Board of Directors: You are a financial regulator who is very concerned about global changes. At present, the risks in the CDS market in the United States have not been fully released, the way out for Citigroup is still unclear, the new rescue plan of the new government is still unclear, and deflation expectations are pervasive ... How to evaluate the latest changes in the financial situation in the United States and the world?
Yan Qingmin: Since the financial collapse of the new century in April 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has lasted for 20 months. Not only has it not bottomed out, but it is getting worse. At present, it has spread from the financial sector to the real economy sector, triggering the first simultaneous recession in Europe, America and Japan since World War II, and further affecting emerging market countries and developing countries. To this end, countries around the world have successively introduced a series of economic stimulus plans. Recently, US President-elect Barack Obama once again proposed an economic stimulus plan with an estimated amount of $775 billion, of which the scale of tax reduction may exceed $300 billion. Domestically, the central government held an economic work conference, and the State Council successively issued policies and plans to expand domestic demand, such as "Ten Articles for China", "Nine Articles for China to Promote Development" and "Thirty Articles for Finance". Although all countries are actively responding to the crisis, this large-scale international economic recession may last for one or two years, and the recovery of the financial industry will take some time.
Board of Directors: Affected by the crisis, foreign banks have recently cashed in China Bank and China Construction Bank at low prices. Are you worried? How to treat the relationship between Huijin's increase in A shares and foreign capital's decrease in H shares? Should China's relevant departments take countermeasures?
Yan Qingmin: Liquidity is still insufficient. In addition, the lock-up period in the original agreement was three years, so the reduction is understandable, because after the reduction, it is still a major shareholder and does not affect the shareholding ratio. The market is not very good now, and I'm not sure. Relatively speaking, this price is ok. Countermeasures are still out of the question, because I don't know if there are other deep-seated factors.
For Huijin, strategically speaking, it should hold shares and increase holdings. In fact, you can hold a part of foreign banks (equity), so that everyone's interests can be tied more tightly. Dilution and anti-dilution, overweight and anti-overweight, through two-way reasonable interaction, safeguard the right to speak capital and form a new reasonable corporate governance class, which I think is of strategic significance.
Board of Directors: As an official who directly supervises and participates in the reform, restructuring and listing of ICBC, BOC and CCB, what is your specific evaluation of the three banks?
Yan Qingmin: BOC and CCB, including ICBC, have their own characteristics due to the differences in customer base and growth base. Relatively speaking, the scale of CCB with 5 trillion assets is relatively small, and we believe that its operation will be more stable through reform and reorganization.
The customer base of CCB is relatively concentrated and single, and the growth foundation is mainly construction enterprises. This line is clearer. The proportion of real estate is also moderate, including mortgage and full-caliber loans for development, which is expected to be at most 1/3.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China undertook a large number of industrial and commercial credits spun off from the People's Bank of China in the 1980s, some of which are prohibited industries, some of which are high energy consumption, high pollution and resource-based, so it will gradually withdraw, and the withdrawal process will be long, which will lead to some non-performing loans. Through the share reform, we have solved some problems, but still left many restrictions, such as steel and electrolytic aluminum. For the real estate industry, the credit ratio of ICBC is not too high.
Bank of China was initially positioned as an external professional bank with many overseas branches, involving many foreign-funded enterprises, import and export enterprises and some industrial and commercial enterprises. This time, BOC Hong Kong issued a profit warning because of the mini Lehman bonds.
Board of Directors: What are the realistic problems and dilemmas of China's financial system under reflection? What further reforms are needed?
Yan Qingmin: Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economic development has made remarkable achievements, and financial system construction and financial supervision have also made great progress. In particular, the dominant state-owned commercial banks have achieved initial results in corporate governance, internal control, accountability mechanism construction and financial situation improvement through joint-stock reform and successful listing, which laid an important foundation for actively responding to the financial crisis. However, compared with the international banking industry, there is still a big gap in the core competitiveness of China's banking industry in terms of corporate governance, financial innovation ability and effectiveness of risk management.
Among them, corporate governance is the most important and key. As your board magazine said, how can the board of directors with China characteristics play a central role?
Therefore, IT is necessary to "take advantage of the situation to promote reform", on the basis of systematic reflection and lessons learned from the crisis, continue to deepen the reform of institutional mechanisms, effectively improve the corporate governance level of banks, formulate scientific development strategies, strengthen comprehensive risk management, cultivate financial innovation capabilities, and accelerate the construction of IT systems. In other words, we should do our own thing and devote ourselves to comprehensively enhancing the international competitiveness of China's banking industry.
Board of Directors: The lack of self-governance in the banking industry is an important reason for its weak risk control ability. Chairman Liu said recently that now is the best time for the banking industry to improve corporate governance. How to grasp the degree of external supervision in the current situation that the authorization of the board of directors is not in place and lacks independence? Under the current situation, how can the banking industry improve its internal governance level?
Yan Qingmin: Corporate governance is the key to the innovation and development of banks, but it is precisely an area beyond the supervision. What external supervision can do is often to strengthen principle-oriented supervision, such as clarifying corporate governance principles and recommending good practices to the banking industry through guidelines. More importantly, the bank is essentially an information processing center, and its profit lies in having more information than its counterparties, and having more abundant and perfect information processing means. External supervisors will never have more information than bank insiders.
After five years of reform, the banking board of directors has played a part, but the overall feeling is that in the process of corporate governance, the special committees under the board of directors (such as audit, management, strategy, compensation and other functional committees) have not fully played their roles and need to be further improved.
Therefore, effective supervision needs to guide and urge banks to strengthen their self-discipline and self-management functions, especially to give full play to the positive role of the board of directors and its special committees, focusing on and evaluating the board structure, the independence and professional quality of directors, the due diligence of directors and the role of special committees, so as to form internal and external synergy and improve the internal governance level of banks.
This is also related to our characteristics. The party secretary is generally the chairman of the board, and the chairman is also the party secretary, who is re-elected for two terms. How to play their role needs further exploration.
Board of Directors: For large-scale joint-stock companies with absolute state control, will investors strengthen the comprehensive assessment of the operation of the board of directors of subordinate banks in the future banking supervision framework?
Yan Qingmin: Strictly speaking, there are not many evaluations of it now.
Different from the state-owned assets management system, the Central Organization Department directly manages 1 1 banking financial institutions (the establishment of diplomatic relations between workers and peasants+three policy banks+CITIC, China Everbright+CIC), mainly the management of cadres.
As the investor, CIC can't make a 100% assessment of the banks that have already carried out the shareholding system reform. It can only assess the three categories and seven indicators of these banks to measure their operating conditions, including the loan ratio of assets, ROE \ ROA, cost-income ratio \ provision coverage ratio \ capital adequacy ratio, etc. , is an international common practice index.
Banks are monopolized, indebted and uncompetitive, and need a high degree of monopoly and centralization by the central government, which is quite special. Therefore, our evaluation of the bank's board of directors is different from that of SASAC, and we can only sacrifice some efficiency to pursue safety.
Board of Directors: From the perspective of bank supervisors, you have always emphasized the implementation of macro-prudential supervision. Is this a long-term strategy or a short-term choice during the economic crisis? What is the focus of macro-prudential supervision after the working conference on banking supervision system in 2009?
Yan Qingmin: The financial industry is a high-debt, high-leverage and high-risk industry. For the whole economy, banks and the financial services they provide are public and have strong externalities. Therefore, strengthening macro-prudential supervision is a long-term strategy, not a short-term choice during the current crisis. On the one hand, bank operation has obvious pro-economic cycle characteristics and needs macro-prudential supervision for the economic cycle; On the other hand, it is the need to effectively guard against the systemic risks of banks. Under the current situation, the focus of macro-prudential supervision is to urge the banking industry to adhere to the principle of prudent operation, strengthen comprehensive risk management and promote the steady development of the banking industry under the overall requirements of "ensuring growth, promoting development (restructuring) and preventing risks". First, in accordance with the principle of "keeping pressure and treating it differently", through the adjustment of credit structure, we will earnestly implement the national industrial policy and do a good job in preventing credit risks. Second, attach great importance to the systemic risks in financial markets and effectively prevent the transmission and spread of cross-market risks. Especially for innovative financial products such as wealth management products, management should be strengthened in accordance with the requirements of "controllable risks, calculable costs and full disclosure of information". Third, the economic downturn is often a period of rising business risks, which requires banks to do a good job in compliance management, case prevention and control and other preventive work.
Board of Directors: You think macro-prudential supervision should focus on coordination and collaboration. Some Shanghai scholars pointed out that China should establish an inter-departmental macro-early warning mechanism as soon as possible. What do you think of this?
Yan Qingmin: Macro early warning is very important, but to be scientific and effective, it needs a process of continuous running-in and exploration. I think it can be explored from two levels: on the one hand, explore the establishment of a good inter-departmental consultation and coordination mechanism at the government level. At present, there are many departments involved in economic macro-control functions in China, including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank, etc., as well as industries or industrial departments, so policy coordination and information sharing among departments are very important. On the other hand, in order to give full play to the positive role of market mechanism in macro-early warning, measures must be taken to support and encourage all kinds of market players, including banks and other financial institutions, rating companies, consulting companies and research institutions, to increase their analysis and judgment on macro-economy, to give full play to the advantages of "invisible hand" in macro-early warning, to realize the coordinated development and interaction between the government and the market, and to improve the effectiveness of macro-early warning.
Board of Directors: You just mentioned that we should attach great importance to systemic risks in financial markets. Real estate market risks and credit risks are also important aspects of macro-supervision. What is the current exposure of these risks? Can you predict the changes in the first quarter or even the first half of the year? As a highly open region, has Shanghai made corresponding emergency preparations for possible changes in liquidity and institutional assets and liabilities in the financial market?
Yan Qingmin: This year, especially the first half of the year, is indeed a critical period full of challenges, and the impact of the international financial crisis on China will be further revealed. There are some problems in wealth management products. For the real estate market, some small and medium-sized developers with insufficient strength may face greater cash flow pressure. At the same time, the credit risks of some import and export enterprises and enterprise groups that have been hit hard will be further exposed. Shanghai banking industry is actively preparing from three aspects: first, strengthen relevant stress tests, grasp the direction and trend of risk evolution, make adequate provisions, and write off more bad debts; Second, strengthen scenario analysis and simulation, and prepare for risk disposal and response; Third, pay close attention to loan concentration and associated enterprise risks to prevent the occurrence and appearance of systemic risks.
Board of Directors: As a part of off-balance-sheet assets of banks, the risks of wealth management products have always been concerned. From the perspective of supervision, how to prevent risks?
Yan Qingmin: Because of the abundant liquidity in China, banks are trying their best to increase the use of bill tools; In addition, putting letters of credit, guarantees and other businesses off the balance sheet can also reduce the pressure on capital adequacy ratio and avoid supervision. Of course, there are some problems. For example, some wealth management products linked to the market will expire around the Spring Festival, especially those invested in QDII, and the risk of floating losses is more prominent.
Different from domestic banks selling wealth management products, many banks in the world implement the form of professional counters for the sales of wealth management products, with full disclosure of information and the help of analysts and financial consultants.
What regulators need to do is risk warning, hoping that banks will be "responsible to sellers", subdivide customers and strengthen education for investors. We have urged the banking industry to analyze and predict each product, strengthen communication and explanation in advance, and formulate countermeasures. In the second quarter, the banking supervision department will introduce new management measures and guidelines, evaluate the qualifications of banks to sell wealth management products, authorize them at different levels, and implement selective regulatory intervention.
"Board of Directors": In June last year11-65438+February, bill financing accounted for a large proportion of new bank loans. For a single bank, the risk may be limited, but the growth of bill financing may push up the systemic risk in the future, because the caution in quick delivery and discount is different, and the loan remains in the bank's balance sheet. What do you think of this? What regulatory measures does the banking supervision department have?
Yan Qingmin: Bill financing is an important way for enterprises to diversify their financing. It has the advantages of low financing cost and simple and flexible procedures, which is conducive to optimizing the relationship between banks and enterprises and standardizing the relationship between creditor's rights and debts among enterprises. Bill financing is also an important channel for banks to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. At present, mainly acceptance bills. The regulatory authorities actively encourage the standardized development of bill financing business, increase the endorsement and transfer of eligible bills, encourage large enterprises and upstream and downstream enterprises to increase the use of bills under the current situation, support commercial credit expansion through bank credit, and support stable and rapid economic development. At the same time, we should also attach great importance to the development of bill financing business and the risk problems in bill market transactions, strengthen risk early warning and supervision guidance in time, and require banks to further standardize the development of bill business, strengthen risk early warning function, strengthen collection and preservation measures, and effectively prevent credit risks.
Board of Directors: The government encourages bank credit innovation, but it does not promote the expected innovation of the industry (such as asset securitization) much. How to grasp the relationship between supervision and innovation under the new situation?
Yan Qingmin: Financial innovation is the driving force for the sustainable development of the banking industry and an inevitable requirement for better serving economic development. Financial development itself is an evolutionary process in which innovation development and innovation supervision interact and promote each other, so innovation cannot and should not stop. Different from the excessive financial innovation in developed countries, the problem of China's financial development at present is the lack of innovation ability, especially the lack of high value-added independent innovation and risk management skills of financial innovation. The regulatory authorities will adhere to the principle of "paying equal attention to standardization and development, and cultivating and preventing risks simultaneously", give play to the role of the banking industry as the main body of innovation, and guide the banking industry to correctly handle three relationships in financial innovation: First, scientifically handle the balance between short-term interests and long-term interests, and attach importance to the cultivation of innovation ability from the perspective of enhancing future core competitiveness; Second, we should pay attention to the coordinated development of off-balance sheet business innovation; Third, we should attach importance to risk assessment and moral self-discipline in the process of innovation, and strengthen the consciousness of "the seller is responsible", especially the evaluation of customer suitability.
Board of Directors: After the government injected capital into the economy, bank infrastructure loans increased rapidly in June 5438+0 1 and June 5438+February, but other types of loans were obviously reluctant to lend. The China Banking Regulatory Commission recently proposed to increase lending on the premise of prudence. Do you think that in order to accomplish political tasks, banks will weaken risk control in actual operation, leading to a new increase in non-performing assets?
Yan Qingmin: From a national perspective, it is a successful experience to rely on investment to stimulate the economy. But investment really depends on the construction of infrastructure, which has a large driving coefficient and drives many industries. Although the term is long, the repayment is guaranteed. As long as the matching funds are arranged, banks are willing to do it, and there is no problem that the market is not marketable. Processing and manufacturing enterprises have periodicity and small driving coefficient, depending on which industry they belong to. No (putting pressure on the bank).
As an important part of the macroeconomic system, banking plays a vital role in economic operation. Macroeconomic operation will directly affect the operational effectiveness of banks, and then affect the security, liquidity and profitability of bank assets. Only by ensuring the steady and rapid development of the macro economy can the banking industry develop steadily. This requires the banking industry to actively prepare for "maintaining growth, promoting development and preventing risks" in accordance with the opinions of "Thirty Financial Articles", increase credit support in accordance with the principle of "maintaining pressure and treating it differently", and actively promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure through the adjustment of credit structure to achieve coordinated economic and financial development. At the same time, banking financial institutions should strictly implement the "three checks" system of loans in accordance with the principle of prudent operation, actively strive for the initiative, realize the forward risk management, and prevent the rebound of non-performing loans.
Board of Directors: SME loans have always been difficult. How will the banking industry give practical help?
Yan Qingmin: Small business financing is a worldwide problem. According to the statistics of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, more than half of the financing of small enterprises in the world is equity financing; Another 45% is debt financing, of which nearly 20% is bank loans. Even in the financing structure of small enterprises in developed countries, the proportion of real loans is very low. Due to the natural defects of small enterprises, banks are actually willing to lend large loans instead of small loans, and are willing to lend rich loans instead of poor loans.
Therefore, the financial department should allocate considerable funds as guarantee, discount interest and support funds. On this basis, bank funds play the role of grafting. If finance can't get out, banks will be thrown to the front line, and new bad debts will be formed later.
"Board of Directors": "Financial Article 30" tries to encourage banks to increase credit supply by establishing an interest-oriented mechanism, so as to achieve the consistency of interests between the government and banks, but there is great uncertainty about the time, method and effect of the establishment of this mechanism. For example, the restrictions on the write-off of bad debts for SME loans and agriculture-related loans have relaxed policies and taxes for large banks, but how to operate them specifically and who will pay the bill in the end? How to grasp the degree of decentralized banks? How to treat the progress and prospect of interest-oriented mechanism?
Yan Qingmin: The application of "Financial Article 30" to the incentive and guidance mechanism fully reflects the recognition of the market mechanism and the dominant position of financial institutions in the market. It is a positive measure for the effective coordination of fiscal and taxation policies and monetary policies under the current situation, which is conducive to banking financial institutions to increase credit support for small and medium-sized enterprises and agriculture-related fields, and is more conducive to further promoting the process of economic marketization reform. Although due to time constraints, relevant specific policies and measures have not been further clarified, all relevant departments are stepping up their argumentation and formulating supporting policies. I believe relevant policies will be clarified as soon as possible. It is believed that the introduction of the above supporting policies will further promote the banking financial institutions to increase credit support, speed up the write-off of bad debts, consolidate the operating foundation and promote the sustainable development of banking financial institutions.
Board of Directors: In 2009, the banking industry will face higher credit cost, credit risk and lower net interest margin, the growth rate of industry net profit will slow down, and the non-performing loan ratio will increase. Any suggestions for the banking depression (especially in the first half of this year)?
Yan Qingmin: This year, especially in the first half of this year, the economic situation may be more severe, and the corresponding risks will be further exposed. This requires banking financial institutions to actively take measures to meet the challenges: First, in accordance with the requirements of "maintaining growth, promoting development and preventing risks", adhere to the principle of "maintaining pressure and treating differently", strengthen and improve credit services to meet reasonable capital needs. In particular, credit support should be given to enterprises with good fundamentals, good credit records, market and competitiveness but temporary operational or financial difficulties. Second, strengthen the innovation of non-credit services, continue to expand the development space of intermediary business such as consulting and agency, further optimize the income structure of the banking industry, and enhance the stability of bank income. Third, there is a certain tolerance in supervision, which is also a practical approach. According to the continuous regulatory requirements of "accurate classification-adequate provision-actual profit-capital adequacy ratio reaching the standard", we will lay a solid foundation for sustainable development and ensure stable operation.
Board of Directors: Finally, after a series of policy guidance and reforms, what is your vision for the foreseeable future of China's financial industry and financial system?
Yan Qingmin: In the past two years, the crisis has been used to promote reform. First of all, we must deepen reform, second, we must expand opening up, and third, we must continue to promote innovation. Banks can't solve their own system problems without taking the road of reform, opening up and innovation. After becoming a listed company, high market value does not mean good management level. What everyone ultimately cares about is competitiveness, and this process will take several years.