The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald learned that with the opening of Shanghai-Chengdu Passenger Dedicated Line and Xiamen-Shenzhen Passenger Dedicated Line at the end of this year, most of the major "four vertical and four horizontal" passenger passages in China, such as Beijing-Guangzhou, Beijing-Shanghai, Shanghai-Rong, Jinghua and Southeast Coastal Passenger Dedicated Lines, have been opened to traffic, while Shanghai-Kunming has entered the track-laying stage and is expected to open next year.
How many railways, airports and expressway will be used to stimulate investment the year after next year has become an important issue.
According to the Blue Book released by China Academy of Social Sciences in February 10, the investment growth rate in 20 14 will continue to decline compared with 20 13. It is estimated that the actual investment growth rate may be only 18.5%, which is lower than this year's 19.2%.
The average annual growth rate of investment in the first three years of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period is only about 20%, which is 5 percentage points lower than the average growth rate of 25% in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. Therefore, in 20 14 years, the country still needs to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, especially to maintain the reasonable growth of investment.
Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative Studies of China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the average annual growth rate of investment in the future may gradually decline. In this process, we should maintain a reasonable growth in investment. 20 14 in view of the uncertainties in the external environment and the rising domestic comprehensive cost, China should continue to implement the development strategy of expanding domestic demand and driving innovation. "This is also China's medium and long-term development strategy." He said.
On the same day, the annual Central Economic Work Conference was held, and work arrangements will be made for 20 14.
According to the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee working conference on February 3, 20 14, we will continue to adhere to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability and promote reforms in all fields and links of economic and social development. We will continue to adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand, accelerate the cultivation of new consumption growth points, focus on optimizing the consumption environment, promote rational investment growth and structural optimization, and improve investment management and service levels.
The policy of expanding domestic demand will be launched on 20 14.
According to the forecast of some institutions, the domestic investment and consumption demand in 20 14 years will be lower than that in 20 13 years.
According to the judgment of China Academy of Social Sciences, the actual growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods in 20 14 is expected to be 1 1.3%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than this year.
Therefore, 20 14 "Blue Book of China Economy" holds that the investment growth rate will decline in the next few years due to the high investment base and the decline in potential economic growth rate. At present, steady growth still requires steady investment.
The reporter learned that the growth rate of investment has declined in recent years because there is limited investment space for infrastructure such as railways, airports and highways in the future, except for overcapacity in most industrial sectors.
For example, there are only a few areas such as Xuzhou to Zhengzhou and Qingdao to Shijiazhuang. , has not yet been built. The trunk line of the passenger dedicated line is thousands of kilometers long, and only the Shanghai-Kunming Railway, which will be opened to traffic next year, is currently in the track-laying stage.
Statistics also show that during the period of 1- 1, the national railway infrastructure investment was 383.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Compared with the year-on-year growth of 25.7% during1-June, it dropped sharply.
The National Information Center also gave a similar judgment. The center believes that the foreign trade situation in 20 14 is optimistic, and the contribution of foreign trade to the economy is expected to be 0. 1 percentage point.
However, domestic consumption and investment demand will be even more worrying next year. The reason is that in the past 1 year, the income growth rate of urban residents has not been as good as GDP, which is very unfavorable for supporting consumption next year.
The contribution rate of 20 14 consumption to economic growth will definitely not exceed 3.5 percentage points this year, and it is predicted to drop to 3.3 percentage points.
In terms of investment, due to the reform of national interest rate marketization, the investment cost has risen, and it is expected that the investment growth rate will also slow down, especially in the investment field of the real economy, and the demand is not strong. This year, the cumulative investment growth rate is 20%, and it may drop to 17% next year.
Fan Jianping, chief economist of the National Information Center, pointed out earlier that on the one hand, the country is eliminating backward production capacity, and the long-term technical reserves of new growth points are insufficient. If resource prices remain high, it will be difficult to increase investment substantially next year. Even real estate investment in third-tier cities has shrunk. "The investment prospect of 20 14 should be very worrying."
However, an expert also believes that although the overall investment in four vertical and four horizontal railways will be completed next year, all localities are reserving new investments, such as railway investment in the central and western regions.
At present, three railways in Xinjiang have started construction of 20 14 with a total investment of 62.3 billion yuan, including Ejina-Hami Railway, Jiangjunmiao-Hami Railway and Korla-Golmud Railway. Previously, the planned investment of Xinjiang Railway was 20 1 10, 20 12 and 201600 million yuan,1294 million yuan and 16876 million yuan respectively, showing an accelerated growth trend.
The investment focus will be partially changed.
However, Li Xuesong believes that in 20 14 years, the state has some new features in ensuring the reasonable growth of investment.
For example, this can take the opportunity of manufacturing gradient transfer and industrial undertaking to increase investment in high-end manufacturing industries in the central and western regions, especially some strategic emerging industries and service industries with demand.
In addition, we can take the opportunity of promoting new urbanization to strengthen urban infrastructure investment. In 20 14, the central government will launch a national plan for new urbanization. In addition, we should take the market-oriented reform as an opportunity to optimize the investment subjects and maximize the use of private investment.
He believes that in 20 14, the state will strictly manage local government debts, but private investment can enter urban infrastructure investment in the form of franchising. "Because the government will adopt the negative list system of investment in 20 14 years, private investment can enter more fields." He said.
According to the report of China Academy of Social Sciences, in 20 14, the country launched a new urbanization strategy, and there was a large space for private investment in the fields of rail transit, greening and security, gas water supply and sewage treatment.
Among them, first-tier cities have great demand for rail transit. In addition to rail transit, the eastern cities also have a strong demand for the construction of smart cities, such as energy-saving buildings, the improvement of road pipe network and garbage and sewage treatment, intelligent transportation, intelligent medical care, and the construction of intelligent pipe network.
In addition, taking the opportunity of manufacturing gradient transfer and industrial undertaking to increase investment in high-end manufacturing in the central and western regions can also become the new focus of 20 14 investment. In this regard, the establishment of some high-end manufacturing bases in the west is conducive to the formation of a sound industrial value chain.
65438+February 10 held a central economic work conference, and it is expected that the policy of expanding domestic demand will be discussed within three days. It is expected that the meetings of the National Development and Reform Commission in June 5438+February 15 and June 5438+06 will make in-depth arrangements for this. Earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a symposium on the adjustment and industrial transfer of key industries in the western region on June 30 165438, and listened to the opinions of all localities on the Guiding Opinions on the Adjustment and Industrial Transfer of Key Industries drafted by NDRC. The western provinces are striving for some high-end manufacturing industries to land in the local area to increase the investment pace of manufacturing industries.
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