As the title says, the phenomenon of large-scale mortgage default will inevitably lead to the central bank's introduction of relevant policies to postpone, postpone and reduce the mortgage, and slow down the phenomenon of large-scale mortgage default. It is conceivable that if there is a large-scale supply failure, it will inevitably be an economic problem or other irreversible problems. In this case, banks will also have corresponding policies to implement, mostly slow loans.
Of course, if there is a large-scale mortgage default, it is not a problem of the market, but a problem of mortgage demanders. Then, the bank will go through the relevant formalities according to the relevant contract. The first is to contact the mortgage lender to understand the relevant issues, and the bank also has corresponding extension policies. Secondly, if the lender still has no funds to repay after the extension, and repeated reminders are unsuccessful. Finally, the bank will sue the lender through prosecution, then auction the property, repay the repayment funds of the bank, and leave the rest to the head of the household.
In 2008, a large-scale mortgage default occurred in the United States, and a real estate bubble also occurred in Japan, although it happened in major economies in history. However, it does not happen every year, but only when the economy is at a major turning point. Usually, large-scale mortgage defaults are accompanied by economic recession and depression.
The relevant response of the bank will still be judged according to the situation. If it is in an economic crisis or an irreversible event, the bank's response will be to slow down the loan, slow down the loan and postpone it. After all, even if the mortgage is recovered, it will not be sold through the court. But in the case of non-economic crisis and irreversible events, it is often implemented in accordance with the company's articles of association.
Regarding the purchase and mortgage, it is still necessary to suit yourself and choose to buy a house when there is a long-term mortgage. Otherwise, it will be very troublesome to meet a broken confession. If there is a large-scale mortgage default, there may be adjustments and banks may postpone it. However, in case of individual circumstances, the bank will implement it according to the articles of association.
Whether it is a large-scale or individual situation, there will be the following process:
1. If the buyer fails to repay the loan within the first month, the bank will call the buyer to inform you that it is overdue and urge him to repay the loan.
2. If there is still no repayment after urging, and the loan is still overdue in the second month, the bank's credit staff will come to the door or go directly to their unit for dunning.
3. In the third month, if the buyer still fails to repay, the bank will send a lawyer's letter and enter the judicial process. Once in the judicial process, it also means that the buyer's house will be auctioned.
Mortgage default will also bring many adverse consequences to buyers:
1. Penalty interest
There will be a penalty interest after loans overdue, and the interest rate is very high. Even if the buyers make up the loan later, they still have to face the penalty interest of the bank. The amount of penalty interest is clearly stipulated in the loan contract signed by the buyer and the bank.
2. Suffer economic losses
In fact, being punished for short-term breach of contract is not too serious. If the breach of contract is serious and you don't pay it back, you may suffer even greater losses. If the buyer fails to repay the mortgage for six months in a row, the bank will apply to the court to auction the buyer's house. The cost of the house auction should be used to repay the loan and interest first. If it is not enough to repay, it needs to continue to compensate. At this time, the loss will be even greater. Not only is the house gone, but the money is gone, and even the down payment and tax paid before are gone.
3. Affect the buyer's credit information.
The interruption of supply will affect the buyer's credit information, and some people think that it doesn't matter if you don't pay compensation after a short-term default. If you don't repay for a long time, you may be blacklisted and become an old lai, which will have an impact on the buyer's travel and work.
Therefore, if it is not a special case, we must be careful not to cut off the supply. If it is possible to cut off the supply, you can also apply to the loan bank in advance to inform the situation, and the bank will help propose a solution.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008 was a financial crisis caused by mortgage default.
Due to the increasing pressure of economic recession in the United States after 9 1 1, the manufacturing industry is gradually shifting to China, Indian and other developing countries. The United States even thinks that it can abandon the real economy and only need the financial economy under the hegemony of the dollar to make the United States prosper for a long time. As a financial product, real estate has become the dominant driving force of economy.
A large number of properties are put on the market. When the real estate market was depressed, they began to increase the supply of real estate with zero down payment to groups with poor financial credit, and also packaged these non-performing loans into high-quality derivatives and put them into the financial market. However, as the American economy went from bad to worse, a serious supply crisis finally appeared. However, this default crisis brought the financial crisis of mortgage derivatives, which led to the bankruptcy of hundreds of banks in the United States, including Lehman Brothers, and the bankruptcy of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which triggered the biggest financial crisis in the United States since 193 1 and spread the subprime mortgage crisis to the whole world.
Similarly, there is a mortgage crisis in Japan.
After Japan signed the Plaza Agreement in 1985, in less than two years, the value of Japan increased from 220 yen to 1 USD, more than doubling. Global capital keeps pouring into Japan, the stock market and real estate rise sharply, and the Japanese government keeps adding fuel to the flames, which leads to the serious overvaluation of Japanese assets.
After 1990, international capital began to withdraw after earning a lot of money, and Japan also realized the seriousness of the asset bubble. So the government also began to suppress real estate, the interest rate rose from 1% to 6%, and refused financing loans from real estate enterprises. The real estate market collapsed instantly, the land price fell to 1/3, and the house price also fell by half. Although Japan did not default as much as the United States did, this crisis prevented Japan from recovering in the next 20 years, which is also the most important reason for Japan's recession for 20 years.
Will there be a great default risk in China real estate market?
Since the marketization of real estate was promoted in 2003, real estate has been the most important pillar industry in economic development. During the economic downturn of 20 14, the real estate will once again shoulder the heavy responsibility and promote the fiery real estate through monetary resettlement. From the residents' debt of 65,438+08 trillion in 2065,438+04 to more than 50 trillion in 2065,438+08. Successfully resolved 40 trillion debts of local governments, banks and developers.
China is a country with high savings, and the total deposit of residents has now reached more than 70 trillion. It also exceeded the total amount of residential loans of 50 trillion yuan. Moreover, in recent years, the government has also taken some financial prevention and control measures. The first set of down payment is over 30%, and the second set is as high as 50%. Moreover, this kind of house price is unlikely to have a large area of high-rise diving when the land price is stable, the house price is stable and the expectation is stable. There is no possibility of large-scale supply interruption.
The crisis of China's real estate falling sharply is not the crisis of large-scale supply failure of residents, but the risk of consumption reduction, investment weakening and real estate sales cooling caused by shrinking residents' wealth. Once the land market cools down, local debt, bank debt and real estate enterprise debt will all have problems.
It is not impossible for banks to meet demand on a large scale, but the probability is low. Many years ago, many properties in some areas were out of supply.
The main reason for stopping the supply tide is that the house price has fallen a lot, and the residual value of the house price is much lower than the amount to be repaid compared with the loan to be repaid, which leads buyers to choose to stop supplying.
But from the buyer's point of view, it is very uneconomical to cut off the supply. In addition to mortgaging the house to the bank, the buyer actually has a credit guarantee, that is, in case of default, the bank will not only take away the house, but also sue the buyer for repayment of the remaining arrears, and will also blacklist the buyer in the credit information system.
If the buyer chooses to cut off the supply, the bank will generally choose to negotiate with the buyer, call the buyer to repay the loan in time, and inform the consequences of default, and will not immediately take the house away for auction and sue the buyer. Telephone consultation is useless, and a lawyer's letter will be sent to ask the buyers to fulfill the contract repayment.
Only after many times of communication, buyers still ignore it and refuse to repay it, and then they will take the house away through court prosecution and start the auction of the house. After the house is auctioned, the proceeds from selling the house will be compared with the remaining debts, and then they will decide to sue the investors again to recover the remaining debts.
If the bank encounters a large-scale mortgage default, it will face a huge liquidity crisis in addition to taking the house to recover the loan. Everyone thinks that banks are rich and will not be short of money at all. Everyone is wrong, banks will be short of money and there will be a liquidity crisis. A large number of loans will be cut off and banks will get back a large number of properties, which is a big problem in disguise. We can only seek government assistance or choose quick financing to replenish capital.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and many homebuyers were unable to repay their debts, which led to a liquidity crisis in banks. Without the help of the Federal Reserve, many small and medium-sized banks can only go bankrupt.
Don't worry, it has plenty of ways to force you to pay your debts, even if it forces you to die! Banks always eat people and don't spit bones.
In reality, there has indeed been a large-scale mortgage default. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is near, and the real estate crash in Japan is far away. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has caused a large number of small and medium-sized banks to go bankrupt, and the real estate collapse in the United States and Japan has turned a large number of middle classes into poor people. The banking system has produced a large number of bad debts, and banks with weak resistance can only go bankrupt and liquidate, leading to a large-scale mortgage default, which means that the real estate industry may collapse, which is fatal to the middle class, because many assets of the middle class come from houses, which is unfavorable to people with real estate.
This phenomenon should not happen in China.
Within a few months after the mortgage is cut off, the bank will collect it. After a certain period of time, the bank will call for collection or collect it at home. If the arrears can be paid off, the property will not be repossessed. But if it is not returned within a certain period of time, the bank will repossess the property, and the bank has the right to repossess our property. Because our house is mortgaged to the bank, we can only borrow a mortgage from the bank, so the full name of the current mortgage is mortgage loan.
Then, the property will be auctioned. The properties auctioned by Double 1 1 Alibaba are basically properties that banks fail to supply through the mortgage auctioned by the court. If the proceeds from the real estate auction cannot cover the remaining principal and interest of the mortgage, the bank can only deal with bad debts.
The phenomenon of abandoning houses and cutting off supply rarely occurs in China. Under normal circumstances, in the absence of economic crisis, only individuals buy houses, and the supply will be cut off. In real life, banks usually go through the following process: if the buyer fails to repay the loan for one month, the bank will call the buyer to remind you not to overdue. If you are in loans overdue in the second month, the bank's credit staff will come to ask for it. In the third month, if the buyer still fails to repay the loan, the bank will send a lawyer's letter and enter the judicial process. After the judicial proceedings, the buyer's house will be auctioned by the bank.
If the personal mortgage is lost, it will suffer the following three consequences: first, even if the buyer makes up the loan, the bank will still implement it for the buyer. Penalty interest, and this interest is very high. Usually, when a bank signs a mortgage contract with a mortgage lender, it will clearly stipulate the penalty interest rate that needs to be paid when the mortgage is cut off. However, as long as the previous mortgage is paid off, occasional breach of contract will not affect the credibility of the mortgage lender.
Second, if the individual defaults for more than 6 months, the bank will auction the buyer's house through the court, and the buyer's previous down payment and taxes will be gone. Third, it will affect the credit information of buyers, be blacklisted and become an old lai, which will adversely affect the travel and work of buyers. It will even affect children's education and so on.
If there is a large-scale fear of mortgage, it may be related to the relevant policies issued by the central bank, or the house price plummeted. In fact, there was a large-scale mortgage default in the United States in 2008, and it also happened during the Japanese real estate bubble. During the period of 1997, housing prices in Hong Kong fell, and a large number of mortgage loans were cut off, which had a great impact on the economy and finance at that time. Even at the end of the last century, Hainan's real estate bubble burst, and there was a large-scale foreclosure of real estate speculators.
After a large-scale default occurs, banks usually contact mortgage agencies to understand the situation and whether there are force majeure factors. Then the bank can apply for an extension policy first. If the bank issues a loan to the borrower, the borrower still has no funds to repay, and repeated dunning is fruitless. The bank can only sue the lender through prosecution, and the court is responsible for auctioning the property, returning the money to the bank and leaving the rest to the lender.
If the proceeds from selling the house are not enough to offset the mortgage lender's arrears, the bank has the right to continue to ask the lender to pay off all the remaining arrears. In fact, auctioning the mortgage lender's house through the court is definitely the last resort of the bank. Usually, banks prefer to solve the problem of mortgage default by delaying the repayment of loans. Therefore, a large number of properties have to be auctioned by the court. If it is sold through the court, it will not be sold. Even if it is sold, it is not worth the price. Of course, banks do not want to see a large-scale wave of default. Once the real estate financial crisis happens, it will come.
Mortgage default is a serious problem. Whether it is a large-scale mortgage default or a personal mortgage default, banks will take the following measures to deal with it.
(1) Once the mortgage is off for one or two days, the bank will contact the mortgage lender by SMS and telephone, asking the lender to repay the loan, which is the first step of the bank.
(2) The lender continues to breach the contract and fails to repay the loan in time by SMS, telephone, etc. The bank must have taken the second step, that is, according to your personal information, notify the relevant personnel of the banking business department to make a door-to-door dunning, understand the lender's situation, and understand why the lender has stopped paying.
(3) If the bank staff comes to the door to demand payment, and the payment is still cut off, the bank will take the third step to remind the lender that there are legal procedures to demand payment, and send a lawyer's letter to the lender's home, informing that the lender will be sued in court if it fails to repay the loan.
(4) If the lawyer's letter issued is still invalid, the bank will take the fourth step. The bank will take the lender to court and ask the lender to repay through legal procedures. After the lawsuit, a court summons will be given to the borrower. Whether the lender finally appears in court or not, the court will make a judgment based on relevant evidence.
(5) After the final judgment of the court, if it is judged as Lao Lai, the credit will be classified as dishonesty, personal assets will be frozen, banks have the right to auction houses, and finally the auction money will be paid off with interest.
Based on the above five measures, banks will take the above five measures according to the degree of loan default, and the measures taken by banks according to the degree of loan default will naturally be different.
This problem has happened in reality. The American subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in 2007 is the best example. Subprime loan, that is, "subprime mortgage loan", is a mortgage loan provided by people with low repayment ability and poor credit.
In America, loans are a very common phenomenon. Locals rarely buy a house in full, usually with long-term loans. But unemployment and reemployment are very common phenomena here. These people with unstable income or even no income at all are defined as subprime lenders because their credit ratings are not up to standard.
During the years from 265438 to the beginning of the 20th century, the economic development of the United States was also very good. The government encourages banks to provide housing mortgage loans to those low-income people. Generally speaking, the down payment for buying a house is 30%, and the minimum is 20%. However, in those years, the down payment of American buyers was only 10% or even 5%, with the lowest down payment of 0, and the rest was through bank loans.
With the overheating of the American economy, especially the housing market, the government began to intervene in finance, and the most direct way was to raise the loan interest rate. As soon as the loan interest rate is raised, it means that the monthly supply of buyers will increase. For people with higher family income, a little more monthly payment is affordable. In other words, for low-income property buyers, monthly payment is a very heavy burden for them. Now that interest rates have increased, their pressure is even greater.
As a result, there have been cases of default in subprime mortgages. So all of a sudden, the bank's funds also appeared the pressure of turnover. Generally speaking, banks are short of money. For those small and medium-sized banks, the shortage of money is very fatal. In 2007, many small and medium-sized banks began to fail. Later, the crisis intensified, and even big investment banks like Lehman Brothers closed down.
In the housing loan market, if the borrower defaults, the most common practice is to repossess the property and resell it. If there is a large-scale default, the bank will accumulate a lot of real estate. A large number of properties put on the market will inevitably lead to a decline in house prices. When the decline is serious, even if the property is sold, it is not enough to repay the loan issued by the bank. At this time, the bank will lose a lot and will close down.
Therefore, banks are particularly afraid of a sharp drop in real estate prices. When prices plummet, many lenders will take the initiative to default. Because the lender's loss is the down payment at most, if it is not sold, the loss will be much greater. So after Japan's real estate bubble burst in the 1990s, a large number of banks went bankrupt.
If there is a "large-scale default" phenomenon, it must be the sequela of the bursting of the real estate bubble, and banks are actually helpless about it. For example, didn't Lehman Brothers, which everyone is familiar with, fail in the American subprime mortgage crisis in 2008? At the same time, America's "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac" failed to hold on.
Internationally, the classic cases of the bursting of the housing price bubble in the past few decades have nothing to do with the banking system, almost all of which are triggered by the monetary tightening policy, and ultimately they all bear huge risks themselves.
For example, in the 1990s, Japanese housing prices collapsed. At the beginning, because the Bank of Japan raised interest rates sharply, the whole house price fell by 70%. For another example, the "subprime mortgage crisis" that occurred 12 years ago was also because the Federal Reserve (equivalent to the US central bank, also known as the world central bank) raised interest rates for more than 10 times, which directly punctured the bubble box of the US housing market.
Judging from our current situation, the real estate market has experienced a relatively long period of tightening of financing channels, and the continuous directional monetary tightening in the real estate market will definitely bring greater pressure on housing prices. However, we should understand that the real estate market today is facing a directional monetary tightening, mainly because its position in China's economy has changed very significantly, from a pillar industry in the past 20 years to a non-pillar industry under the new normal of China's economy.
Generally speaking, when a large-scale mortgage default occurs, it will directly impact the liquidity risk of the entire banking system, and will also cause huge losses to the bank's core credit assets. In this case, some assets that are not strong enough will inevitably fall. Therefore, we have always stressed the importance of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations. Even under the principle of "the house is for living, not for speculation", we have repeatedly stressed that it is normal to prevent house prices from fluctuating.