As Ren Zeping, the chief economist of Founder Securities, said: China's CPI is nearly 2%, and the one-year deposit interest rate is 1.5%, while China's interest rate is already negative.
how is the negative interest rate generated?
since the financial crisis in 28, in order to cope with the Great Depression of the world economy, the Federal Reserve, the leading brother of the world central bank, started a series of quantitative easing tides. On the one hand, it frantically printed money to stimulate the economy and release water to the economy, on the other hand, it lowered interest rates again and again. Following the Federal Reserve, five countries, including the euro zone (June 214), Japan (February 216), Switzerland (January 215), Sweden (February 215) and Denmark (July 212) all took the lead in realizing negative interest rate operation. After Brexit, on August 4th, the Bank of England announced that it would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and then Australia began to cut interest rates. It can be said that low interest rates and negative interest rates have become the mainstream of the world currency.
Of course, in this respect, China is still relatively cautious. In order not to cause too much impact on the economy, China's two broadswords of interest rate reduction and RRR reduction have not been frequently used. However, compared with our CPI, that is, the consumer price index, we have already lived in an era of negative interest rates. At this time, putting money in the bank may be in a state of daily loss. I am afraid that the interest rate of putting money in the balance treasure is only a little better than that in the bank.
what impact does negative interest rate have on our life?
First, holding cash means turning money into paper.
Do you remember that in 213, when Yu 'ebao was the most prosperous, Yu 'ebao, which just came out, won the favor of most people with its annualized rate of return close to 5%. It can be said that Yu 'ebao at that time was the leader in cash wealth management products, and you could have the liquidity to use money at any time and the capital income far higher than that of banks. But three years later, we see that the current Yu 'ebao has only a profit level of about 2.3%, which is really a bit embarrassing. Yu 'ebao can be said to be the epitome of China's negative interest rate. In this era of negative interest rate, the worst thing is the people who hold cash in their hands or deposit it in the bank. They can be said to have borne the depreciation of their money by themselves.
Second, financial management has become a kind of difficulty
In 215, when P2P is the most prosperous, it seems that financial products with a yield of more than 1% can be seen everywhere in the market. Although there are various risks, there are also risk events like e-rental and Pan Asia, but it has to be said that financial management in 215 is a relatively easy era. At that time, the regular income of similar P2P products such as Zhaocaibao was around 6%, and this kind of financial products with little risk could also guarantee a relatively good income level. However, after entering the era of negative interest rate, property gradually shrank, and residents began to move their bank deposits into wealth management products. However, the yield in the wealth management market is still extremely low, with an average income of only about 4%. More than 5% of the products have become rare and protected animals. Moreover, with the greater pressure of the People's Bank of China to cut interest rates and reduce the RRR, the decline in the income of wealth management products will become a long-term trend.
Third, the real estate market has become the biggest winner
Since the beginning of this year, we have seen rounds of skyrocketing real estate market. The price increase in first-and second-tier cities has exceeded most people's imagination, and many white-collar workers who have not bought a house lament that the hard work for several years after the price increase has been in vain, which is equivalent to working for the house for several years. One of the main reasons for the skyrocketing housing prices is the negative interest rate. Because money is getting less and less valuable, residents are reluctant to deposit. In order to avoid the shrinking of their wealth, in the market development of China for more than 2 years, only real estate has maintained a relatively stable ratio of maintaining and increasing the value, so it seems that there is nowhere to go for the extra funds except real estate. However, this kind of investment also has its pertinence, so we see that first-and second-tier cities with high economic foundation and development potential have become the main force of housing price increase, and third-and fourth-tier cities are more difficult to benefit in the era of negative interest rates in today's economic downturn.
Negative interest rate has become a disaster for wage earners
In the era of negative interest rate, in fact, the affluent class should be the least affected. Most of their income comes from capital gains, and their liabilities are generally high. Therefore, the impact of negative interest rate is the least. However, it is the wage earners who are most affected. Because their main source of income is wage income, their lives are often determined by their wages, which means that it is difficult for them to increase their income through sufficient capital means. In the state of negative interest rate, the income gap between them and the high-income groups will become larger and larger, their disposable income will gradually decrease, their consumption power will gradually decrease, and their living standards will inevitably enter a downward stage.
And with the expectation of further interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, the willingness of wage earners to make high-risk investments will decline. At this time, for wage earners, their assets will inevitably enter the downward channel, and poverty seems to be just around the corner.
disaster is just around the corner. how can we avoid it?
Speaking of this, we need to enter a most difficult problem, because in such a state, how to prevent money from turning into paper, in fact, there is really no good answer, and we can only give some suggestions in a trend, for reference only:
First, homeowners can relax a little
In the era of negative interest rates, people who owe the bank money may be the happiest, while for wage earners, they owe the bank money the most. At this time, the biggest advice I can give you is never to repay the loan in advance, because negative interest rate means that your loan is in a state of substantial continuous reduction. Therefore, for those who have loans, loans can effectively hedge some negative interest rate shocks.
Second, part of the choice of safe-haven assets
Besides loans, there is also an effective means to maintain and increase the value by finding safe-haven assets. For ordinary families, the relatively stable safe-haven assets are gold and US dollars, in view of the high probability of RMB depreciation in the future. Therefore, it is one of the effective ways to maintain and increase the value of gold or dollar assets at this time.
Third, the choice of monetary assets allocation for conservative investors
For more conservative investors, we can consider allocating monetary assets to a certain extent. As mentioned above, the monetary foundation of Yu 'ebao has about 2.5% income, and the bank financing will have 4% income. Even if these relatively stable income can't increase in value, at least try to preserve the value and find peace of mind.
Fourth, invest more in yourself
Facing the era of negative interest rate, it may be a lifestyle choice to improve life through consumption on the premise of ensuring daily expenses and future reserves such as pension, medical care and children's education. Many people think that in such a big background, money is their own thing after it is spent. In such a big environment, saving money will become poorer and poorer. If you can borrow money for buying a house or a car, it is far more appropriate to borrow money than to save money.
on the other hand, the biggest way to preserve and increase value in this era is to invest in yourself, and everything will change. Only by increasing your own strength and ability will it not change. Learning and investing in yourself to improve your strength may be the only way to deal with all future changes.