1October 8th 10. On the first day after the National Day holiday, the mortgage interest rate will refer to LPR pricing.
After the global interest rate cut "Super Thursday", LPR (loan market quotation) was lowered for the second time in a row as scheduled.
On September 20th, the data released by the National Interbank Funding Center showed that 1 year LPR was 4.20%, which was 5 basis points lower than the previous quotation. The two quotations were all lowered by 1 1 basis point. Varieties over 5 years are maintained at 4.85%.
Under the tide of global interest rate cuts, interest rate quotations such as LPR and MLF are regarded as the "wind vane" of China's monetary policy. Previously, after the expiration of this month, the two MLFs either did not continue, or continued to reduce the RRR by the same amount, which triggered the expected cooling of monetary policy easing. On Thursday, the list of central banks that cut interest rates expanded again, and the monetary authorities of the United States, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, United Arab Emirates and other countries cut interest rates one after another. Bank of China made a net investment of17 billion yuan through reverse repurchase, and the reverse repurchase rate remained unchanged. The market is concerned about the LPR quotation on the 20th.
According to industry insiders, the Bank of China has not joined the global interest rate cut, and the space for flexible adjustment of domestic monetary policy will be further expanded in the future. In addition, since LPR quotation consists of policy interest rate and bank spread quotation, the downward adjustment of LPR reflects the "concession" of banks without any change before the policy interest rate, and corporate loans linked to LPR will benefit. However, the mortgage interest rate has not changed much, indicating that the regulation of the real estate market is still strict.
Why does 1 focus on reducing LPR instead of cutting interest rates across the board?
Let the financial industry feed back entities and reduce the burden on enterprises.
In the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut. This is the second time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this year, and the interval between the two cuts is less than two months. According to the research report of CICC, the Fed is entering the road of accelerating interest rate cuts. It is expected that after the interest rate cut in September, the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points again in the fourth quarter.
On the same day, the Brazilian central bank announced that it would cut the benchmark interest rate to 5.5%. This is the second time that Brazil's central bank has followed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and both of them have cut interest rates by a large margin. On the same day, the central banks of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates all "ran" to follow up.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, many central banks around the world have joined the tide of interest rate cuts. The industry is looking forward to finding out "Will China Bank follow up?" From the operation of every monetary policy tool. This week is regarded as a "key week" for the direction of monetary policy, because it brings together the RRR cut, the expiration of MLF (medium-term lending facility), and the second quotation of LPR.
Among them, LPR, whose "appearance rate" was not high before, attracted attention because of a reform in mid-August this year. On August 17, the central bank announced that the open market operating interest rate (mainly referred to as the medium-term lending convenience MLF interest rate) was the "anchor", and the loan market quotation was quoted to the National Interbank Funding Center in the form of bonus points. Banks should mainly refer to LPR pricing in newly issued loans and adopt LPR as the pricing benchmark in floating rate loan contracts.
The first quotation of the new LPR released on August 20th shows that the 1 year LPR is 4.25%, which is 10 basis point lower than the benchmark loan interest rate and 6 basis points lower than the original LPR. The 5-year LPR is 4.85%. At that time, many market participants thought that the central bank "cut interest rates". At least from the perspective of the loan market, the rise or fall of LPR will have the effect of raising interest rates or lowering interest rates.
However, the downward adjustment of 6 basis points at that time was not large enough in the market, and there was still room for downward adjustment. Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, said that behind the LPR reform, due to the high debt of the real economy, a natural idea is to lower the interest rate level, so that the financial industry can feed back the entity and reduce the burden on enterprises. From the data of financial market, the problem of financing difficulty and high cost caused by liquidity stratification has not been solved.
As for why it is not a comprehensive interest rate cut, Jiang Chao analyzed that it is completely correct for the central bank to be cautious about a comprehensive interest rate cut, because the market is often short-sighted, only looking at the immediate interests and ignoring the long-term interests. A comprehensive interest rate cut will not help reduce China's debt burden at all, but will stimulate leverage. The last interest rate cut was in 20 15, and the interest rate dropped sharply, which stimulated the residents to borrow a lot to buy a house, which made the debt ratio of China society rise again. "Imagine, if China cuts interest rates across the board again, will it be beneficial to the real economy or to the real estate and financial industries?" Chao Jiang said.
Focus 2: What signal did this downward adjustment release?
The space for flexible adjustment of monetary policy is expanded.
As the LPR quotation on September 20th met expectations, the overall stock and debt were stable. In early trading, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher, and then the three major indexes remained in a narrow range throughout the day. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to close at 3006 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29% to close at 988 1 point; The GEM index fell 0.03% to close at 1705.
Guosen Securities said that LPR's interest rate cut will benefit the stock market from three aspects, including alleviating the financial burden of enterprises, helping to stimulate demand, boosting economic growth and improving corporate profit growth expectations.
The Li Qilin team of Lianxun Securities believes that the downward adjustment is limited. Although the downward adjustment can reduce the capital cost of banks to a certain extent, the higher cost of deposits and liabilities determines that the comprehensive debt cost of banks is still high and the quotation will be relatively cautious. The team believes that there is still a high spread between LPR and yield to maturity (AAA rated credit bonds), and it is expected that LPR will continue to be slightly lowered in the future. Methodologically, it is expected that the spread will continue to be compressed in the short term and then the MLF will be lowered.
The industry has anticipated the reduction of LPR. Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, told the Beijing News that the policy interest rate has not changed in the two parts of the LPR quotation, and the bank spread is mainly affected by the debt cost, supply and demand, risk premium and other factors of the quotation bank. The central bank continues to increase market liquidity, especially after reducing the debt cost of banks through RRR reduction this week, which will be reflected in the new round of bank quotations, so LPR is expected to decline slightly.
In this regard, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that the downward adjustment of LPR shows that the flexible adjustment space of China's monetary policy has expanded after the global monetary policy has turned into a loose track. Different from the Fed's policy of cutting interest rates, domestic MLF interest rates and other policy interest rates have not been adjusted. LPR's "interest rate cut" is more due to the decline of market interest rate in the process of interest rate marketization reform. This also means that after the completion of the "channel" of interest rate marketization, "wide money" began to accelerate the transmission to "wide credit".
Citic Securities believes that under the background of general interest rate cuts overseas, the Bank of China did not immediately follow the Fed's comprehensive interest rate cuts, and the policy is still trying to stabilize the economy under the combination of loose money quantity and active fiscal efforts. The market's expectation that the Bank of China will follow the Fed's interest rate cut will come to an end.
The central bank has previously made it clear that LPR reform cannot replace monetary policy. Wen Bin believes that there is still room and necessity for lowering policy interest rates (MLF and TMLF) in the fourth quarter. Externally, as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice this year, the central banks of major economies in the world cut interest rates one after another and restarted loose monetary policy, which provided space for China's central bank to cut interest rates. Internally, there is downward pressure on the economy, and the growth rate of industrial production, investment and consumption slows down. Therefore, timely and moderate reduction of policy interest rate is conducive to directly and effectively reducing the financing cost of the real economy sector through LPR mechanism, which is very necessary for stabilizing and expanding domestic demand and ensuring the economic operation in a reasonable range in the fourth quarter.
Focus 3 Will the cost of buying a house drop?
LPR has not changed for more than five years, and the mortgage still maintains a high pressure situation.
For buyers, LPR is also related to the mortgage interest rate. According to the regulations of the central bank, on June 8 10, the first day after the National Day holiday, the mortgage interest rate will be priced with reference to LPR.
The Beijing News reporter recently learned from a number of banks that some banks have made it clear that the mortgage interest rate will be linked to LPR, but many banks have not yet issued relevant notices. According to the data of Zhuge's housing search, the interest rate of the first suite in Beijing is not less than 55 basis points on the basis of LPR, and the interest rate of the second suite is not less than 105 basis points. According to the LPR of more than five years on September 20, the floating lower limit of personal mortgage in Beijing is 5.4%, and the floating lower limit of second suite is 5.9%. According to the Beijing News reporter, the current interest rate of the first suite of banks generally rises on the basis of 4.9% 10%, which is 5.39%; The second suite generally rose by 20%, with an increase of 5.88%. "The new quotation will not be much different from the current level," said several bank employees.
Earlier, the central bank made it clear that reforming and improving the LPR formation mechanism is conducive to reducing the loan interest rate, mainly for corporate financing costs, and the mortgage interest rate will not be lowered accordingly, which has no direct impact on the RMB exchange rate.
Guo Shiying, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, said that in terms of mortgage, the LPR has not changed for more than five years, that is, the mortgage has always maintained a high-pressure situation and has not been relaxed. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that there may be a downward trend in the follow-up of LPR in five years. Specifically, in the real estate sector, it is not ruled out that there will still be a slight increase in basis points, which will lead to a slight increase in the final pricing interest rate, but it is expected that the impact will be small and will not cause too much burden. In addition, if the bank loan amount is sufficient, it is actually a good thing for buyers to apply for loans.