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4. When will the mortgage interest rate of1end?
Leju buying a house news? A few days ago, the latest LPR quotation was announced. The data shows that the LPR of 1 year is 3.65%, and that of those over 5 years is 4.3%. According to the past data, the LPR quotation has remained unchanged for three consecutive months since September, and because of such nodes, there have been such voices: "The mortgage interest rate may rebound" and "the interest rate of 4. 1% will stop in 2022". Is this sound reliable? Let's analyze it from multiple dimensions.

What's the mortgage interest rate?

Mortgage interest rate plays an important role in buying a house. The downward adjustment of mortgage interest rate means that the monthly supply of buyers will be reduced. The increase in mortgage interest rate means that the monthly supply of buyers will increase. For buyers who borrow money to buy a house, how long the repayment period is and how high the mortgage interest rate is, to some extent, affect the buyers' willingness to buy a house. We can calculate an account, assuming that the commercial loan is 6.5438+0 million yuan, and the principal and interest are equal for 30 years, how much money can be saved by the fluctuation of mortgage interest rate when buying a house:

If the interest rate is 4. 1% and the monthly payment is 483 1.98, the accumulated repayment amount is1739,500 yuan.

At the beginning of this year, the interest rate of the first home loan in Bank of Zhengzhou was 5.85%. If the interest rate is 5.85%, the monthly payment is 5,899.41,and the total repayment is about 2123,700 yuan, about 384,200 yuan can be saved in 30 years, which is not a small sum.

In the past five years, it has been lowered three times, and the reduction rate is obvious.

Judging from the data of LPR this year, the quoted interest rate in the loan market has been lowered three times:

1 month, 1 year LPR and LPR over 5 years are lowered by 10 basis points and 5 basis points respectively;

In May, the LPR for more than five years was lowered by 15 basis points, which was the biggest decline since the LPR reform in August 20 19.

In August, the LPR of 1 year decreased by 5 basis points, and that of over 5 years decreased by 15 basis points.

It can be seen that the five-year LPR has been lowered three times, with a total loss of 35 basis points.

In addition, since August 22nd, when the interest rate of preferential bank loans over five years was adjusted to 4.3%, Zhengzhou quickly followed suit. From the previous "first home loan interest rate of 4.25%" to 4. 1%. In recent months, banks include Zhengzhou Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, China Everbright Bank, Industrial Bank and Huaxia Bank. 4. 1% commercial loan interest rate for the first suite and 4.9% commercial loan interest rate for the second suite have been implemented.

The lowest interest rate of the first home loan appeared at the end of 2008, when the interest rate of the first home loan was 4. 158%. This means that the lower limit of the national first home loan interest rate is lower than that in 2008.

Will the mortgage interest rate bottom out?

So, if we go back to the problem itself, will it really rebound? Let's analyze it. First, let's look at three aspects of determining how to price and implement LPR:

The first is the national level, which is determined by the People's Bank of China and the Insurance Regulatory Commission of the Bank of China. There are also local levels and commercial banks. On the basis of the national policy bottom line, local municipal governments determine the lower limit of the local commercial personal housing loan interest rate in accordance with the principle of "policy for the city". In other words, the loan interest rate can be adjusted on the basis of the national level. At the level of commercial banks, banks comprehensively consider factors such as capital cost and credit risk, and negotiate with borrowers to determine the specific interest rate level.

Generally speaking, the first level is basically dominant.

So at the national level, what is the trend of mortgage interest rate? We can interpret it from several documents: