mainly bank loans. The payables of real estate companies mainly include the project payments owed by real estate development companies to construction units and material payments from suppliers. The investigation found that it is common practice in the industry for real estate companies to default on project and material payments, and the defaulted payments are mainly bank loans obtained by construction units and suppliers through various channels. Therefore, 60% of the payables of real estate companies actually come from bank loans. As the corporate credit environment continues to improve, the proportion of real estate companies' payables in real estate investment has been declining year by year, and the proportion of bank loans in real estate investment funds in payables has also declined accordingly, from about 9 in 2001 to about 6 in 2004. , 7.5 in the first quarter of this year.
Social funds actively participate in real estate investment
Social funds mainly include: participating in real estate development in the form of direct investment and becoming a part of the real estate developer’s own funds; converting it in the form of house purchase money Funding for real estate development; raised by real estate companies at high profits to enter the real estate market. The specific performance is as follows:
Equity financing part - At this stage, very few of the self-owned funds of real estate companies have been allocated by the finance and competent authorities. They are mainly the initial investment of corporate investors and the funds accumulated in the development process. profits, and equity financing. Real estate development companies are mostly private enterprises with small registered capital and profit accumulation, and their own funds are mainly equity financing. Since the beginning of 2001, the proportion of self-owned funds in real estate investment funds has gradually increased. Especially since the beginning of 2004, the proportion of self-owned funds of real estate enterprises has increased significantly, from 13.5 in 2003 to 15 in 2004, the first this year. The quarterly ratio increased by 1.9 percentage points from 2004 to 16.9. According to surveys, the new self-owned funds of real estate companies in the past two years are mainly social funds for investment purposes. At present, equity financing of real estate enterprises accounts for 15.2% of real estate investment funds, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from 2001.
The proportion of bank loans in the cash house purchase part of real estate companies’ “deposits and advances” has dropped significantly in the past two years, which means that a large number of house buyers mainly buy houses in cash and have obvious motivations for real estate speculation. Since commercial banks in some cities do not offer remortgage business or do not allow loans to outsiders, and the real estate registration department requires that bank loans must be repaid when a house is sold, buyers who intend to speculate on real estate mostly buy houses in cash, and cash for house purchases accounts for a large proportion of the real estate. The proportion of investment funds has risen rapidly, reaching 14.6 in 2004, an increase of 8.8 percentage points from 2003, and was 13.2 in the first quarter of this year.
Other funds - According to statistics, the proportion of real estate investment funds including social funds, personal funds, funds allocated by other units and other sources of funds is on a downward trend. In 2004, it was the lowest at 6. It was 6.8 in the first quarter.
In general, it is estimated that at present, about 35% of real estate investment funds come from social funds.
Foreign capital joins the development and speculation of the real estate market
Foreign capital’s participation in my country’s real estate market involves all aspects of development, intermediary and sales, mainly overseas real estate investment funds and venture capital funds, as well as A large amount of personal funds are concentrated in hot spots such as the capital economic circle and the Yangtze River Delta through direct purchase of real estate, project cooperation, and direct equity participation in real estate companies. According to the survey, the proportion of foreign funds directly flowing into Shanghai's real estate market has been rising year by year, from 16 in 2001 to more than 30 now. Since the beginning of this year, foreign investment in real estate projects in Beijing has exceeded 3 billion yuan. According to survey analysis, the proportion of overseas investment entering the Chinese real estate market in real estate investment funds is approximately 5%.
Main issues
The proportion of bank loans in current real estate investment funds is declining year by year and is lower than the international average; the proportion of social funds is increasing year by year, and the investment and speculation components are getting heavier . Therefore, the main reason for the excessive growth of real estate investment and excessive rise in housing prices in our country is not bank credit, but the profit-seeking behavior of domestic and foreign investors and speculators. The reason behind this is the local government's lack of control over land leasing and real estate development. caused by deviations in policy orientation.
The specific manifestations are as follows:
1. Some places lack a scientific outlook on development, over-expand urban construction, and promote real estate investment. Accelerating urban construction and developing the real estate industry should be said to be the objective requirements of my country's current economic and social development. However, in this regard, some places are blindly expanding regardless of objective conditions. First, local governments at all levels use the revenue from paid land transfer as "secondary finance" to invest in urban construction. In 2002, the national market-oriented land allocation revenue reached 96.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5 times compared with 1999; land value-added tax revenue was 2.1 billion yuan, an increase of more than 3 times compared with 1999. In 2003, the area of ??land allocated by the market in my country increased 51 times compared with 1999, and the proportion of land transfer revenue in local fiscal revenue increased year by year. Due to the large scale of real estate investment and quick results, it has a significant stimulating effect on related industries and is a pillar industry. The higher the housing prices and the more high-end housing, the greater the increase in local fiscal revenue and the faster the GDP growth. For this reason, on the one hand, many local governments have stepped up land acquisition and supply to expand the scale of the real estate industry; on the other hand, through development planning, product structure, pre-sale approval, etc., they have acquiesced and supported the upgrading of commercial housing and allowed real estate developers to Run luxury housing projects to drive people to the suburbs. In terms of land reserves and operations, financing costs and investment considerations are not connected, giving rise to great debt repayment default risks. Second, there is no cost and profit accounting for pricing of commercial housing. Pricing is completely liberalized. Basically, real estate developers are free to set housing prices at whatever price they quote. In some places, in order to raise regional standards, the government even makes it easier for developers to set housing prices higher. Obtain pre-sale license phenomenon. Third, in order to invigorate the market, there are no restrictions on real estate speculation by outsiders and acquiescence in raising housing prices.
2. Some real estate development companies have joined forces with local governments to adopt non-market means to pursue high profits and raise housing prices. The high profit returns of the real estate industry have prompted the rapid expansion of real estate development companies. In 2004, there were more than 50,000 real estate development companies, an increase of more than 20,000 than in 2001, and an increase of more than 10,000 than in 2003. Real estate development companies often join forces with local governments to dominate the real estate market order. The main manifestations are: first, expansion at low cost or without capital. Real estate companies generally lack self-owned funds. Since commercial banks have no effective means to accurately identify the source and investment methods of corporate funds, real estate developers generally raise funds through alternative methods such as off-plan housing and working capital loans, and confuse self-raised funds with their own funds. , or avoid the proportion management of own funds by falsely increasing capital reserves, spinning off projects, borrowing from other places and registering them in the form of capital funds. Second, the qualifications are poor, product quality is difficult to guarantee, and there are many market complaints. The asset-liability ratio of real estate companies is relatively high, with an average of more than 70. There are few high-quality companies and most of them are third-level qualified companies. The third is to cash out through fake mortgages. Since corporate loan interest rates are higher than retail mortgage loan rates, developers use insiders or affiliated companies to cash out through fake mortgages to reduce costs. The fourth is to publish false property sales information and join forces to inflate housing prices. Since the beginning of 2004, the property market has entered a state where developers determine the market and set prices freely. Large real estate companies have gradually formed price alliances in the common pursuit of maximizing profits.
3. Speculation and investment hype have pushed up housing prices to a large extent. Real estate demand includes real demand, investment demand and speculative demand. At present, my country's social capital investment channels are narrow. The growing domestic investment funds and the continuous influx of overseas speculative funds, coupled with the expectation of RMB appreciation, are crowding into the real estate market in hot cities. The proportion of domestic social funds and overseas funds in real estate investment funds has reached an average level. Exceeding 40 has become an important factor in promoting the rapid growth of real estate investment and housing prices. Where investment and speculation are strong, real estate prices will fluctuate greatly. For example, after the Ministry of Construction and other seven ministries and commissions issued opinions on stabilizing real estate prices, housing prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities with the fastest rising housing prices in recent years have fallen sharply, while housing prices in central and western cities such as Changchun, Nanchang, Lanzhou and Yinchuan have remained unchanged. big.
From the perspective of funding situation, the proportion of bank loans in real estate investment funds in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities has dropped rapidly since the beginning of 2003, and is currently around 44. At the same time, the proportion of social funds and foreign investment has increased rapidly, with the proportion of foreign investment nearly 12; Changchun The proportion of bank loans in real estate investment funds in other cities has shown stable and reasonable changes, and is still around 60%. This further shows that investment and speculative funds are the main factors driving the excessive growth of real estate investment and housing prices.
Policy recommendations
The construction of the real estate market should adhere to the scientific concept of development and promote the establishment of a harmonious society. The first is to change the current situation in which local governments rely mainly on land transfer revenue for their finances and curb their impulse to develop real estate. Real estate development will occupy a large amount of land. In 2004, construction occupied 2.178 million acres of cultivated land nationwide, most of which was high-quality and high-yielding farmland around residential areas. At present, my country's per capita cultivated land area is 1.41 acres, 0.18 acres less than in 2003, and only one-third of the world's per capita area. Land is the most basic natural resource on which human beings depend for survival. It is limited and its use must comply with the requirements of sustainable development. The second is to adjust the real estate supply structure according to different levels of demand and maintain a balance between supply and demand. At present, real estate investment is mainly concentrated in mid-to-high-priced real estate, and the proportion of investment in low- to medium-priced and small- and medium-sized residences is low and showing a downward trend. In the first quarter of this year, the national investment in affordable housing fell by 13.8% year-on-year, and some cities even stopped building affordable housing. , on the one hand, this has caused a large number of high-end housing to be vacant, and on the other hand, it has been difficult to meet the reasonable needs of the residents. Since housing itself has the attributes of a public product, ensuring residents' minimum living requirements is a reflection of human rights protection, an unshirkable responsibility of the government, and a prerequisite for building a harmonious society. Therefore, it is necessary to rationally adjust the land and capital supply structure, use taxation and other means to actively guide housing consumption, curb speculation and investment demand, and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry