1. Risk quantitative assessment models mainly include KMV model, JP Morgan’s VAR model, RORAC model and EVA model.
2. Risk quantification assessment models mainly include KMV model, JP Morgan’s VAR model, RORAC model and EVA model:
1) KMV - credit risk model based on stock price Historically, banks have long ignored stock market prices when making loan decisions. The KMV model is based on the assumption that changes in a company's stock price provide a reliable basis for the assessment of corporate creditworthiness. As a result, lending banks can use this important risk management tool to deal with problems encountered in the financial market. Although few banks use the KMV model as the only credit risk indicator in loan pricing, many banks use it as an early warning tool for credit risk levels.
2) JP Morgan credit risk asset portfolio model - VAR In 1997, JP Morgan launched a credit risk asset portfolio model - credit matrix, which introduced a new risk management concept. That is, a timely rating of the possibility of asset value loss based on changes in credit quality. The main question it reflects is: If the situation is not good next year, what losses will occur to my assets.
3) RAROC model: RAROC assigns a "capital charge" to each transaction, the amount of which is equal to the maximum expected loss of the transaction in one year (after tax, 99% confidence level). The higher the risk of the transaction, the more capital it requires and the more cash flow or income it requires. RAROC can be widely used in bank management, such as interest rate risk management, exchange rate risk management, equity management, product risk, credit risk management, etc.
4) EVA model: Economic Value Added (EVA for short) ) has been increasingly adopted by more and more companies in Western developed countries such as the United States to quantify the degree of realization of the company's shareholder wealth maximization goal. Compared with traditional accounting profit, EVA takes into account not only the cost of debt capital (interest), but also the cost of common stock. From an economic point of view, accounting profits overestimate real profits, and EVA overcomes this weakness of traditional accounting.
Risk quantification refers to evaluating the range of possible project results through the estimation of risks and risk interactions. An essential part of risk quantification is to determine which practices require the development of countermeasures. Risk quantification involves the assessment of risks and the interactions between risks, and using this assessment to analyze the possible outputs of the project.